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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Romania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Romania was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,130 MW (30.6%) too high at 19 Sept 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Bucharest).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Romania was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,130 MW (30.6%) too high at 19 Sept 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Romania came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 171 MW, against average demand of 5,338 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 51% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

688 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.4%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%81%
Worst miss1,130 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+33 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,130 MW (30.6%) too high at 19 Sept 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 4,823 MW, reported 3,693 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00)
Romania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Romania over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 13 Sept, 16:0014 Sept, 16:0015 Sept, 16:0016 Sept, 16:0017 Sept, 16:0018 Sept, 16:0019 Sept, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Romania over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Romania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 16:004,408 MW4,573 MW
13 Sept, 17:004,705 MW5,118 MW
13 Sept, 18:005,103 MW5,650 MW
13 Sept, 19:005,507 MW6,000 MW
13 Sept, 20:005,854 MW6,128 MW
13 Sept, 21:005,666 MW5,955 MW
13 Sept, 22:005,216 MW5,563 MW
13 Sept, 23:004,990 MW5,165 MW
14 Sept, 00:004,751 MW4,683 MW
14 Sept, 01:004,461 MW4,473 MW
14 Sept, 02:004,467 MW4,395 MW
14 Sept, 03:004,505 MW4,363 MW
14 Sept, 04:004,592 MW4,450 MW
14 Sept, 05:004,757 MW4,733 MW
14 Sept, 06:005,123 MW5,288 MW
14 Sept, 07:005,669 MW5,848 MW
14 Sept, 08:005,673 MW5,980 MW
14 Sept, 09:005,427 MW5,608 MW
14 Sept, 10:004,906 MW5,093 MW
14 Sept, 11:004,639 MW4,765 MW
14 Sept, 12:004,423 MW4,663 MW
14 Sept, 13:004,627 MW4,725 MW
14 Sept, 14:004,964 MW4,855 MW
14 Sept, 15:005,131 MW4,978 MW
14 Sept, 16:005,404 MW5,325 MW
14 Sept, 17:005,730 MW5,988 MW
14 Sept, 18:005,994 MW6,520 MW
14 Sept, 19:006,347 MW6,858 MW
14 Sept, 20:006,613 MW6,945 MW
14 Sept, 21:006,322 MW6,625 MW
14 Sept, 22:005,787 MW6,098 MW
14 Sept, 23:005,385 MW5,520 MW
15 Sept, 00:005,094 MW5,250 MW
15 Sept, 01:004,967 MW5,100 MW
15 Sept, 02:004,877 MW5,000 MW
15 Sept, 03:005,031 MW4,983 MW
15 Sept, 04:005,124 MW5,030 MW
15 Sept, 05:005,211 MW5,183 MW
15 Sept, 06:005,518 MW5,505 MW
15 Sept, 07:006,035 MW5,968 MW
15 Sept, 08:006,074 MW5,968 MW
15 Sept, 09:005,717 MW5,630 MW
15 Sept, 10:005,195 MW5,180 MW
15 Sept, 11:004,663 MW4,855 MW
15 Sept, 12:004,387 MW4,675 MW
15 Sept, 13:004,522 MW4,748 MW
15 Sept, 14:004,679 MW4,825 MW
15 Sept, 15:004,801 MW4,970 MW
15 Sept, 16:005,289 MW5,325 MW
15 Sept, 17:005,892 MW5,905 MW
15 Sept, 18:006,338 MW6,463 MW
15 Sept, 19:006,639 MW6,830 MW
15 Sept, 20:006,900 MW7,070 MW
15 Sept, 21:006,582 MW6,758 MW
15 Sept, 22:006,025 MW6,208 MW
15 Sept, 23:005,593 MW5,690 MW
16 Sept, 00:005,186 MW5,155 MW
16 Sept, 01:005,008 MW5,003 MW
16 Sept, 02:005,008 MW4,953 MW
16 Sept, 03:005,188 MW5,055 MW
16 Sept, 04:005,144 MW5,150 MW
