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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 5.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 59% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,116 MW (15.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 5.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 59% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,116 MW (15.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-South came 34 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 259 MW, against average demand of 5,097 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error5.2%
Bias+0.3%
Hours within 5%59%
Worst miss1,116 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-12 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,116 MW (15.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 6,338 MW, reported 7,454 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Centre-South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:005,751 MW5,624 MW
29 Oct, 15:005,694 MW5,720 MW
29 Oct, 16:005,668 MW5,706 MW
29 Oct, 17:006,068 MW5,987 MW
29 Oct, 18:006,210 MW6,237 MW
29 Oct, 19:006,337 MW6,222 MW
29 Oct, 20:006,014 MW5,926 MW
29 Oct, 21:005,503 MW5,467 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,864 MW5,020 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,279 MW4,491 MW
30 Oct, 00:003,718 MW4,316 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,581 MW4,109 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,428 MW3,919 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,318 MW3,892 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,385 MW3,928 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,599 MW4,319 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,154 MW4,871 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,857 MW5,480 MW
30 Oct, 08:005,538 MW6,069 MW
30 Oct, 09:005,889 MW6,073 MW
30 Oct, 10:005,858 MW5,889 MW
30 Oct, 11:005,900 MW5,755 MW
30 Oct, 12:005,728 MW5,583 MW
30 Oct, 13:005,538 MW5,689 MW
30 Oct, 14:005,615 MW5,878 MW
30 Oct, 15:005,571 MW6,212 MW
30 Oct, 16:005,648 MW6,274 MW
30 Oct, 17:006,093 MW6,512 MW
30 Oct, 18:006,414 MW6,705 MW
30 Oct, 19:006,572 MW6,858 MW
30 Oct, 20:006,244 MW6,593 MW
30 Oct, 21:005,707 MW6,140 MW
30 Oct, 22:005,083 MW5,670 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,444 MW4,680 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,983 MW4,109 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,741 MW3,859 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,600 MW3,718 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,518 MW3,689 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,492 MW3,711 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,630 MW3,834 MW
31 Oct, 06:003,893 MW4,051 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,403 MW4,475 MW
31 Oct, 08:005,082 MW5,042 MW
31 Oct, 09:005,411 MW5,306 MW
31 Oct, 10:005,475 MW5,258 MW
31 Oct, 11:005,499 MW4,996 MW
31 Oct, 12:005,243 MW4,930 MW
31 Oct, 13:005,124 MW4,978 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,907 MW4,835 MW
31 Oct, 15:005,046 MW4,995 MW
31 Oct, 16:005,046 MW5,138 MW
31 Oct, 17:005,515 MW5,449 MW
31 Oct, 18:005,756 MW5,725 MW
31 Oct, 19:005,834 MW5,816 MW
31 Oct, 20:005,545 MW5,579 MW
31 Oct, 21:005,044 MW5,072 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,631 MW4,678 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,215 MW4,382 MW
1 Nov, 00:003,782 MW3,990 MW
1 Nov, 01:003,993 MW3,717 MW
1 Nov, 02:003,928 MW3,471 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,793 MW3,390 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,786 MW3,404 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,884 MW3,555 MW
1 Nov, 06:004,005 MW3,747 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,194 MW4,025 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,699 MW4,509 MW
1 Nov, 09:005,213 MW5,099 MW
