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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 920 MW (14.3%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vienna).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 920 MW (14.3%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Austria came 14 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 161 MW, against average demand of 6,612 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 23% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-1.9%
Hours within 5%87%
Worst miss920 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-121 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 920 MW (14.3%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 5,534 MW, reported 6,454 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Austria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:007,449 MW7,286 MW
29 Oct, 15:007,595 MW7,552 MW
29 Oct, 16:007,864 MW7,880 MW
29 Oct, 17:008,134 MW8,164 MW
29 Oct, 18:008,144 MW8,216 MW
29 Oct, 19:007,917 MW7,982 MW
29 Oct, 20:007,503 MW7,563 MW
29 Oct, 21:007,028 MW7,047 MW
29 Oct, 22:006,727 MW6,721 MW
29 Oct, 23:006,313 MW6,267 MW
30 Oct, 00:006,020 MW5,966 MW
30 Oct, 01:005,771 MW5,701 MW
30 Oct, 02:005,703 MW5,612 MW
30 Oct, 03:005,670 MW5,561 MW
30 Oct, 04:005,905 MW5,727 MW
30 Oct, 05:006,525 MW6,363 MW
30 Oct, 06:007,533 MW7,501 MW
30 Oct, 07:008,207 MW8,157 MW
30 Oct, 08:008,230 MW8,304 MW
30 Oct, 09:007,995 MW8,106 MW
30 Oct, 10:007,770 MW7,907 MW
30 Oct, 11:007,597 MW7,698 MW
30 Oct, 12:007,282 MW7,366 MW
30 Oct, 13:007,267 MW7,143 MW
30 Oct, 14:007,038 MW6,988 MW
30 Oct, 15:007,183 MW7,115 MW
30 Oct, 16:007,545 MW7,374 MW
30 Oct, 17:007,782 MW7,706 MW
30 Oct, 18:007,880 MW7,832 MW
30 Oct, 19:007,726 MW7,659 MW
30 Oct, 20:007,312 MW7,242 MW
30 Oct, 21:006,783 MW6,738 MW
30 Oct, 22:006,530 MW6,473 MW
30 Oct, 23:006,081 MW6,060 MW
31 Oct, 00:005,794 MW5,696 MW
31 Oct, 01:005,520 MW5,401 MW
31 Oct, 02:005,390 MW5,275 MW
31 Oct, 03:005,295 MW5,162 MW
31 Oct, 04:005,321 MW5,207 MW
31 Oct, 05:005,604 MW5,449 MW
31 Oct, 06:005,999 MW5,902 MW
31 Oct, 07:006,356 MW6,290 MW
31 Oct, 08:006,625 MW6,509 MW
31 Oct, 09:006,648 MW6,547 MW
31 Oct, 10:006,585 MW6,603 MW
31 Oct, 11:006,515 MW6,386 MW
31 Oct, 12:006,334 MW6,133 MW
31 Oct, 13:006,269 MW6,040 MW
31 Oct, 14:006,130 MW5,983 MW
31 Oct, 15:006,307 MW6,147 MW
31 Oct, 16:006,609 MW6,406 MW
31 Oct, 17:006,899 MW6,730 MW
31 Oct, 18:006,951 MW6,848 MW
31 Oct, 19:006,789 MW6,764 MW
31 Oct, 20:006,460 MW6,473 MW
31 Oct, 21:006,093 MW6,082 MW
31 Oct, 22:006,014 MW5,962 MW
31 Oct, 23:005,697 MW5,584 MW
1 Nov, 00:005,474 MW5,238 MW
1 Nov, 01:005,142 MW4,967 MW
1 Nov, 02:005,032 MW4,870 MW
1 Nov, 03:004,964 MW4,812 MW
1 Nov, 04:005,008 MW4,889 MW
1 Nov, 05:005,133 MW5,112 MW
1 Nov, 06:005,399 MW5,409 MW
1 Nov, 07:005,739 MW5,662 MW
1 Nov, 08:005,970 MW5,821 MW
1 Nov, 09:006,073 MW5,915 MW
1 Nov, 10:006,116 MW5,949 MW
1 Nov, 11:006,143 MW5,942 MW
1 Nov, 12:006,084 MW5,864 MW
