CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CHPD was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 27 MW (13.4%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for CHPD was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 27 MW (13.4%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CHPD came 15 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 6 MW, against average demand of 212 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error2.9%

Bias+0.2%

Hours within 5%85%

Worst miss27 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 27 MW (13.4%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 228 MW, reported 201 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CHPD over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:00	306 MW	297 MW
29 Oct, 08:00	306 MW	295 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	283 MW	285 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	264 MW	274 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	247 MW	265 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	236 MW	258 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	231 MW	251 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	226 MW	247 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	224 MW	246 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	234 MW	240 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	240 MW	246 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	245 MW	251 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	243 MW	251 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	239 MW	247 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	231 MW	241 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	220 MW	231 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	213 MW	219 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	210 MW	212 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	211 MW	212 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	212 MW	214 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	216 MW	219 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	223 MW	230 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	241 MW	248 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	260 MW	271 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	267 MW	294 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	271 MW	294 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	267 MW	286 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	260 MW	276 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	262 MW	265 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	247 MW	258 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	231 MW	248 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	231 MW	242 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	230 MW	238 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	224 MW	231 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	234 MW	234 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	236 MW	239 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	242 MW	240 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	240 MW	239 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	240 MW	237 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	234 MW	231 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	231 MW	224 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	232 MW	223 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	233 MW	225 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	238 MW	229 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	244 MW	232 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	252 MW	243 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	262 MW	257 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	281 MW	273 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	292 MW	283 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	301 MW	289 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	292 MW	281 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	266 MW	270 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	249 MW	256 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	233 MW	242 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	226 MW	231 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	214 MW	221 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	211 MW	218 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	211 MW	220 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	220 MW	224 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	221 MW	231 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	222 MW	232 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	224 MW	232 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	221 MW	227 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	217 MW	221 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	213 MW	214 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	216 MW	211 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	216 MW	214 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	220 MW	214 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	225 MW	218 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	233 MW	224 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	245 MW	233 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	257 MW	250 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	277 MW	267 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	287 MW	276 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	273 MW	274 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	253 MW	259 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	236 MW	240 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	221 MW	224 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	212 MW	212 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	201 MW	205 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	199 MW	201 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	201 MW	200 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	209 MW	210 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	228 MW	220 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	231 MW	224 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	233 MW	228 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	232 MW	229 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	229 MW	223 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	224 MW	217 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	217 MW	216 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	225 MW	216 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	229 MW	220 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	237 MW	226 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	248 MW	235 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	264 MW	252 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	289 MW	276 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	313 MW	297 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	324 MW	306 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	304 MW	296 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	280 MW	278 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	259 MW	262 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	244 MW	248 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	231 MW	238 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	227 MW	231 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	224 MW	230 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	222 MW	232 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	239 MW	239 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	249 MW	245 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	250 MW	248 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	247 MW	247 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	244 MW	243 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	238 MW	236 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	227 MW	225 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	223 MW	219 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	219 MW	223 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	216 MW	222 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	218 MW	223 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	224 MW	226 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	234 MW	234 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	254 MW	254 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	275 MW	272 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	279 MW	282 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	272 MW	278 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	253 MW	264 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	241 MW	251 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	228 MW	239 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	219 MW	228 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	215 MW	222 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	209 MW	219 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	213 MW	220 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	226 MW	228 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	239 MW	236 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	244 MW	240 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	244 MW	242 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	241 MW	240 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	238 MW	231 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	227 MW	224 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	226 MW	217 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	223 MW	217 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	228 MW	219 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	234 MW	221 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	239 MW	226 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	254 MW	239 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	279 MW	263 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	303 MW	284 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	311 MW	293 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	292 MW	282 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	270 MW	264 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	248 MW	250 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	234 MW	237 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	219 MW	229 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	216 MW	225 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	215 MW	223 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	221 MW	226 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	228 MW	235 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	243 MW	242 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	243 MW	245 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	242 MW	245 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	241 MW	240 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	230 MW	230 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	221 MW	219 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	214 MW	212 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	211 MW	215 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	209 MW	214 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	212 MW	215 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	217 MW	220 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	229 MW	233 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	247 MW	256 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_chpd_2026,
  title = {{CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.

CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related