TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TIDC was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 715 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for TIDC was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 715 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TIDC came 14 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 8 MW, against average demand of 314 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

715 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error2.7%

Bias+0.3%

Hours within 5%86%

Worst miss54 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 415 MW, reported 361 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TIDC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 06:00	302 MW	300 MW
29 Oct, 07:00	319 MW	316 MW
29 Oct, 08:00	317 MW	316 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	307 MW	310 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	306 MW	303 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	295 MW	301 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	301 MW	301 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	301 MW	304 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	310 MW	312 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	314 MW	318 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	318 MW	324 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	320 MW	329 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	329 MW	336 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	328 MW	338 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	324 MW	331 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	316 MW	321 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	300 MW	305 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	285 MW	290 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	272 MW	272 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	263 MW	262 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	258 MW	256 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	255 MW	255 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	259 MW	260 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	273 MW	271 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	295 MW	293 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	312 MW	312 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	311 MW	313 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	309 MW	302 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	303 MW	296 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	294 MW	290 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	292 MW	290 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	287 MW	298 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	294 MW	307 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	306 MW	314 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	313 MW	316 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	320 MW	325 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	326 MW	330 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	322 MW	328 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	314 MW	317 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	305 MW	307 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	293 MW	294 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	277 MW	279 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	264 MW	263 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	253 MW	254 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	245 MW	248 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	241 MW	245 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	242 MW	246 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	246 MW	250 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	254 MW	258 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	261 MW	265 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	265 MW	264 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	259 MW	265 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	248 MW	271 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	244 MW	271 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	253 MW	273 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	261 MW	273 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	270 MW	276 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	271 MW	282 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	275 MW	290 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	283 MW	296 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	285 MW	301 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	277 MW	301 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	272 MW	295 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	268 MW	278 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	260 MW	268 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	251 MW	257 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	241 MW	246 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	231 MW	237 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	222 MW	227 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	220 MW	226 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	221 MW	227 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	224 MW	230 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	230 MW	235 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	232 MW	236 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	227 MW	241 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	216 MW	241 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	212 MW	238 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	212 MW	241 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	214 MW	243 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	219 MW	249 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	232 MW	258 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	253 MW	272 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	273 MW	284 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	290 MW	298 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	292 MW	299 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	290 MW	296 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	284 MW	289 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	276 MW	280 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	262 MW	267 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	250 MW	255 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	225 MW	232 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	239 MW	247 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	235 MW	240 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	232 MW	236 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	235 MW	237 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	242 MW	243 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	259 MW	260 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	287 MW	287 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	300 MW	301 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	295 MW	299 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	276 MW	295 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	291 MW	291 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	306 MW	289 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	300 MW	291 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	299 MW	293 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	303 MW	296 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	308 MW	300 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	313 MW	310 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	325 MW	323 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	325 MW	329 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	322 MW	327 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	316 MW	320 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	306 MW	309 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	290 MW	292 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	275 MW	278 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	263 MW	266 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	256 MW	258 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	253 MW	254 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	252 MW	253 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	259 MW	260 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	274 MW	274 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	297 MW	298 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	302 MW	309 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	297 MW	306 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	283 MW	299 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	300 MW	294 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	306 MW	291 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	304 MW	294 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	296 MW	298 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	297 MW	304 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	316 MW	311 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	318 MW	320 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	327 MW	330 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	329 MW	328 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	324 MW	323 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	318 MW	317 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	309 MW	307 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	292 MW	292 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	280 MW	278 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	268 MW	267 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	260 MW	259 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	256 MW	254 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	256 MW	253 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	263 MW	260 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	277 MW	275 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	300 MW	298 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	309 MW	304 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	306 MW	297 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	294 MW	289 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	279 MW	282 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	272 MW	276 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	274 MW	279 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	281 MW	286 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	292 MW	295 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	307 MW	307 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	320 MW	318 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	333 MW	329 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	332 MW	327 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	326 MW	322 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	320 MW	317 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	313 MW	306 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	297 MW	291 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	284 MW	278 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	272 MW	265 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	262 MW	257 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	256 MW	251 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	257 MW	251 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	263 MW	258 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (715 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tidc_2026,
  title = {{TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

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TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related