1 Nov, 10:005,143 MW5,268 MW
1 Nov, 11:005,397 MW5,267 MW
1 Nov, 12:005,536 MW5,339 MW
1 Nov, 13:005,311 MW5,089 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,996 MW4,815 MW
1 Nov, 15:004,871 MW4,783 MW
1 Nov, 16:004,938 MW4,812 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,336 MW5,145 MW
1 Nov, 18:005,571 MW5,417 MW
1 Nov, 19:005,759 MW5,571 MW
1 Nov, 20:005,630 MW5,458 MW
1 Nov, 21:005,243 MW5,024 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,828 MW4,646 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,365 MW4,255 MW
2 Nov, 00:003,964 MW3,822 MW
2 Nov, 01:003,743 MW3,561 MW
2 Nov, 02:003,608 MW3,429 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,547 MW3,346 MW
2 Nov, 04:003,664 MW3,371 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,032 MW3,712 MW
2 Nov, 06:004,901 MW4,468 MW
2 Nov, 07:005,650 MW5,266 MW
2 Nov, 08:006,563 MW6,062 MW
2 Nov, 09:007,051 MW6,543 MW
2 Nov, 10:007,094 MW6,450 MW
2 Nov, 11:007,264 MW6,452 MW
2 Nov, 12:007,225 MW6,315 MW
2 Nov, 13:006,886 MW6,048 MW
2 Nov, 14:006,898 MW6,087 MW
2 Nov, 15:006,831 MW6,030 MW
2 Nov, 16:007,021 MW5,951 MW
2 Nov, 17:007,454 MW6,338 MW
2 Nov, 18:007,501 MW6,549 MW
2 Nov, 19:007,421 MW6,649 MW
2 Nov, 20:006,999 MW6,404 MW
2 Nov, 21:006,409 MW5,900 MW
2 Nov, 22:005,708 MW5,228 MW
2 Nov, 23:005,063 MW4,526 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,463 MW4,218 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,204 MW3,902 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,937 MW3,745 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,999 MW3,699 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,971 MW3,715 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,453 MW4,015 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,243 MW4,713 MW
3 Nov, 07:006,055 MW5,564 MW
3 Nov, 08:006,706 MW6,316 MW
3 Nov, 09:006,821 MW6,492 MW
3 Nov, 10:006,788 MW6,387 MW
3 Nov, 11:006,889 MW6,348 MW
3 Nov, 12:006,714 MW6,099 MW
3 Nov, 13:006,465 MW5,982 MW
3 Nov, 14:006,558 MW6,040 MW
3 Nov, 15:006,720 MW6,185 MW
3 Nov, 16:006,882 MW6,135 MW
3 Nov, 17:007,127 MW6,463 MW
3 Nov, 18:007,165 MW6,610 MW
3 Nov, 19:007,265 MW6,759 MW
3 Nov, 20:006,946 MW6,459 MW
3 Nov, 21:006,570 MW5,866 MW
3 Nov, 22:005,870 MW5,301 MW
3 Nov, 23:005,147 MW4,725 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,479 MW4,381 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,128 MW4,088 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,021 MW3,970 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,912 MW3,922 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,005 MW3,957 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,427 MW4,162 MW
4 Nov, 06:005,211 MW4,785 MW
4 Nov, 07:006,072 MW5,538 MW
4 Nov, 08:006,768 MW6,194 MW
4 Nov, 09:007,100 MW6,299 MW
4 Nov, 10:007,058 MW6,197 MW
4 Nov, 11:006,999 MW6,123 MW
4 Nov, 12:006,823 MW5,952 MW
4 Nov, 13:006,585 MW5,852 MW
4 Nov, 14:006,726 MW6,041 MW
4 Nov, 15:006,673 MW6,026 MW
4 Nov, 16:006,682 MW6,006 MW
4 Nov, 17:007,028 MW6,326 MW
4 Nov, 18:007,029 MW6,447 MW
4 Nov, 19:007,094 MW6,498 MW
4 Nov, 20:006,886 MW6,315 MW
4 Nov, 21:006,426 MW5,743 MW
4 Nov, 22:005,743 MW5,154 MW
4 Nov, 23:005,107 MW4,636 MW
5 Nov, 00:004,620 MW4,390 MW
5 Nov, 01:004,336 MW4,128 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,050 MW3,887 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,979 MW3,882 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,043 MW3,855 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,436 MW4,225 MW
5 Nov, 06:005,260 MW4,902 MW
5 Nov, 07:006,222 MW5,682 MW
5 Nov, 08:006,780 MW6,366 MW
5 Nov, 09:006,942 MW6,513 MW
5 Nov, 10:006,898 MW6,577 MW
5 Nov, 11:006,739 MW6,664 MW
5 Nov, 12:006,491 MW6,648 MW
5 Nov, 13:006,346 MW6,374 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_csud_2026,
  title = {{Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

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