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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Hungary was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 715 MW (20.5%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Budapest).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Hungary was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 715 MW (20.5%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Hungary came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 195 MW, against average demand of 4,949 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 17% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.0%
Bias-2.7%
Hours within 5%70%
Worst miss715 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-141 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 715 MW (20.5%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,203 MW, reported 3,488 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Hungary day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Hungary over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Hungary over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:005,572 MW5,362 MW
29 Oct, 15:005,928 MW5,630 MW
29 Oct, 16:006,136 MW5,844 MW
29 Oct, 17:006,223 MW5,981 MW
29 Oct, 18:006,163 MW5,961 MW
29 Oct, 19:006,067 MW5,888 MW
29 Oct, 20:005,870 MW5,641 MW
29 Oct, 21:005,758 MW5,312 MW
29 Oct, 22:005,484 MW5,085 MW
29 Oct, 23:005,301 MW4,850 MW
30 Oct, 00:004,860 MW4,545 MW
30 Oct, 01:004,703 MW4,282 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,660 MW4,147 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,687 MW4,164 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,655 MW4,326 MW
30 Oct, 05:004,912 MW4,659 MW
30 Oct, 06:005,408 MW5,287 MW
30 Oct, 07:005,633 MW5,435 MW
30 Oct, 08:005,520 MW5,370 MW
30 Oct, 09:005,336 MW5,282 MW
30 Oct, 10:005,200 MW5,224 MW
30 Oct, 11:005,218 MW5,314 MW
30 Oct, 12:005,226 MW5,355 MW
30 Oct, 13:005,202 MW5,351 MW
30 Oct, 14:005,470 MW5,404 MW
30 Oct, 15:005,747 MW5,629 MW
30 Oct, 16:006,045 MW5,843 MW
30 Oct, 17:006,101 MW5,940 MW
30 Oct, 18:006,031 MW5,909 MW
30 Oct, 19:005,960 MW5,838 MW
30 Oct, 20:005,780 MW5,592 MW
30 Oct, 21:005,704 MW5,271 MW
30 Oct, 22:005,421 MW5,047 MW
30 Oct, 23:005,148 MW4,829 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,760 MW4,502 MW
31 Oct, 01:004,487 MW4,248 MW
31 Oct, 02:004,375 MW4,110 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,346 MW4,080 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,373 MW4,121 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,480 MW4,250 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,647 MW4,491 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,894 MW4,604 MW
31 Oct, 08:004,919 MW4,661 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,984 MW4,613 MW
31 Oct, 10:005,038 MW4,577 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,949 MW4,736 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,806 MW4,789 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,859 MW4,776 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,968 MW4,829 MW
31 Oct, 15:005,190 MW5,050 MW
31 Oct, 16:005,502 MW5,283 MW
31 Oct, 17:005,571 MW5,413 MW
31 Oct, 18:005,484 MW5,421 MW
31 Oct, 19:005,477 MW5,378 MW
31 Oct, 20:005,292 MW5,179 MW
31 Oct, 21:005,154 MW4,899 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,938 MW4,717 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,662 MW4,496 MW
1 Nov, 00:004,330 MW4,094 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,159 MW3,869 MW
1 Nov, 02:004,059 MW3,750 MW
1 Nov, 03:004,001 MW3,731 MW
1 Nov, 04:004,097 MW3,757 MW
1 Nov, 05:004,095 MW3,821 MW
1 Nov, 06:004,180 MW3,930 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,183 MW3,947 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,163 MW4,025 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,152 MW4,081 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,207 MW4,120 MW
1 Nov, 11:004,320 MW4,194 MW
1 Nov, 12:004,422 MW4,244 MW
