BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BHBA was off by 9.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 6% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 276 MW (34.5%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 02:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for BHBA was off by 9.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 6% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 276 MW (34.5%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 02:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BHBA came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 90 MW, against average demand of 907 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error9.9%

Bias-9.9%

Hours within 5%6%

Worst miss276 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-90 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 276 MW (34.5%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 02:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 523 MW, reported 799 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BHBA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 08:00	979 MW	880 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	965 MW	874 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	951 MW	873 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	937 MW	868 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	932 MW	865 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	930 MW	863 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	916 MW	857 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	907 MW	853 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	916 MW	851 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	926 MW	854 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	920 MW	853 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	926 MW	856 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	928 MW	856 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	907 MW	845 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	890 MW	819 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	876 MW	802 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	864 MW	786 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	852 MW	782 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	845 MW	778 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	849 MW	785 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	862 MW	798 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	875 MW	824 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	902 MW	851 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	933 MW	879 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	958 MW	888 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	966 MW	877 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	964 MW	869 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	951 MW	863 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	944 MW	860 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	925 MW	853 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	918 MW	846 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	921 MW	844 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	917 MW	844 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	918 MW	846 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	902 MW	843 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	900 MW	848 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	841 MW	848 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	892 MW	838 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	877 MW	812 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	857 MW	790 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	846 MW	780 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	841 MW	774 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	842 MW	769 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	846 MW	774 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	847 MW	784 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	853 MW	804 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	860 MW	829 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	887 MW	857 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	920 MW	876 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	927 MW	872 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	930 MW	871 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	924 MW	864 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	912 MW	859 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	901 MW	853 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	890 MW	845 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	886 MW	842 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	888 MW	841 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	895 MW	837 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	879 MW	826 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	871 MW	825 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	880 MW	827 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	872 MW	814 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	865 MW	793 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	849 MW	777 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	838 MW	765 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	830 MW	759 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	824 MW	748 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	831 MW	755 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	835 MW	758 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	846 MW	761 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	860 MW	767 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	862 MW	772 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	891 MW	792 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	917 MW	816 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	925 MW	818 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	930 MW	821 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	928 MW	822 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	927 MW	814 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	934 MW	811 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	930 MW	810 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	939 MW	809 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	951 MW	811 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	949 MW	815 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	906 MW	802 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	893 MW	806 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	886 MW	808 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	861 MW	798 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	842 MW	781 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	828 MW	771 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	809 MW	762 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	806 MW	754 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	799 MW	523 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	808 MW	752 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	821 MW	753 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	846 MW	760 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	889 MW	769 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	927 MW	787 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	947 MW	806 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	965 MW	823 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	975 MW	829 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	980 MW	836 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	994 MW	835 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	1,004 MW	827 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	985 MW	823 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	986 MW	821 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	992 MW	832 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	1,003 MW	847 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	978 MW	830 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	966 MW	824 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	956 MW	816 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	932 MW	800 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	909 MW	781 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	892 MW	770 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	879 MW	773 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	875 MW	767 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	872 MW	761 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	874 MW	768 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	888 MW	779 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	919 MW	798 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	949 MW	829 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	960 MW	861 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	961 MW	884 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	962 MW	899 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	952 MW	908 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	940 MW	925 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	927 MW	924 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	927 MW	918 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	922 MW	915 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	931 MW	916 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	950 MW	913 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	972 MW	922 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	960 MW	896 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	969 MW	891 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	963 MW	883 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	945 MW	866 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	929 MW	846 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	917 MW	818 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	900 MW	815 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	899 MW	806 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	899 MW	803 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	903 MW	809 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	914 MW	814 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	939 MW	834 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	961 MW	865 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	968 MW	887 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	969 MW	892 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	973 MW	887 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	961 MW	882 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	958 MW	887 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	949 MW	884 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	942 MW	878 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	933 MW	877 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	949 MW	875 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	956 MW	873 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	978 MW	900 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	953 MW	883 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	955 MW	882 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	957 MW	880 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	936 MW	866 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	915 MW	844 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	900 MW	832 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	897 MW	820 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	895 MW	816 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	887 MW	813 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	894 MW	819 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	907 MW	829 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	934 MW	848 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	959 MW	879 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bhba_2026,
  title = {{BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

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BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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