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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Greece Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Greece was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 83% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,182 MW (16.1%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 12:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Athens).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Greece was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 83% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,182 MW (16.1%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 12:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Greece came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 148 MW, against average demand of 5,213 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%83%
Worst miss1,182 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-20 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,182 MW (16.1%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 12:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 6,140 MW, reported 7,322 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Greece day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Greece over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 29 Oct, 15:0030 Oct, 15:0031 Oct, 15:001 Nov, 15:002 Nov, 15:003 Nov, 15:004 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Greece over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 15:006,053 MW5,740 MW
29 Oct, 16:005,897 MW5,650 MW
29 Oct, 17:006,050 MW5,908 MW
29 Oct, 18:006,449 MW6,310 MW
29 Oct, 19:006,484 MW6,315 MW
29 Oct, 20:006,447 MW6,230 MW
29 Oct, 21:006,108 MW5,853 MW
29 Oct, 22:005,546 MW5,378 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,987 MW4,985 MW
30 Oct, 00:004,615 MW4,633 MW
30 Oct, 01:004,318 MW4,333 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,208 MW4,240 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,101 MW4,168 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,096 MW4,155 MW
30 Oct, 05:004,322 MW4,303 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,788 MW4,720 MW
30 Oct, 07:005,297 MW5,248 MW
30 Oct, 08:006,026 MW5,688 MW
30 Oct, 09:006,737 MW5,988 MW
30 Oct, 10:006,499 MW6,150 MW
30 Oct, 11:006,358 MW6,210 MW
30 Oct, 12:006,429 MW6,280 MW
30 Oct, 13:006,268 MW6,240 MW
30 Oct, 14:005,862 MW6,050 MW
30 Oct, 15:005,732 MW5,860 MW
30 Oct, 16:005,667 MW5,780 MW
30 Oct, 17:005,954 MW5,990 MW
30 Oct, 18:006,320 MW6,330 MW
30 Oct, 19:006,310 MW6,320 MW
30 Oct, 20:006,242 MW6,230 MW
30 Oct, 21:005,947 MW5,840 MW
30 Oct, 22:005,494 MW5,400 MW
30 Oct, 23:005,030 MW5,040 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,730 MW4,679 MW
31 Oct, 01:004,400 MW4,368 MW
31 Oct, 02:004,253 MW4,265 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,112 MW4,160 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,115 MW4,130 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,202 MW4,190 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,382 MW4,405 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,697 MW4,673 MW
31 Oct, 08:005,200 MW5,075 MW
31 Oct, 09:005,574 MW5,465 MW
31 Oct, 10:005,980 MW5,670 MW
31 Oct, 11:006,384 MW5,815 MW
31 Oct, 12:006,527 MW5,943 MW
31 Oct, 13:006,416 MW6,050 MW
31 Oct, 14:006,048 MW5,800 MW
31 Oct, 15:005,720 MW5,590 MW
31 Oct, 16:005,570 MW5,520 MW
31 Oct, 17:005,700 MW5,710 MW
31 Oct, 18:006,164 MW6,030 MW
31 Oct, 19:006,160 MW6,000 MW
31 Oct, 20:005,971 MW5,860 MW
31 Oct, 21:005,641 MW5,510 MW
31 Oct, 22:005,234 MW5,120 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,849 MW4,790 MW
1 Nov, 00:004,537 MW4,466 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,226 MW4,228 MW
1 Nov, 02:004,099 MW4,100 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,981 MW4,000 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,934 MW3,940 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,950 MW3,970 MW
1 Nov, 06:004,045 MW4,113 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,220 MW4,238 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,535 MW4,620 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,898 MW5,028 MW
1 Nov, 10:005,354 MW5,353 MW
1 Nov, 11:005,631 MW5,620 MW
1 Nov, 12:005,896 MW5,773 MW
1 Nov, 13:006,025 MW5,680 MW
