CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLW was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLW was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLW came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 15 MW, against average demand of 475 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.1%

Bias+0.5%

Hours within 5%81%

Worst miss69 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 568 MW, reported 499 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLW over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:00	527 MW	509 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	502 MW	488 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	484 MW	473 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	474 MW	465 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	471 MW	463 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	480 MW	471 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	482 MW	486 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	430 MW	499 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	444 MW	511 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	503 MW	513 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	513 MW	504 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	493 MW	477 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	453 MW	448 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	428 MW	419 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	403 MW	400 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	396 MW	388 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	396 MW	385 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	404 MW	389 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	420 MW	402 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	449 MW	438 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	509 MW	489 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	551 MW	531 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	570 MW	542 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	557 MW	527 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	525 MW	499 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	498 MW	475 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	474 MW	463 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	470 MW	460 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	467 MW	459 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	476 MW	468 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	489 MW	481 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	496 MW	486 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	495 MW	486 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	500 MW	479 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	486 MW	466 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	466 MW	444 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	436 MW	421 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	411 MW	398 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	388 MW	383 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	372 MW	365 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	369 MW	357 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	363 MW	354 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	379 MW	359 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	391 MW	373 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	414 MW	396 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	444 MW	430 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	481 MW	466 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	496 MW	487 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	491 MW	487 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	485 MW	472 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	480 MW	456 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	470 MW	441 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	459 MW	430 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	465 MW	424 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	462 MW	432 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	461 MW	447 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	459 MW	465 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	465 MW	472 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	460 MW	466 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	454 MW	449 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	435 MW	429 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	412 MW	415 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	412 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	372 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	369 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 02:00	363 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 03:00	379 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 04:00	391 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 05:00	414 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 06:00	444 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 07:00	481 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 08:00	496 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 09:00	491 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 10:00	485 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 11:00	480 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 12:00	470 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 13:00	459 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 14:00	465 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 15:00	462 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 16:00	461 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 17:00	459 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 18:00	465 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 19:00	460 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 20:00	454 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 21:00	435 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 22:00	412 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 23:00	n/a	n/a
2 Nov, 00:00	411 MW	415 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	404 MW	410 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	396 MW	412 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	402 MW	421 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	413 MW	443 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	443 MW	490 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	502 MW	549 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	532 MW	585 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	537 MW	583 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	541 MW	557 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	522 MW	526 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	508 MW	498 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	497 MW	481 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	486 MW	468 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	480 MW	460 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	487 MW	460 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	498 MW	478 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	528 MW	513 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	547 MW	544 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	536 MW	550 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	512 MW	535 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	485 MW	509 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	453 MW	483 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	423 MW	455 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	408 MW	426 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	402 MW	416 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	393 MW	415 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	401 MW	419 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	413 MW	435 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	443 MW	473 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	494 MW	525 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	525 MW	560 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	529 MW	558 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	518 MW	531 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	506 MW	503 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	491 MW	481 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	477 MW	469 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	472 MW	463 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	477 MW	462 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	480 MW	467 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	486 MW	485 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	516 MW	514 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	538 MW	532 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	524 MW	527 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	504 MW	506 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	479 MW	478 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	443 MW	450 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	408 MW	424 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	384 MW	391 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	368 MW	380 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	364 MW	376 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	360 MW	379 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	368 MW	395 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	401 MW	435 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	447 MW	487 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	475 MW	519 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	489 MW	520 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	492 MW	505 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	494 MW	492 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	496 MW	480 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	500 MW	473 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	503 MW	466 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	505 MW	465 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	513 MW	469 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	523 MW	489 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	540 MW	521 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	543 MW	543 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	528 MW	540 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	509 MW	521 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	485 MW	494 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	445 MW	464 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	415 MW	431 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	392 MW	399 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	377 MW	385 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	366 MW	380 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	368 MW	381 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	375 MW	392 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	402 MW	428 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	452 MW	477 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	476 MW	508 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	488 MW	507 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cplw_2026,
  title = {{CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

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CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related