DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for DOPD was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 27 MW (11.3%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for DOPD was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 27 MW (11.3%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, DOPD came 23 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 9 MW, against average demand of 267 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 73% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.4%

Bias+2.4%

Hours within 5%75%

Worst miss27 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 27 MW (11.3%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 265 MW, reported 238 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for DOPD over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:00	345 MW	323 MW
29 Oct, 08:00	339 MW	319 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	329 MW	313 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	314 MW	305 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	303 MW	297 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	288 MW	289 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	282 MW	283 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	275 MW	281 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	276 MW	282 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	281 MW	285 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	291 MW	288 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	295 MW	290 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	292 MW	289 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	289 MW	285 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	283 MW	278 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	271 MW	269 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	263 MW	260 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	258 MW	261 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	261 MW	261 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	263 MW	265 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	265 MW	273 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	271 MW	285 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	290 MW	301 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	311 MW	316 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	319 MW	325 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	317 MW	322 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	312 MW	317 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	305 MW	311 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	299 MW	303 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	291 MW	294 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	281 MW	287 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	271 MW	284 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	275 MW	285 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	272 MW	288 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	284 MW	291 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	288 MW	293 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	285 MW	292 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	283 MW	288 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	278 MW	282 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	275 MW	277 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	264 MW	271 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	267 MW	265 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	267 MW	265 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	274 MW	269 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	274 MW	277 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	282 MW	290 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	299 MW	304 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	308 MW	317 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	322 MW	326 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	325 MW	324 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	318 MW	320 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	300 MW	314 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	286 MW	305 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	275 MW	295 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	266 MW	287 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	259 MW	283 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	259 MW	282 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	262 MW	284 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	266 MW	286 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	272 MW	288 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	269 MW	288 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	268 MW	286 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	265 MW	282 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	263 MW	277 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	261 MW	272 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	256 MW	265 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	260 MW	263 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	256 MW	263 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	264 MW	268 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	268 MW	278 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	279 MW	291 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	290 MW	303 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	307 MW	311 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	314 MW	314 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	303 MW	313 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	289 MW	308 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	280 MW	299 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	261 MW	288 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	258 MW	278 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	248 MW	270 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	247 MW	267 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	249 MW	270 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	258 MW	274 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	270 MW	278 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	273 MW	280 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	274 MW	280 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	271 MW	279 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	272 MW	275 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	264 MW	270 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	263 MW	264 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	262 MW	265 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	271 MW	266 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	270 MW	272 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	282 MW	281 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	296 MW	297 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	322 MW	318 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	352 MW	337 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	353 MW	349 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	338 MW	343 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	316 MW	334 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	298 MW	324 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	289 MW	312 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	283 MW	298 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	275 MW	287 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	276 MW	282 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	279 MW	284 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	289 MW	287 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	300 MW	290 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	299 MW	293 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	298 MW	293 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	290 MW	290 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	283 MW	285 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	276 MW	279 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	269 MW	272 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	264 MW	268 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	267 MW	266 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	269 MW	268 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	275 MW	276 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	282 MW	289 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	305 MW	304 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	324 MW	318 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	329 MW	329 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	320 MW	327 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	308 MW	321 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	298 MW	312 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	287 MW	302 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	275 MW	292 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	272 MW	284 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	269 MW	279 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	270 MW	281 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	281 MW	284 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	296 MW	288 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	295 MW	290 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	301 MW	290 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	296 MW	287 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	289 MW	282 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	290 MW	276 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	277 MW	270 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	278 MW	270 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	281 MW	270 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	287 MW	273 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	294 MW	283 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	303 MW	297 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	327 MW	318 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	348 MW	340 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	353 MW	348 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	335 MW	340 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	313 MW	325 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	297 MW	309 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	284 MW	297 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	273 MW	289 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	269 MW	283 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	268 MW	281 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	280 MW	284 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	287 MW	291 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	297 MW	296 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	293 MW	299 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	293 MW	298 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	289 MW	294 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	281 MW	287 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	271 MW	279 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	264 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	263 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	262 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	260 MW	275 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	265 MW	282 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	270 MW	294 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	288 MW	308 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_dopd_2026,
  title = {{DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/

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DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related