1 Nov, 13:006,034 MW5,769 MW
1 Nov, 14:005,946 MW5,678 MW
1 Nov, 15:005,988 MW5,825 MW
1 Nov, 16:006,268 MW6,194 MW
1 Nov, 17:006,580 MW6,585 MW
1 Nov, 18:006,769 MW6,700 MW
1 Nov, 19:006,688 MW6,550 MW
1 Nov, 20:006,435 MW6,287 MW
1 Nov, 21:006,115 MW6,009 MW
1 Nov, 22:006,000 MW5,911 MW
1 Nov, 23:005,765 MW5,625 MW
2 Nov, 00:005,750 MW5,812 MW
2 Nov, 01:005,585 MW5,574 MW
2 Nov, 02:005,525 MW5,497 MW
2 Nov, 03:005,514 MW5,468 MW
2 Nov, 04:005,658 MW5,662 MW
2 Nov, 05:006,369 MW6,324 MW
2 Nov, 06:007,575 MW7,514 MW
2 Nov, 07:008,326 MW8,211 MW
2 Nov, 08:008,476 MW8,344 MW
2 Nov, 09:008,199 MW8,100 MW
2 Nov, 10:008,140 MW7,971 MW
2 Nov, 11:007,967 MW7,804 MW
2 Nov, 12:007,729 MW7,551 MW
2 Nov, 13:007,646 MW7,568 MW
2 Nov, 14:007,687 MW7,582 MW
2 Nov, 15:007,910 MW7,754 MW
2 Nov, 16:008,214 MW7,997 MW
2 Nov, 17:008,401 MW8,225 MW
2 Nov, 18:008,365 MW8,244 MW
2 Nov, 19:008,072 MW8,009 MW
2 Nov, 20:007,637 MW7,575 MW
2 Nov, 21:007,109 MW7,060 MW
2 Nov, 22:006,797 MW6,747 MW
2 Nov, 23:006,368 MW6,303 MW
3 Nov, 00:005,889 MW5,808 MW
3 Nov, 01:005,660 MW5,574 MW
3 Nov, 02:005,585 MW5,495 MW
3 Nov, 03:005,617 MW5,466 MW
3 Nov, 04:005,774 MW5,659 MW
3 Nov, 05:006,422 MW6,319 MW
3 Nov, 06:007,551 MW7,509 MW
3 Nov, 07:008,274 MW8,208 MW
3 Nov, 08:008,423 MW8,342 MW
3 Nov, 09:008,232 MW8,095 MW
3 Nov, 10:008,057 MW7,967 MW
3 Nov, 11:008,011 MW7,799 MW
3 Nov, 12:007,840 MW7,547 MW
3 Nov, 13:007,842 MW7,565 MW
3 Nov, 14:007,869 MW7,582 MW
3 Nov, 15:008,071 MW7,755 MW
3 Nov, 16:008,283 MW7,998 MW
3 Nov, 17:008,297 MW8,224 MW
3 Nov, 18:008,286 MW8,241 MW
3 Nov, 19:007,995 MW8,007 MW
3 Nov, 20:007,546 MW7,572 MW
3 Nov, 21:007,031 MW7,056 MW
3 Nov, 22:006,727 MW6,743 MW
3 Nov, 23:006,274 MW6,299 MW
4 Nov, 00:006,095 MW5,801 MW
4 Nov, 01:005,863 MW5,569 MW
4 Nov, 02:005,788 MW5,513 MW
4 Nov, 03:005,769 MW5,499 MW
4 Nov, 04:005,967 MW5,708 MW
4 Nov, 05:006,654 MW6,428 MW
4 Nov, 06:007,783 MW7,651 MW
4 Nov, 07:008,434 MW8,411 MW
4 Nov, 08:008,556 MW8,562 MW
4 Nov, 09:008,414 MW8,282 MW
4 Nov, 10:008,319 MW8,224 MW
4 Nov, 11:008,229 MW8,054 MW
4 Nov, 12:008,100 MW7,819 MW
4 Nov, 13:008,079 MW7,738 MW
4 Nov, 14:008,076 MW7,782 MW
4 Nov, 15:008,252 MW8,009 MW
4 Nov, 16:008,459 MW8,313 MW
4 Nov, 17:008,625 MW8,498 MW
4 Nov, 18:008,537 MW8,456 MW
4 Nov, 19:008,227 MW8,154 MW
4 Nov, 20:007,771 MW7,710 MW
4 Nov, 21:007,233 MW7,174 MW
4 Nov, 22:006,943 MW6,860 MW
4 Nov, 23:006,487 MW6,393 MW
5 Nov, 00:006,179 MW5,949 MW
5 Nov, 01:005,923 MW5,722 MW
5 Nov, 02:005,864 MW5,648 MW
5 Nov, 03:005,849 MW5,610 MW
5 Nov, 04:006,060 MW5,830 MW
5 Nov, 05:006,729 MW6,484 MW
5 Nov, 06:007,799 MW7,628 MW
5 Nov, 07:008,476 MW8,361 MW
5 Nov, 08:008,533 MW8,512 MW
5 Nov, 09:008,384 MW8,316 MW
5 Nov, 10:008,304 MW8,140 MW
5 Nov, 11:008,063 MW8,096 MW
5 Nov, 12:007,849 MW7,926 MW
5 Nov, 13:007,839 MW7,931 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_at_2026,
  title = {{Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/}
}

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