16 Sept, 05:005,275 MW5,203 MW
16 Sept, 06:005,534 MW5,503 MW
16 Sept, 07:005,988 MW5,953 MW
16 Sept, 08:005,889 MW5,903 MW
16 Sept, 09:005,368 MW5,403 MW
16 Sept, 10:004,702 MW4,830 MW
16 Sept, 11:004,198 MW4,350 MW
16 Sept, 12:004,143 MW4,105 MW
16 Sept, 13:004,331 MW4,200 MW
16 Sept, 14:004,503 MW4,498 MW
16 Sept, 15:004,594 MW4,805 MW
16 Sept, 16:004,977 MW5,200 MW
16 Sept, 17:005,598 MW5,705 MW
16 Sept, 18:006,241 MW6,198 MW
16 Sept, 19:006,608 MW6,658 MW
16 Sept, 20:006,889 MW6,950 MW
16 Sept, 21:006,554 MW6,600 MW
16 Sept, 22:005,961 MW6,050 MW
16 Sept, 23:005,493 MW5,590 MW
17 Sept, 00:005,147 MW5,208 MW
17 Sept, 01:004,976 MW5,035 MW
17 Sept, 02:004,909 MW5,023 MW
17 Sept, 03:005,083 MW5,140 MW
17 Sept, 04:005,192 MW5,150 MW
17 Sept, 05:005,263 MW5,248 MW
17 Sept, 06:005,535 MW5,530 MW
17 Sept, 07:005,990 MW5,978 MW
17 Sept, 08:005,962 MW5,848 MW
17 Sept, 09:005,435 MW5,335 MW
17 Sept, 10:004,774 MW4,698 MW
17 Sept, 11:004,359 MW4,203 MW
17 Sept, 12:004,183 MW4,150 MW
17 Sept, 13:004,313 MW4,283 MW
17 Sept, 14:004,335 MW4,520 MW
17 Sept, 15:004,405 MW4,853 MW
17 Sept, 16:004,888 MW5,253 MW
17 Sept, 17:005,516 MW5,850 MW
17 Sept, 18:006,232 MW6,350 MW
17 Sept, 19:006,600 MW6,730 MW
17 Sept, 20:006,822 MW7,003 MW
17 Sept, 21:006,503 MW6,648 MW
17 Sept, 22:005,966 MW6,075 MW
17 Sept, 23:005,473 MW5,633 MW
18 Sept, 00:005,148 MW5,163 MW
18 Sept, 01:004,976 MW5,000 MW
18 Sept, 02:004,840 MW4,933 MW
18 Sept, 03:004,868 MW5,080 MW
18 Sept, 04:004,934 MW5,180 MW
18 Sept, 05:005,112 MW5,273 MW
18 Sept, 06:005,459 MW5,573 MW
18 Sept, 07:005,893 MW6,100 MW
18 Sept, 08:005,954 MW6,178 MW
18 Sept, 09:005,721 MW5,803 MW
18 Sept, 10:005,247 MW5,250 MW
18 Sept, 11:004,881 MW4,803 MW
18 Sept, 12:004,877 MW4,653 MW
18 Sept, 13:005,044 MW4,698 MW
18 Sept, 14:004,734 MW4,878 MW
18 Sept, 15:004,789 MW5,150 MW
18 Sept, 16:005,192 MW5,473 MW
18 Sept, 17:005,784 MW5,880 MW
18 Sept, 18:006,224 MW6,348 MW
18 Sept, 19:006,583 MW6,750 MW
18 Sept, 20:006,721 MW6,950 MW
18 Sept, 21:006,396 MW6,600 MW
18 Sept, 22:005,853 MW6,070 MW
18 Sept, 23:005,416 MW5,593 MW
19 Sept, 00:005,110 MW5,120 MW
19 Sept, 01:005,045 MW4,898 MW
19 Sept, 02:004,963 MW4,753 MW
19 Sept, 03:004,788 MW4,735 MW
19 Sept, 04:004,766 MW4,765 MW
19 Sept, 05:004,826 MW4,803 MW
19 Sept, 06:004,928 MW4,923 MW
19 Sept, 07:005,023 MW5,105 MW
19 Sept, 08:004,987 MW5,168 MW
19 Sept, 09:004,678 MW4,998 MW
19 Sept, 10:004,206 MW4,775 MW
19 Sept, 11:003,914 MW4,703 MW
19 Sept, 12:003,660 MW4,745 MW
19 Sept, 13:003,693 MW4,823 MW
19 Sept, 14:003,807 MW4,898 MW
19 Sept, 15:004,183 MW4,970 MW
19 Sept, 16:004,533 MW5,133 MW
19 Sept, 17:005,110 MW5,480 MW
19 Sept, 18:005,617 MW5,865 MW
19 Sept, 19:006,030 MW6,228 MW
19 Sept, 20:006,240 MW6,333 MW
19 Sept, 21:005,932 MW6,055 MW
19 Sept, 22:005,474 MW5,613 MW
19 Sept, 23:005,159 MW5,133 MW
20 Sept, 00:004,772 MW4,770 MW
20 Sept, 01:004,613 MW4,600 MW
20 Sept, 02:004,576 MW4,473 MW
20 Sept, 03:004,378 MW4,403 MW
20 Sept, 04:004,368 MW4,403 MW
20 Sept, 05:004,375 MW4,450 MW
20 Sept, 06:004,440 MW4,470 MW
20 Sept, 07:004,398 MW4,445 MW
20 Sept, 08:004,238 MW4,250 MW
20 Sept, 09:003,844 MW3,860 MW
20 Sept, 10:003,373 MW3,453 MW
20 Sept, 11:003,117 MW3,200 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,226 MW3,103 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,171 MW3,100 MW
20 Sept, 14:003,298 MW3,203 MW
20 Sept, 15:003,484 MW3,500 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.