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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,330 MW (15.7%) too low at 26 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vienna).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,330 MW (15.7%) too low at 26 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Austria came 11 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 137 MW, against average demand of 6,179 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 61% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.2%
Bias+0.3%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss1,330 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+15 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,330 MW (15.7%) too low at 26 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 7,141 MW, reported 8,471 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Austria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Austria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:004,819 MW4,517 MW
13 Sept, 15:004,857 MW4,504 MW
13 Sept, 16:005,025 MW4,799 MW
13 Sept, 17:005,497 MW5,374 MW
13 Sept, 18:005,994 MW5,881 MW
13 Sept, 19:006,107 MW6,046 MW
13 Sept, 20:005,973 MW5,988 MW
13 Sept, 21:005,703 MW5,745 MW
13 Sept, 22:005,559 MW5,657 MW
13 Sept, 23:005,236 MW5,319 MW
14 Sept, 00:005,200 MW5,537 MW
14 Sept, 01:004,959 MW5,295 MW
14 Sept, 02:004,866 MW5,193 MW
14 Sept, 03:004,839 MW5,110 MW
14 Sept, 04:005,034 MW5,245 MW
14 Sept, 05:005,679 MW5,829 MW
14 Sept, 06:006,743 MW6,815 MW
14 Sept, 07:007,395 MW7,365 MW
14 Sept, 08:007,711 MW7,648 MW
14 Sept, 09:007,658 MW7,563 MW
14 Sept, 10:007,527 MW7,529 MW
14 Sept, 11:007,353 MW7,365 MW
14 Sept, 12:007,190 MW7,115 MW
14 Sept, 13:007,121 MW6,973 MW
14 Sept, 14:007,104 MW6,875 MW
14 Sept, 15:006,934 MW6,909 MW
14 Sept, 16:007,083 MW7,095 MW
14 Sept, 17:007,385 MW7,365 MW
14 Sept, 18:007,545 MW7,620 MW
14 Sept, 19:007,450 MW7,529 MW
14 Sept, 20:007,155 MW7,193 MW
14 Sept, 21:006,650 MW6,702 MW
14 Sept, 22:006,296 MW6,369 MW
14 Sept, 23:005,818 MW5,888 MW
15 Sept, 00:005,553 MW5,262 MW
15 Sept, 01:005,305 MW5,016 MW
15 Sept, 02:005,217 MW4,922 MW
15 Sept, 03:005,149 MW4,888 MW
15 Sept, 04:005,322 MW5,082 MW
15 Sept, 05:005,900 MW5,731 MW
15 Sept, 06:006,920 MW6,804 MW
15 Sept, 07:007,455 MW7,467 MW
15 Sept, 08:007,655 MW7,800 MW
15 Sept, 09:007,444 MW7,760 MW
15 Sept, 10:007,393 MW7,628 MW
15 Sept, 11:007,248 MW7,443 MW
15 Sept, 12:006,951 MW7,193 MW
15 Sept, 13:006,830 MW7,116 MW
15 Sept, 14:006,798 MW7,103 MW
15 Sept, 15:006,874 MW6,995 MW
15 Sept, 16:006,943 MW7,155 MW
15 Sept, 17:007,208 MW7,465 MW
15 Sept, 18:007,456 MW7,628 MW
15 Sept, 19:007,423 MW7,536 MW
15 Sept, 20:007,136 MW7,233 MW
15 Sept, 21:006,664 MW6,718 MW
15 Sept, 22:006,262 MW6,362 MW
15 Sept, 23:005,809 MW5,876 MW
16 Sept, 00:005,543 MW5,615 MW
16 Sept, 01:005,336 MW5,367 MW
16 Sept, 02:005,268 MW5,278 MW
16 Sept, 03:005,223 MW5,206 MW
16 Sept, 04:005,323 MW5,378 MW
16 Sept, 05:005,907 MW5,964 MW
16 Sept, 06:006,962 MW6,997 MW
16 Sept, 07:007,477 MW7,538 MW
16 Sept, 08:007,622 MW7,750 MW
16 Sept, 09:007,482 MW7,555 MW
16 Sept, 10:007,421 MW7,446 MW
