SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SEC was off by 30.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -30.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 180 MW (43.2%) too low at 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for SEC was off by 30.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -30.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 180 MW (43.2%) too low at 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SEC came 51 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 85 MW, against average demand of 280 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error30.2%

Bias-30.2%

Hours within 5%0%

Worst miss180 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-85 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 180 MW (43.2%) too low at 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 237 MW, reported 417 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:00	282 MW	185 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	295 MW	197 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	307 MW	206 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	320 MW	215 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	329 MW	223 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	328 MW	233 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	255 MW	242 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	347 MW	249 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	337 MW	244 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	339 MW	242 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	324 MW	231 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	303 MW	213 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	266 MW	192 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	244 MW	167 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	215 MW	151 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	204 MW	138 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	194 MW	131 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	186 MW	128 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	196 MW	130 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	211 MW	141 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	234 MW	155 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	247 MW	161 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	257 MW	167 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	271 MW	175 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	288 MW	184 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	297 MW	195 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	314 MW	206 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	327 MW	218 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	338 MW	226 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	345 MW	234 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	349 MW	237 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	345 MW	240 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	333 MW	233 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	319 MW	228 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	309 MW	216 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	293 MW	203 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	273 MW	185 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	253 MW	167 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	230 MW	158 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	215 MW	146 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	206 MW	137 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	199 MW	135 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	195 MW	134 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	202 MW	136 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	208 MW	142 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	222 MW	151 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	244 MW	167 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	271 MW	182 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	305 MW	200 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	328 MW	217 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	358 MW	238 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	378 MW	249 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	392 MW	257 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	403 MW	261 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	402 MW	262 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	380 MW	261 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	347 MW	250 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	315 MW	243 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	305 MW	228 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	292 MW	213 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	277 MW	195 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	253 MW	176 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	211 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	197 MW	169 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	185 MW	157 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	179 MW	149 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	176 MW	144 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	176 MW	141 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	179 MW	143 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	188 MW	148 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	208 MW	159 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	229 MW	177 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	245 MW	196 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	259 MW	212 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	269 MW	227 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	278 MW	240 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	279 MW	244 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	276 MW	248 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	276 MW	247 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	282 MW	246 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	289 MW	236 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	294 MW	231 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	288 MW	223 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	275 MW	209 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	255 MW	199 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	235 MW	189 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	214 MW	168 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	211 MW	155 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	194 MW	145 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	191 MW	140 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	191 MW	138 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	197 MW	141 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	217 MW	153 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	243 MW	167 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	254 MW	175 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	265 MW	179 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	283 MW	188 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	304 MW	200 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	314 MW	215 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	326 MW	227 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	317 MW	233 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	318 MW	239 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	330 MW	243 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	355 MW	244 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	366 MW	241 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	381 MW	239 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	366 MW	229 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	345 MW	214 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	320 MW	203 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	289 MW	192 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	255 MW	170 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	236 MW	156 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	226 MW	148 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	220 MW	139 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	219 MW	138 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	228 MW	143 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	244 MW	154 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	272 MW	172 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	289 MW	179 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	300 MW	182 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	316 MW	192 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	332 MW	201 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	369 MW	213 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	348 MW	229 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	363 MW	236 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	361 MW	244 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	315 MW	250 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	390 MW	249 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	414 MW	253 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	405 MW	261 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	383 MW	252 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	417 MW	237 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	378 MW	217 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	295 MW	194 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	259 MW	172 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	241 MW	157 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	225 MW	146 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	213 MW	141 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	208 MW	139 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	214 MW	143 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	232 MW	154 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	255 MW	170 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	276 MW	176 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	297 MW	182 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	322 MW	193 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	350 MW	210 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	383 MW	229 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	408 MW	244 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	390 MW	253 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	428 MW	257 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	425 MW	263 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	423 MW	265 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	423 MW	265 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	418 MW	260 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	392 MW	254 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	367 MW	240 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	335 MW	223 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	301 MW	200 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	266 MW	177 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	208 MW	166 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	195 MW	153 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	184 MW	146 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	178 MW	142 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	182 MW	145 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	196 MW	155 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	215 MW	170 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	223 MW	177 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	235 MW	184 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_sec_2026,
  title = {{SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/

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SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related