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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Portugal was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 701 MW (9.5%) too low at 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 WEST (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Lisbon).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Portugal was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 95% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 701 MW (9.5%) too low at 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 WEST (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Portugal came 7 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 115 MW, against average demand of 5,909 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 35% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.0%
Bias-0.9%
Hours within 5%95%
Worst miss701 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-55 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 701 MW (9.5%) too low at 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 WEST (UTC+01:00): forecast 6,709 MW, reported 7,410 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 WET (UTC+00:00)
Portugal day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Portugal over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 WET (UTC+00:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Portugal over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 WET (UTC+00:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:006,664 MW6,387 MW
29 Oct, 15:006,757 MW6,566 MW
29 Oct, 16:006,984 MW6,758 MW
29 Oct, 17:007,232 MW7,010 MW
29 Oct, 18:007,639 MW7,466 MW
29 Oct, 19:007,782 MW7,625 MW
29 Oct, 20:007,544 MW7,417 MW
29 Oct, 21:007,065 MW6,878 MW
29 Oct, 22:006,526 MW6,348 MW
29 Oct, 23:005,955 MW5,736 MW
30 Oct, 00:005,477 MW5,287 MW
30 Oct, 01:005,165 MW5,018 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,957 MW4,849 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,823 MW4,744 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,789 MW4,704 MW
30 Oct, 05:004,891 MW4,794 MW
30 Oct, 06:005,360 MW5,302 MW
30 Oct, 07:005,996 MW5,996 MW
30 Oct, 08:006,672 MW6,637 MW
30 Oct, 09:006,813 MW6,752 MW
30 Oct, 10:006,776 MW6,634 MW
30 Oct, 11:006,877 MW6,564 MW
30 Oct, 12:006,773 MW6,431 MW
30 Oct, 13:006,846 MW6,383 MW
30 Oct, 14:006,990 MW6,580 MW
30 Oct, 15:006,998 MW6,691 MW
30 Oct, 16:007,172 MW6,811 MW
30 Oct, 17:007,352 MW6,995 MW
30 Oct, 18:007,593 MW7,339 MW
30 Oct, 19:007,586 MW7,452 MW
30 Oct, 20:007,337 MW7,238 MW
30 Oct, 21:006,864 MW6,711 MW
30 Oct, 22:006,364 MW6,246 MW
30 Oct, 23:005,852 MW5,670 MW
31 Oct, 00:005,485 MW5,307 MW
31 Oct, 01:005,190 MW5,001 MW
31 Oct, 02:005,005 MW4,779 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,878 MW4,625 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,775 MW4,556 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,787 MW4,561 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,924 MW4,739 MW
31 Oct, 07:005,104 MW4,965 MW
31 Oct, 08:005,359 MW5,344 MW
31 Oct, 09:005,386 MW5,590 MW
31 Oct, 10:005,352 MW5,546 MW
31 Oct, 11:005,399 MW5,546 MW
31 Oct, 12:005,520 MW5,587 MW
31 Oct, 13:005,440 MW5,463 MW
31 Oct, 14:005,380 MW5,429 MW
31 Oct, 15:005,575 MW5,535 MW
31 Oct, 16:005,747 MW5,696 MW
31 Oct, 17:006,057 MW6,098 MW
31 Oct, 18:006,556 MW6,551 MW
31 Oct, 19:006,603 MW6,675 MW
31 Oct, 20:006,329 MW6,483 MW
31 Oct, 21:005,923 MW6,055 MW
31 Oct, 22:005,545 MW5,688 MW
31 Oct, 23:005,260 MW5,265 MW
1 Nov, 00:004,948 MW4,977 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,712 MW4,661 MW
1 Nov, 02:004,546 MW4,432 MW
1 Nov, 03:004,422 MW4,286 MW
1 Nov, 04:004,377 MW4,217 MW
1 Nov, 05:004,352 MW4,230 MW
1 Nov, 06:004,451 MW4,343 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,472 MW4,416 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,685 MW4,653 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,830 MW4,951 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,902 MW5,029 MW