1 Nov, 13:004,463 MW4,252 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,690 MW4,379 MW
1 Nov, 15:004,967 MW4,557 MW
1 Nov, 16:005,142 MW4,781 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,223 MW4,974 MW
1 Nov, 18:005,202 MW5,002 MW
1 Nov, 19:005,283 MW4,970 MW
1 Nov, 20:005,169 MW4,815 MW
1 Nov, 21:005,049 MW4,598 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,843 MW4,428 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,555 MW4,193 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,274 MW4,041 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,134 MW3,804 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,095 MW3,723 MW
2 Nov, 03:004,171 MW3,773 MW
2 Nov, 04:004,205 MW3,964 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,543 MW4,379 MW
2 Nov, 06:005,337 MW5,118 MW
2 Nov, 07:005,744 MW5,347 MW
2 Nov, 08:005,876 MW5,387 MW
2 Nov, 09:005,901 MW5,406 MW
2 Nov, 10:005,921 MW5,436 MW
2 Nov, 11:005,895 MW5,549 MW
2 Nov, 12:005,930 MW5,591 MW
2 Nov, 13:005,929 MW5,575 MW
2 Nov, 14:006,040 MW5,619 MW
2 Nov, 15:006,170 MW5,788 MW
2 Nov, 16:006,304 MW5,958 MW
2 Nov, 17:006,344 MW6,029 MW
2 Nov, 18:006,342 MW5,997 MW
2 Nov, 19:006,350 MW5,930 MW
2 Nov, 20:006,124 MW5,699 MW
2 Nov, 21:005,918 MW5,392 MW
2 Nov, 22:005,593 MW5,138 MW
2 Nov, 23:005,302 MW4,862 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,955 MW4,613 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,758 MW4,380 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,809 MW4,249 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,841 MW4,266 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,859 MW4,418 MW
3 Nov, 05:005,091 MW4,783 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,689 MW5,438 MW
3 Nov, 07:006,011 MW5,631 MW
3 Nov, 08:006,025 MW5,657 MW
3 Nov, 09:006,055 MW5,630 MW
3 Nov, 10:006,051 MW5,575 MW
3 Nov, 11:005,951 MW5,598 MW
3 Nov, 12:005,858 MW5,575 MW
3 Nov, 13:005,888 MW5,521 MW
3 Nov, 14:005,991 MW5,608 MW
3 Nov, 15:006,213 MW5,821 MW
3 Nov, 16:006,394 MW6,023 MW
3 Nov, 17:006,478 MW6,118 MW
3 Nov, 18:006,440 MW6,095 MW
3 Nov, 19:006,418 MW6,038 MW
3 Nov, 20:006,208 MW5,807 MW
3 Nov, 21:005,980 MW5,498 MW
3 Nov, 22:005,700 MW5,270 MW
3 Nov, 23:005,409 MW5,022 MW
4 Nov, 00:005,035 MW4,751 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,796 MW4,499 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,807 MW4,410 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,792 MW4,444 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,790 MW4,599 MW
4 Nov, 05:005,060 MW4,982 MW
4 Nov, 06:005,735 MW5,599 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,889 MW5,657 MW
4 Nov, 08:005,632 MW5,385 MW
4 Nov, 09:005,341 MW5,084 MW
4 Nov, 10:005,116 MW4,934 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,979 MW4,929 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,990 MW4,965 MW
4 Nov, 13:005,148 MW5,030 MW
4 Nov, 14:005,546 MW5,259 MW
4 Nov, 15:005,956 MW5,673 MW
4 Nov, 16:006,263 MW6,044 MW
4 Nov, 17:006,415 MW6,217 MW
4 Nov, 18:006,447 MW6,224 MW
4 Nov, 19:006,435 MW6,177 MW
4 Nov, 20:006,227 MW5,957 MW
4 Nov, 21:006,097 MW5,666 MW
4 Nov, 22:005,775 MW5,477 MW
4 Nov, 23:005,488 MW5,245 MW
5 Nov, 00:005,161 MW4,855 MW
5 Nov, 01:005,059 MW4,589 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,994 MW4,500 MW
5 Nov, 03:005,035 MW4,534 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,973 MW4,690 MW
5 Nov, 05:005,318 MW5,071 MW
5 Nov, 06:005,964 MW5,699 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,925 MW5,742 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,412 MW5,420 MW
5 Nov, 09:005,009 MW5,104 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,858 MW4,888 MW
5 Nov, 11:004,844 MW4,865 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,845 MW4,885 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,857 MW4,973 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_hu_2026,
  title = {{Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/}
}

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