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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SCL was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SCL was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SCL came 22 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 34 MW, against average demand of 1,042 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 22% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.2%
Bias-2.5%
Hours within 5%80%
Worst miss154 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-26 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 960 MW, reported 1,114 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
SCL day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SCL over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 375 750 1,125 1,500 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SCL over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:001,262 MW1,217 MW
29 Oct, 08:001,291 MW1,241 MW
29 Oct, 09:001,275 MW1,221 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,269 MW1,195 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,259 MW1,173 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,243 MW1,142 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,190 MW1,114 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,156 MW1,093 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,151 MW1,079 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,181 MW1,119 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,240 MW1,154 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,250 MW1,189 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,219 MW1,187 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,190 MW1,164 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,133 MW1,121 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,077 MW1,046 MW
29 Oct, 23:00999 MW977 MW
30 Oct, 00:00960 MW945 MW
30 Oct, 01:00892 MW908 MW
30 Oct, 02:00869 MW887 MW
30 Oct, 03:00863 MW886 MW
30 Oct, 04:00891 MW916 MW
30 Oct, 05:00969 MW996 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,116 MW1,118 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,219 MW1,220 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,260 MW1,257 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,246 MW1,268 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,274 MW1,264 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,271 MW1,255 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,288 MW1,246 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,287 MW1,231 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,270 MW1,207 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,233 MW1,190 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,224 MW1,196 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,260 MW1,215 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,261 MW1,234 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,223 MW1,205 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,183 MW1,181 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,141 MW1,137 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,083 MW1,081 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,027 MW1,027 MW
31 Oct, 00:00986 MW993 MW
31 Oct, 01:00948 MW953 MW
31 Oct, 02:00923 MW929 MW
31 Oct, 03:00918 MW919 MW
31 Oct, 04:00928 MW929 MW
31 Oct, 05:00985 MW964 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,036 MW1,019 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,090 MW1,082 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,155 MW1,134 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,205 MW1,149 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,202 MW1,136 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,188 MW1,118 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,142 MW1,095 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,108 MW1,062 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,090 MW1,043 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,091 MW1,041 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,105 MW1,051 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,140 MW1,093 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,161 MW1,129 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,146 MW1,136 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,124 MW1,119 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,117 MW1,088 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,080 MW1,044 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,042 MW996 MW
1 Nov, 00:00995 MW969 MW
1 Nov, 01:00970 MW933 MW
1 Nov, 01:00942 MW1,038 MW
1 Nov, 02:00924 MW933 MW
1 Nov, 03:00919 MW915 MW
1 Nov, 04:00927 MW912 MW
1 Nov, 05:00932 MW927 MW
1 Nov, 06:00979 MW960 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,028 MW1,008 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,079 MW1,052 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,126 MW1,090 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,181 MW1,119 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,196 MW1,123 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,170 MW1,116 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,139 MW1,096 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,145 MW1,082 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,176 MW1,071 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,219 MW1,104 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,298 MW1,177 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,281 MW1,247 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,299 MW1,256 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,230 MW1,243 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,211 MW1,218 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,129 MW1,176 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,039 MW1,106 MW
2 Nov, 00:00977 MW990 MW
2 Nov, 01:00960 MW959 MW
2 Nov, 02:00943 MW948 MW
2 Nov, 03:00955 MW957 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,007 MW998 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,122 MW1,095 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,257 MW1,229 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,348 MW1,315 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,367 MW1,320 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,358 MW1,296 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,310 MW1,263 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,254 MW1,228 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,242 MW1,181 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,233 MW1,147 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,222 MW1,123 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,244 MW1,139 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,281 MW1,203 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,344 MW1,264 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,314 MW1,258 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,277 MW1,227 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,233 MW1,193 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,167 MW1,144 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,083 MW1,062 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,002 MW984 MW
3 Nov, 00:00957 MW961 MW
3 Nov, 01:00909 MW921 MW
3 Nov, 02:00892 MW904 MW
3 Nov, 03:00894 MW908 MW
3 Nov, 04:00921 MW946 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,026 MW1,037 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,166 MW1,172 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,248 MW1,261 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,272 MW1,274 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,244 MW1,256 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,210 MW1,235 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,164 MW1,207 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,146 MW1,187 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,141 MW1,176 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,124 MW1,173 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,123 MW1,184 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,186 MW1,232 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,260 MW1,295 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,243 MW1,294 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,216 MW1,266 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,182 MW1,227 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,132 MW1,177 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,062 MW1,107 MW
3 Nov, 23:00982 MW1,025 MW
4 Nov, 00:00946 MW946 MW
4 Nov, 01:00907 MW912 MW
4 Nov, 02:00897 MW895 MW
4 Nov, 03:00893 MW900 MW
4 Nov, 04:00944 MW936 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,039 MW1,027 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,187 MW1,163 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,267 MW1,248 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,260 MW1,249 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,221 MW1,230 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,199 MW1,204 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,204 MW1,174 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,193 MW1,152 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,174 MW1,138 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,158 MW1,135 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,170 MW1,147 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,216 MW1,189 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,260 MW1,232 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,248 MW1,224 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,218 MW1,200 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,176 MW1,160 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,111 MW1,107 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,034 MW1,035 MW
4 Nov, 23:00954 MW959 MW
5 Nov, 00:00901 MW912 MW
5 Nov, 01:00860 MW871 MW
5 Nov, 02:00828 MW852 MW
5 Nov, 03:00836 MW852 MW
5 Nov, 04:00858 MW883 MW
5 Nov, 05:00885 MW969 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_scl_2026,
  title = {{SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/}
}

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