1 Nov, 11:005,040 MW5,129 MW
1 Nov, 12:005,177 MW5,192 MW
1 Nov, 13:005,051 MW5,010 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,987 MW4,914 MW
1 Nov, 15:005,129 MW5,010 MW
1 Nov, 16:005,361 MW5,240 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,786 MW5,713 MW
1 Nov, 18:006,311 MW6,210 MW
1 Nov, 19:006,512 MW6,397 MW
1 Nov, 20:006,330 MW6,316 MW
1 Nov, 21:006,009 MW5,985 MW
1 Nov, 22:005,651 MW5,627 MW
1 Nov, 23:005,233 MW5,142 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,917 MW4,837 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,708 MW4,611 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,600 MW4,437 MW
2 Nov, 03:004,518 MW4,340 MW
2 Nov, 04:004,514 MW4,340 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,650 MW4,486 MW
2 Nov, 06:005,189 MW5,026 MW
2 Nov, 07:005,845 MW5,724 MW
2 Nov, 08:006,495 MW6,388 MW
2 Nov, 09:006,569 MW6,490 MW
2 Nov, 10:006,393 MW6,327 MW
2 Nov, 11:006,387 MW6,279 MW
2 Nov, 12:006,281 MW6,160 MW
2 Nov, 13:006,308 MW6,121 MW
2 Nov, 14:006,619 MW6,340 MW
2 Nov, 15:006,903 MW6,552 MW
2 Nov, 16:006,992 MW6,795 MW
2 Nov, 17:007,189 MW7,085 MW
2 Nov, 18:007,574 MW7,491 MW
2 Nov, 19:007,751 MW7,651 MW
2 Nov, 20:007,498 MW7,476 MW
2 Nov, 21:007,031 MW6,964 MW
2 Nov, 22:006,464 MW6,403 MW
2 Nov, 23:005,904 MW5,744 MW
3 Nov, 00:005,511 MW5,326 MW
3 Nov, 01:005,185 MW5,065 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,937 MW4,906 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,838 MW4,800 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,830 MW4,771 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,935 MW4,866 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,448 MW5,365 MW
3 Nov, 07:006,133 MW6,011 MW
3 Nov, 08:006,587 MW6,647 MW
3 Nov, 09:006,594 MW6,679 MW
3 Nov, 10:006,397 MW6,481 MW
3 Nov, 11:006,353 MW6,410 MW
3 Nov, 12:006,231 MW6,225 MW
3 Nov, 13:006,193 MW6,171 MW
3 Nov, 14:006,468 MW6,389 MW
3 Nov, 15:006,703 MW6,573 MW
3 Nov, 16:007,013 MW6,811 MW
3 Nov, 17:007,207 MW7,151 MW
3 Nov, 18:007,683 MW7,594 MW
3 Nov, 19:007,889 MW7,775 MW
3 Nov, 20:007,674 MW7,557 MW
3 Nov, 21:007,223 MW6,995 MW
3 Nov, 22:006,598 MW6,513 MW
3 Nov, 23:005,944 MW5,847 MW
4 Nov, 00:005,425 MW5,412 MW
4 Nov, 01:005,096 MW5,136 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,860 MW4,973 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,763 MW4,877 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,737 MW4,842 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,838 MW4,954 MW
4 Nov, 06:005,318 MW5,419 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,968 MW6,102 MW
4 Nov, 08:006,450 MW6,775 MW
4 Nov, 09:006,441 MW6,750 MW
4 Nov, 10:006,343 MW6,477 MW
4 Nov, 11:006,336 MW6,404 MW
4 Nov, 12:006,203 MW6,199 MW
4 Nov, 13:006,190 MW6,176 MW
4 Nov, 14:006,486 MW6,391 MW
4 Nov, 15:006,629 MW6,580 MW
4 Nov, 16:006,975 MW6,885 MW
4 Nov, 17:007,331 MW7,245 MW
4 Nov, 18:007,810 MW7,733 MW
4 Nov, 19:008,040 MW7,885 MW
4 Nov, 20:007,823 MW7,728 MW
4 Nov, 21:007,336 MW7,258 MW
4 Nov, 22:006,718 MW6,716 MW
4 Nov, 23:006,100 MW6,023 MW
5 Nov, 00:005,599 MW5,546 MW
5 Nov, 01:005,246 MW5,231 MW
5 Nov, 02:005,022 MW5,045 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,912 MW4,938 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,838 MW4,905 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,942 MW5,007 MW
5 Nov, 06:005,439 MW5,478 MW
5 Nov, 07:006,169 MW6,206 MW
5 Nov, 08:006,658 MW6,862 MW
5 Nov, 09:006,574 MW6,934 MW
5 Nov, 10:006,513 MW6,651 MW
5 Nov, 11:006,479 MW6,573 MW
5 Nov, 12:006,252 MW6,411 MW
5 Nov, 13:006,246 MW6,352 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pt_2026,
  title = {{Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pt/}
}

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