TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TAL was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 79 MW (17.9%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for TAL was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 79 MW (17.9%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TAL came 27 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 12 MW, against average demand of 304 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 29% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.9%

Bias-2.1%

Hours within 5%70%

Worst miss79 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-8 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 79 MW (17.9%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 363 MW, reported 442 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TAL over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:00	318 MW	295 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	342 MW	310 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	360 MW	325 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	380 MW	341 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	391 MW	355 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	399 MW	368 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	398 MW	376 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	405 MW	373 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	402 MW	367 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	400 MW	362 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	385 MW	349 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	362 MW	330 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	339 MW	303 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	315 MW	274 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	295 MW	266 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	280 MW	249 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	253 MW	237 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	233 MW	227 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	230 MW	224 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	236 MW	238 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	262 MW	254 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	295 MW	268 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	298 MW	278 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	306 MW	290 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	325 MW	306 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	344 MW	322 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	362 MW	340 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	379 MW	352 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	394 MW	360 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	412 MW	367 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	401 MW	366 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	394 MW	362 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	399 MW	361 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	383 MW	354 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	362 MW	336 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	351 MW	318 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	332 MW	301 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	311 MW	280 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	292 MW	270 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	279 MW	254 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	255 MW	243 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	237 MW	233 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	229 MW	234 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	227 MW	238 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	233 MW	246 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	244 MW	247 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	256 MW	251 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	274 MW	268 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	303 MW	284 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	332 MW	300 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	358 MW	314 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	375 MW	324 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	383 MW	337 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	383 MW	348 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	379 MW	345 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	371 MW	340 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	359 MW	338 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	354 MW	337 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	340 MW	329 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	328 MW	308 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	312 MW	292 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	296 MW	276 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	264 MW	293 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	279 MW	277 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	255 MW	255 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	249 MW	246 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	241 MW	238 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	235 MW	232 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	234 MW	242 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	239 MW	249 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	246 MW	248 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	262 MW	253 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	275 MW	272 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	287 MW	287 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	294 MW	301 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	298 MW	311 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	300 MW	313 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	300 MW	309 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	300 MW	306 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	302 MW	306 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	309 MW	307 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	324 MW	320 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	320 MW	327 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	311 MW	316 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	297 MW	296 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	279 MW	274 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	257 MW	251 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	239 MW	241 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	226 MW	231 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	219 MW	225 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	216 MW	223 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	219 MW	226 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	231 MW	240 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	258 MW	261 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	275 MW	280 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	287 MW	294 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	297 MW	306 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	308 MW	317 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	319 MW	313 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	332 MW	329 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	347 MW	345 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	360 MW	348 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	369 MW	351 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	362 MW	375 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	376 MW	375 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	396 MW	359 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	389 MW	356 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	363 MW	338 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	343 MW	312 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	317 MW	291 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	282 MW	257 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	255 MW	253 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	242 MW	240 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	233 MW	231 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	230 MW	227 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	233 MW	230 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	244 MW	265 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	285 MW	282 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	311 MW	289 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	314 MW	296 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	328 MW	307 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	350 MW	318 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	366 MW	334 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	377 MW	349 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	390 MW	365 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	402 MW	372 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	399 MW	370 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	381 MW	368 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	378 MW	360 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	389 MW	357 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	379 MW	356 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	363 MW	340 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	337 MW	315 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	312 MW	291 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	291 MW	270 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	268 MW	266 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	253 MW	251 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	244 MW	242 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	238 MW	236 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	238 MW	236 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	250 MW	272 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	286 MW	286 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	314 MW	291 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	331 MW	299 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	344 MW	310 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	349 MW	318 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	358 MW	330 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	360 MW	342 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	353 MW	348 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	375 MW	353 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	377 MW	354 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	371 MW	352 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	367 MW	357 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	383 MW	367 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	379 MW	368 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	375 MW	351 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	359 MW	325 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	331 MW	300 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	308 MW	277 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	285 MW	276 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	267 MW	261 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	256 MW	250 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	247 MW	245 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	247 MW	245 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	258 MW	279 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	296 MW	293 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	323 MW	303 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	336 MW	313 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tal_2026,
  title = {{TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/

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TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related