EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for EPE was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 341 MW (64.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for EPE was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 341 MW (64.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, EPE came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 31 MW, against average demand of 975 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 35% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.1%

Bias-1.3%

Hours within 5%80%

Worst miss341 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-13 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 341 MW (64.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 11:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 867 MW, reported 526 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for EPE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 08:00	900 MW	884 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	908 MW	898 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	925 MW	920 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	952 MW	949 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	963 MW	992 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	1,007 MW	1,047 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	1,075 MW	1,103 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	1,063 MW	1,142 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	1,026 MW	1,153 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	1,023 MW	1,118 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	1,035 MW	1,118 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	1,035 MW	1,102 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	997 MW	1,063 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	972 MW	1,012 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	913 MW	936 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	839 MW	859 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	801 MW	806 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	763 MW	747 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	745 MW	741 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	731 MW	731 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	739 MW	739 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	770 MW	772 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	842 MW	839 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	865 MW	857 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	866 MW	861 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	863 MW	864 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	887 MW	877 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	881 MW	901 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	922 MW	930 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	959 MW	979 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	963 MW	1,041 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	968 MW	1,063 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	998 MW	1,055 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	998 MW	1,027 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	1,037 MW	1,022 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	1,015 MW	1,006 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	982 MW	970 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	942 MW	931 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	896 MW	882 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	847 MW	828 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	788 MW	790 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	762 MW	758 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	738 MW	732 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	733 MW	715 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	734 MW	708 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	738 MW	709 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	764 MW	730 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	768 MW	733 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	747 MW	741 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	780 MW	754 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	799 MW	771 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	827 MW	790 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	872 MW	829 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	945 MW	880 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	1,001 MW	919 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	1,051 MW	957 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	1,103 MW	983 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	1,095 MW	972 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	1,057 MW	967 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	1,007 MW	958 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	976 MW	927 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	947 MW	891 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	901 MW	849 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	842 MW	801 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	801 MW	755 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	760 MW	751 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	735 MW	733 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	713 MW	733 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	703 MW	715 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	703 MW	706 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	708 MW	705 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	709 MW	708 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	720 MW	702 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	755 MW	707 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	787 MW	729 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	846 MW	762 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	874 MW	801 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	975 MW	864 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	1,036 MW	929 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	1,065 MW	992 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	1,093 MW	1,041 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	1,088 MW	1,071 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	1,108 MW	1,093 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	1,101 MW	1,068 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	1,069 MW	1,027 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	1,029 MW	992 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	984 MW	952 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	902 MW	890 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	850 MW	822 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	763 MW	760 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	732 MW	719 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	713 MW	702 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	710 MW	696 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	728 MW	708 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	769 MW	749 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	825 MW	803 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	844 MW	824 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	875 MW	832 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	859 MW	831 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	886 MW	842 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	526 MW	867 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	925 MW	910 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	940 MW	942 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	961 MW	962 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	993 MW	990 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	1,020 MW	1,011 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	1,038 MW	1,032 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	1,040 MW	1,022 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	1,008 MW	995 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	975 MW	967 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	936 MW	915 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	859 MW	845 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	792 MW	783 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	749 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 01:00	729 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 02:00	705 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 03:00	702 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 04:00	730 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 05:00	771 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 06:00	817 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 07:00	807 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 08:00	788 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 09:00	783 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 10:00	787 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 11:00	805 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 12:00	818 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 13:00	865 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 14:00	923 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 15:00	970 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 16:00	1,030 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 17:00	1,045 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 18:00	1,027 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 19:00	996 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 20:00	970 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 21:00	914 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 22:00	860 MW	n/a
3 Nov, 23:00	782 MW	n/a
4 Nov, 00:00	737 MW	757 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	711 MW	721 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	707 MW	709 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	710 MW	709 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	738 MW	728 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	772 MW	775 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	826 MW	833 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	831 MW	833 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	814 MW	811 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	797 MW	791 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	796 MW	789 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	798 MW	803 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	827 MW	828 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	870 MW	875 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	930 MW	934 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	991 MW	996 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	1,028 MW	1,044 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	1,041 MW	1,073 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	1,034 MW	1,062 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	1,018 MW	1,023 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	984 MW	983 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	931 MW	931 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	860 MW	862 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	808 MW	799 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	756 MW	762 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	732 MW	736 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	720 MW	722 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	726 MW	719 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	727 MW	735 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	774 MW	779 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	831 MW	836 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_epe_2026,
  title = {{EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/epe/

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EPE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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