Statistics
Page built 2026-09-21
Data as of 2026-09-20
Search
Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 61% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,508 MW (20.8%) too low at 30 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 61% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,508 MW (20.8%) too low at 30 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-South came 32 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 311 MW, against average demand of 6,374 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 37% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error4.7%
Bias-1.9%
Hours within 5%61%
Worst miss1,508 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-156 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,508 MW (20.8%) too low at 30 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 5,753 MW, reported 7,261 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Italy Centre-South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Italy Centre-South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:004,677 MW4,800 MW
13 Sept, 15:004,699 MW4,919 MW
13 Sept, 16:005,047 MW5,052 MW
13 Sept, 17:005,477 MW5,434 MW
13 Sept, 18:005,715 MW5,843 MW
13 Sept, 19:006,123 MW6,153 MW
13 Sept, 20:006,139 MW6,173 MW
13 Sept, 21:005,833 MW5,895 MW
13 Sept, 22:005,436 MW5,453 MW
13 Sept, 23:004,947 MW4,937 MW
14 Sept, 00:004,451 MW4,725 MW
14 Sept, 01:004,160 MW4,408 MW
14 Sept, 02:004,011 MW4,238 MW
14 Sept, 03:003,948 MW4,192 MW
14 Sept, 04:003,935 MW4,176 MW
14 Sept, 05:004,265 MW4,350 MW
14 Sept, 06:004,884 MW5,009 MW
14 Sept, 07:005,620 MW5,698 MW
14 Sept, 08:006,281 MW6,318 MW
14 Sept, 09:006,628 MW6,511 MW
14 Sept, 10:006,510 MW6,484 MW
14 Sept, 11:006,368 MW6,431 MW
14 Sept, 12:006,287 MW6,324 MW
14 Sept, 13:006,387 MW6,349 MW
14 Sept, 14:006,509 MW6,511 MW
14 Sept, 15:006,763 MW6,708 MW
14 Sept, 16:006,770 MW6,816 MW
14 Sept, 17:006,674 MW6,976 MW
14 Sept, 18:006,721 MW7,111 MW
14 Sept, 19:007,129 MW7,317 MW
14 Sept, 20:006,937 MW7,202 MW
14 Sept, 21:006,403 MW6,772 MW
14 Sept, 22:005,679 MW6,185 MW
14 Sept, 23:005,219 MW5,628 MW
15 Sept, 00:004,640 MW5,068 MW
15 Sept, 01:004,512 MW4,975 MW
15 Sept, 02:004,360 MW4,750 MW
15 Sept, 03:004,316 MW4,624 MW
15 Sept, 04:004,208 MW4,602 MW
15 Sept, 05:004,424 MW4,763 MW
15 Sept, 06:005,051 MW5,291 MW
15 Sept, 07:005,830 MW5,995 MW
15 Sept, 08:006,446 MW6,556 MW
15 Sept, 09:006,758 MW6,651 MW
15 Sept, 10:006,686 MW6,612 MW
15 Sept, 11:006,595 MW6,537 MW
15 Sept, 12:006,570 MW6,483 MW
15 Sept, 13:006,524 MW6,472 MW
15 Sept, 14:006,577 MW6,755 MW
15 Sept, 15:006,692 MW6,893 MW
15 Sept, 16:006,767 MW6,955 MW
15 Sept, 17:006,851 MW6,923 MW
15 Sept, 18:006,948 MW6,834 MW
15 Sept, 19:007,378 MW7,290 MW
15 Sept, 20:007,115 MW7,124 MW
15 Sept, 21:006,511 MW6,612 MW
15 Sept, 22:005,879 MW6,051 MW
15 Sept, 23:005,265 MW5,516 MW
16 Sept, 00:004,725 MW4,959 MW
16 Sept, 01:004,464 MW4,885 MW
16 Sept, 02:004,283 MW4,673 MW
16 Sept, 03:004,233 MW4,552 MW
16 Sept, 04:004,214 MW4,503 MW
16 Sept, 05:004,477 MW4,697 MW
16 Sept, 06:005,111 MW5,215 MW
16 Sept, 07:005,725 MW5,877 MW
16 Sept, 08:006,253 MW6,438 MW
16 Sept, 09:006,652 MW6,429 MW