1 Nov, 14:005,564 MW5,350 MW
1 Nov, 15:005,185 MW5,120 MW
1 Nov, 16:005,082 MW5,075 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,388 MW5,375 MW
1 Nov, 18:005,798 MW5,733 MW
1 Nov, 19:005,810 MW5,723 MW
1 Nov, 20:005,751 MW5,640 MW
1 Nov, 21:005,507 MW5,388 MW
1 Nov, 22:005,192 MW5,040 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,765 MW4,710 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,389 MW4,380 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,061 MW4,068 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,017 MW3,980 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,887 MW3,930 MW
2 Nov, 04:003,803 MW3,910 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,012 MW4,065 MW
2 Nov, 06:004,537 MW4,500 MW
2 Nov, 07:005,103 MW5,088 MW
2 Nov, 08:005,743 MW5,550 MW
2 Nov, 09:006,134 MW5,885 MW
2 Nov, 10:006,017 MW6,020 MW
2 Nov, 11:006,055 MW6,090 MW
2 Nov, 12:006,143 MW6,160 MW
2 Nov, 13:006,004 MW6,150 MW
2 Nov, 14:006,018 MW5,990 MW
2 Nov, 15:005,912 MW5,810 MW
2 Nov, 16:005,716 MW5,751 MW
2 Nov, 17:005,880 MW5,960 MW
2 Nov, 18:006,305 MW6,280 MW
2 Nov, 19:006,383 MW6,280 MW
2 Nov, 20:006,334 MW6,200 MW
2 Nov, 21:005,993 MW5,860 MW
2 Nov, 22:005,450 MW5,340 MW
2 Nov, 23:005,030 MW4,950 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,628 MW4,601 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,364 MW4,328 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,250 MW4,250 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,130 MW4,193 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,102 MW4,160 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,256 MW4,298 MW
3 Nov, 06:004,589 MW4,690 MW
3 Nov, 07:005,028 MW5,258 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,456 MW5,725 MW
3 Nov, 09:006,016 MW6,058 MW
3 Nov, 10:006,303 MW6,173 MW
3 Nov, 11:006,438 MW6,285 MW
3 Nov, 12:006,659 MW6,350 MW
3 Nov, 13:006,727 MW6,345 MW
3 Nov, 14:006,566 MW6,118 MW
3 Nov, 15:006,293 MW5,910 MW
3 Nov, 16:005,914 MW5,823 MW
3 Nov, 17:005,996 MW6,080 MW
3 Nov, 18:006,278 MW6,415 MW
3 Nov, 19:006,309 MW6,440 MW
3 Nov, 20:006,294 MW6,350 MW
3 Nov, 21:005,952 MW5,953 MW
3 Nov, 22:005,428 MW5,448 MW
3 Nov, 23:004,900 MW5,055 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,520 MW4,600 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,214 MW4,300 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,169 MW4,210 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,034 MW4,140 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,068 MW4,120 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,237 MW4,258 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,635 MW4,660 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,009 MW5,235 MW
4 Nov, 08:005,280 MW5,655 MW
4 Nov, 09:005,586 MW5,893 MW
4 Nov, 10:005,762 MW6,015 MW
4 Nov, 11:005,908 MW6,053 MW
4 Nov, 12:006,050 MW6,090 MW
4 Nov, 13:006,168 MW6,120 MW
4 Nov, 14:006,063 MW5,933 MW
4 Nov, 15:005,853 MW5,723 MW
4 Nov, 16:005,716 MW5,635 MW
4 Nov, 17:005,869 MW5,955 MW
4 Nov, 18:006,179 MW6,288 MW
4 Nov, 19:006,218 MW6,310 MW
4 Nov, 20:006,186 MW6,240 MW
4 Nov, 21:005,832 MW5,863 MW
4 Nov, 22:005,338 MW5,363 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,814 MW4,973 MW
5 Nov, 00:004,422 MW4,553 MW
5 Nov, 01:004,140 MW4,280 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,063 MW4,190 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,028 MW4,120 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,022 MW4,100 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,160 MW4,243 MW
5 Nov, 06:004,558 MW4,638 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,076 MW5,193 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,540 MW5,628 MW
5 Nov, 09:006,125 MW5,960 MW
5 Nov, 10:006,402 MW6,130 MW
5 Nov, 11:006,535 MW6,245 MW
5 Nov, 12:006,727 MW6,360 MW
5 Nov, 13:006,593 MW6,360 MW
5 Nov, 14:006,389 MW6,153 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Greece Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/gr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Greece Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/gr/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_gr_2026,
  title = {{Greece Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/gr/}
}

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