TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TPWR was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 65 MW (11.0%) too low at 1 Nov 2026, 21:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for TPWR was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 65 MW (11.0%) too low at 1 Nov 2026, 21:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TPWR came 11 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 11 MW, against average demand of 493 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 67% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

718 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error2.2%

Bias+1.1%

Hours within 5%93%

Worst miss65 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 65 MW (11.0%) too low at 1 Nov 2026, 21:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 527 MW, reported 592 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TPWR over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:00	614 MW	614 MW
29 Oct, 08:00	615 MW	621 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	617 MW	612 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	616 MW	602 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	607 MW	590 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	589 MW	579 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	564 MW	568 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	547 MW	558 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	545 MW	560 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	561 MW	574 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	591 MW	595 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	610 MW	612 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	601 MW	613 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	589 MW	604 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	557 MW	576 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	515 MW	536 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	483 MW	503 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	461 MW	475 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	446 MW	460 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	433 MW	455 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	441 MW	459 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	457 MW	474 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	496 MW	515 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	548 MW	569 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	591 MW	607 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	590 MW	621 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	601 MW	623 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	601 MW	621 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	610 MW	613 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	602 MW	601 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	588 MW	587 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	575 MW	576 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	557 MW	573 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	559 MW	584 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	586 MW	604 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	597 MW	611 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	592 MW	609 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	574 MW	599 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	554 MW	578 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	537 MW	547 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	504 MW	522 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	491 MW	492 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	476 MW	477 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	477 MW	474 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	477 MW	477 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	492 MW	482 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	517 MW	506 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	557 MW	544 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	594 MW	581 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	622 MW	609 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	633 MW	615 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	615 MW	599 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	597 MW	583 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	569 MW	558 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	553 MW	537 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	544 MW	522 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	534 MW	519 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	535 MW	530 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	540 MW	550 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	551 MW	565 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	541 MW	560 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	532 MW	549 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	532 MW	530 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	512 MW	511 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	493 MW	492 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	478 MW	484 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	448 MW	469 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	450 MW	460 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	436 MW	459 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	441 MW	466 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	448 MW	480 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	463 MW	510 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	489 MW	542 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	523 MW	568 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	557 MW	582 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	571 MW	574 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	572 MW	556 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	572 MW	543 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	568 MW	528 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	560 MW	519 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	556 MW	519 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	565 MW	542 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	584 MW	575 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	619 MW	595 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	622 MW	593 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	623 MW	578 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	608 MW	557 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	592 MW	527 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	549 MW	503 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	525 MW	n/a
2 Nov, 00:00	510 MW	508 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	498 MW	498 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	499 MW	498 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	505 MW	508 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	524 MW	533 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	565 MW	584 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	632 MW	642 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	664 MW	679 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	665 MW	675 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	663 MW	657 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	647 MW	634 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	625 MW	616 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	602 MW	601 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	583 MW	586 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	581 MW	580 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	587 MW	590 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	617 MW	619 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	653 MW	653 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	649 MW	649 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	638 MW	627 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	619 MW	607 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	584 MW	577 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	547 MW	541 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	509 MW	506 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	488 MW	492 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	471 MW	476 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	465 MW	472 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	472 MW	477 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	491 MW	497 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	536 MW	543 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	590 MW	596 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	613 MW	630 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	617 MW	628 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	603 MW	613 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	576 MW	596 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	553 MW	578 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	547 MW	567 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	523 MW	550 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	528 MW	544 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	525 MW	552 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	554 MW	579 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	591 MW	613 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	596 MW	624 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	598 MW	612 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	577 MW	590 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	556 MW	565 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	522 MW	534 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	488 MW	503 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	477 MW	476 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	467 MW	461 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	471 MW	460 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	474 MW	466 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	501 MW	489 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	560 MW	534 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	620 MW	588 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	656 MW	622 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	647 MW	621 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	634 MW	608 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	608 MW	589 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	586 MW	572 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	561 MW	560 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	553 MW	546 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	545 MW	546 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	554 MW	552 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	586 MW	579 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	614 MW	603 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	612 MW	602 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	590 MW	584 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	575 MW	562 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	535 MW	531 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	500 MW	500 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	461 MW	467 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	438 MW	454 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	432 MW	435 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	427 MW	429 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	433 MW	432 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	453 MW	453 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	496 MW	495 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (718 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tpwr_2026,
  title = {{TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tpwr/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.

TPWR Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related