16 Sept, 10:006,585 MW6,384 MW
16 Sept, 11:006,608 MW6,431 MW
16 Sept, 12:006,463 MW6,462 MW
16 Sept, 13:006,372 MW6,409 MW
16 Sept, 14:006,599 MW6,739 MW
16 Sept, 15:006,679 MW6,852 MW
16 Sept, 16:006,770 MW6,887 MW
16 Sept, 17:006,840 MW6,853 MW
16 Sept, 18:006,896 MW6,843 MW
16 Sept, 19:007,313 MW7,458 MW
16 Sept, 20:007,106 MW7,264 MW
16 Sept, 21:006,457 MW6,759 MW
16 Sept, 22:005,869 MW6,197 MW
16 Sept, 23:005,338 MW5,609 MW
17 Sept, 00:004,858 MW4,766 MW
17 Sept, 01:004,559 MW4,466 MW
17 Sept, 02:004,317 MW4,335 MW
17 Sept, 03:004,164 MW4,245 MW
17 Sept, 04:004,235 MW4,242 MW
17 Sept, 05:004,506 MW4,533 MW
17 Sept, 06:005,154 MW5,089 MW
17 Sept, 07:005,805 MW5,872 MW
17 Sept, 08:006,425 MW6,479 MW
17 Sept, 09:006,832 MW6,624 MW
17 Sept, 10:006,848 MW6,494 MW
17 Sept, 11:006,948 MW6,381 MW
17 Sept, 12:006,752 MW6,163 MW
17 Sept, 13:006,956 MW6,162 MW
17 Sept, 14:007,216 MW6,332 MW
17 Sept, 15:007,270 MW6,615 MW
17 Sept, 16:007,416 MW6,712 MW
17 Sept, 17:007,230 MW6,643 MW
17 Sept, 18:007,239 MW6,691 MW
17 Sept, 19:007,643 MW7,156 MW
17 Sept, 20:007,292 MW6,859 MW
17 Sept, 21:006,591 MW6,271 MW
17 Sept, 22:006,016 MW5,592 MW
17 Sept, 23:005,481 MW5,150 MW
18 Sept, 00:005,029 MW4,722 MW
18 Sept, 01:004,725 MW4,483 MW
18 Sept, 02:004,569 MW4,335 MW
18 Sept, 03:004,484 MW4,294 MW
18 Sept, 04:004,527 MW4,271 MW
18 Sept, 05:004,733 MW4,468 MW
18 Sept, 06:005,374 MW5,057 MW
18 Sept, 07:006,052 MW5,757 MW
18 Sept, 08:006,622 MW6,458 MW
18 Sept, 09:006,958 MW6,870 MW
18 Sept, 10:007,214 MW6,819 MW
18 Sept, 11:007,244 MW6,823 MW
18 Sept, 12:006,891 MW6,695 MW
18 Sept, 13:007,033 MW6,595 MW
18 Sept, 14:007,061 MW6,657 MW
18 Sept, 15:007,010 MW6,704 MW
18 Sept, 16:007,046 MW6,829 MW
18 Sept, 17:007,000 MW6,812 MW
18 Sept, 18:007,126 MW6,826 MW
18 Sept, 19:007,489 MW7,138 MW
18 Sept, 20:007,025 MW6,870 MW
18 Sept, 21:006,494 MW6,250 MW
18 Sept, 22:005,862 MW5,642 MW
18 Sept, 23:005,303 MW5,135 MW
19 Sept, 00:004,903 MW4,840 MW
19 Sept, 01:004,624 MW4,545 MW
19 Sept, 02:004,453 MW4,337 MW
19 Sept, 03:004,343 MW4,217 MW
19 Sept, 04:004,274 MW4,215 MW
19 Sept, 05:004,392 MW4,300 MW
19 Sept, 06:004,624 MW4,541 MW
19 Sept, 07:004,958 MW4,914 MW
19 Sept, 08:005,294 MW5,375 MW
19 Sept, 09:005,693 MW5,638 MW
19 Sept, 10:005,746 MW5,693 MW
19 Sept, 11:005,755 MW5,750 MW
19 Sept, 12:005,709 MW5,621 MW
19 Sept, 13:005,566 MW5,638 MW
19 Sept, 14:005,250 MW5,643 MW
19 Sept, 15:005,355 MW5,615 MW
19 Sept, 16:005,556 MW5,670 MW
19 Sept, 17:005,764 MW5,699 MW
19 Sept, 18:005,898 MW5,825 MW
19 Sept, 19:006,389 MW6,333 MW
19 Sept, 20:006,166 MW6,187 MW
19 Sept, 21:005,726 MW5,666 MW
19 Sept, 22:005,337 MW5,246 MW
19 Sept, 23:004,891 MW4,884 MW
20 Sept, 00:004,472 MW4,557 MW
20 Sept, 01:004,150 MW4,252 MW
20 Sept, 02:004,017 MW4,014 MW
20 Sept, 03:003,907 MW3,908 MW
20 Sept, 04:003,869 MW3,888 MW
20 Sept, 05:003,942 MW3,973 MW
20 Sept, 06:004,158 MW4,060 MW
20 Sept, 07:004,215 MW4,159 MW
20 Sept, 08:004,585 MW4,448 MW
20 Sept, 09:004,954 MW4,756 MW
20 Sept, 10:005,265 MW4,916 MW
20 Sept, 11:005,350 MW4,984 MW
20 Sept, 12:005,327 MW4,874 MW
20 Sept, 13:005,311 MW4,894 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.