16 Sept, 11:007,453 MW7,293 MW
16 Sept, 12:007,222 MW6,981 MW
16 Sept, 13:007,082 MW6,851 MW
16 Sept, 14:007,035 MW6,812 MW
16 Sept, 15:007,110 MW6,882 MW
16 Sept, 16:007,198 MW7,025 MW
16 Sept, 17:007,357 MW7,302 MW
16 Sept, 18:007,541 MW7,554 MW
16 Sept, 19:007,482 MW7,519 MW
16 Sept, 20:007,175 MW7,221 MW
16 Sept, 21:006,662 MW6,741 MW
16 Sept, 22:006,353 MW6,332 MW
16 Sept, 23:005,900 MW5,874 MW
17 Sept, 00:005,482 MW5,613 MW
17 Sept, 01:005,221 MW5,365 MW
17 Sept, 02:005,146 MW5,278 MW
17 Sept, 03:005,077 MW5,206 MW
17 Sept, 04:005,202 MW5,377 MW
17 Sept, 05:005,832 MW5,963 MW
17 Sept, 06:006,907 MW6,997 MW
17 Sept, 07:007,546 MW7,537 MW
17 Sept, 08:007,804 MW7,747 MW
17 Sept, 09:007,816 MW7,552 MW
17 Sept, 10:007,922 MW7,444 MW
17 Sept, 11:007,762 MW7,291 MW
17 Sept, 12:007,468 MW6,976 MW
17 Sept, 13:007,307 MW6,843 MW
17 Sept, 14:007,212 MW6,804 MW
17 Sept, 15:007,124 MW6,874 MW
17 Sept, 16:007,204 MW7,017 MW
17 Sept, 17:007,419 MW7,296 MW
17 Sept, 18:007,541 MW7,550 MW
17 Sept, 19:007,423 MW7,515 MW
17 Sept, 20:007,096 MW7,220 MW
17 Sept, 21:006,648 MW6,739 MW
17 Sept, 22:006,309 MW6,331 MW
17 Sept, 23:005,861 MW5,874 MW
18 Sept, 00:005,569 MW5,644 MW
18 Sept, 01:005,318 MW5,362 MW
18 Sept, 02:005,201 MW5,252 MW
18 Sept, 03:005,150 MW5,172 MW
18 Sept, 04:005,298 MW5,315 MW
18 Sept, 05:005,913 MW5,931 MW
18 Sept, 06:006,929 MW6,952 MW
18 Sept, 07:007,449 MW7,623 MW
18 Sept, 08:007,539 MW8,030 MW
18 Sept, 09:007,374 MW7,985 MW
18 Sept, 10:007,325 MW7,957 MW
18 Sept, 11:007,212 MW7,733 MW
18 Sept, 12:007,017 MW7,371 MW
18 Sept, 13:006,859 MW7,153 MW
18 Sept, 14:006,616 MW6,976 MW
18 Sept, 15:006,677 MW6,987 MW
18 Sept, 16:006,852 MW7,134 MW
18 Sept, 17:007,169 MW7,353 MW
18 Sept, 18:007,306 MW7,548 MW
18 Sept, 19:007,179 MW7,335 MW
18 Sept, 20:006,848 MW7,008 MW
18 Sept, 21:006,421 MW6,501 MW
18 Sept, 22:006,085 MW6,163 MW
18 Sept, 23:005,637 MW5,732 MW
19 Sept, 00:005,232 MW5,380 MW
19 Sept, 01:004,936 MW5,089 MW
19 Sept, 02:004,816 MW4,961 MW
19 Sept, 03:004,690 MW4,851 MW
19 Sept, 04:004,745 MW4,875 MW
19 Sept, 05:004,982 MW5,068 MW
19 Sept, 06:005,344 MW5,440 MW
19 Sept, 07:005,583 MW5,715 MW
19 Sept, 08:005,720 MW5,938 MW
19 Sept, 09:005,817 MW6,016 MW
19 Sept, 10:005,764 MW5,999 MW
19 Sept, 11:005,581 MW5,820 MW
19 Sept, 12:005,370 MW5,552 MW
19 Sept, 13:005,093 MW5,184 MW
19 Sept, 14:005,135 MW5,165 MW
19 Sept, 15:005,225 MW5,256 MW
19 Sept, 16:005,568 MW5,366 MW
19 Sept, 17:005,885 MW5,811 MW
19 Sept, 18:006,087 MW6,172 MW
19 Sept, 19:006,068 MW6,231 MW
19 Sept, 20:005,902 MW6,043 MW
19 Sept, 21:005,587 MW5,705 MW
19 Sept, 22:005,412 MW5,496 MW
19 Sept, 23:005,032 MW5,123 MW
20 Sept, 00:004,833 MW4,899 MW
20 Sept, 01:004,587 MW4,653 MW
20 Sept, 02:004,473 MW4,557 MW
20 Sept, 03:004,363 MW4,455 MW
20 Sept, 04:004,353 MW4,428 MW
20 Sept, 05:004,471 MW4,585 MW
20 Sept, 06:004,709 MW4,817 MW
20 Sept, 07:004,885 MW4,997 MW
20 Sept, 08:005,116 MW5,176 MW
20 Sept, 09:005,296 MW5,156 MW
20 Sept, 10:005,445 MW5,207 MW
20 Sept, 11:005,376 MW5,138 MW
20 Sept, 12:005,209 MW4,958 MW
20 Sept, 13:005,088 MW4,799 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.