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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Czechia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Czechia was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 100% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 313 MW (3.7%) too low at 4 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Prague).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Czechia was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 100% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 313 MW (3.7%) too low at 4 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Czechia came 1 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 73 MW, against average demand of 6,591 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error1.1%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%100%
Worst miss313 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 313 MW (3.7%) too low at 4 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 8,210 MW, reported 8,523 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Czechia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Czechia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 13 Sept, 15:0014 Sept, 15:0015 Sept, 15:0016 Sept, 15:0017 Sept, 15:0018 Sept, 15:0019 Sept, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Czechia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Czechia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 15:006,393 MW6,287 MW
13 Sept, 16:006,208 MW6,159 MW
13 Sept, 17:006,174 MW6,029 MW
13 Sept, 18:006,291 MW6,133 MW
13 Sept, 19:006,422 MW6,347 MW
13 Sept, 20:006,178 MW6,253 MW
13 Sept, 21:005,892 MW5,905 MW
13 Sept, 22:005,823 MW5,785 MW
13 Sept, 23:005,566 MW5,512 MW
14 Sept, 00:005,355 MW5,300 MW
14 Sept, 01:005,328 MW5,330 MW
14 Sept, 02:005,257 MW5,175 MW
14 Sept, 03:005,237 MW5,122 MW
14 Sept, 04:005,310 MW5,260 MW
14 Sept, 05:005,801 MW5,751 MW
14 Sept, 06:006,820 MW6,818 MW
14 Sept, 07:007,235 MW7,320 MW
14 Sept, 08:007,671 MW7,694 MW
14 Sept, 09:007,995 MW8,005 MW
14 Sept, 10:008,082 MW8,091 MW
14 Sept, 11:008,271 MW8,288 MW
14 Sept, 12:008,318 MW8,384 MW
14 Sept, 13:008,320 MW8,296 MW
14 Sept, 14:008,083 MW7,981 MW
14 Sept, 15:007,835 MW7,772 MW
14 Sept, 16:007,577 MW7,527 MW
14 Sept, 17:007,341 MW7,334 MW
14 Sept, 18:007,090 MW7,190 MW
14 Sept, 19:007,148 MW7,288 MW
14 Sept, 20:006,911 MW7,086 MW
14 Sept, 21:006,490 MW6,622 MW
14 Sept, 22:006,228 MW6,242 MW
14 Sept, 23:005,915 MW5,888 MW
15 Sept, 00:005,613 MW5,617 MW
15 Sept, 01:005,578 MW5,589 MW
15 Sept, 02:005,479 MW5,459 MW
15 Sept, 03:005,499 MW5,404 MW
15 Sept, 04:005,623 MW5,515 MW
15 Sept, 05:006,043 MW5,990 MW
15 Sept, 06:007,083 MW6,967 MW
15 Sept, 07:007,426 MW7,459 MW
15 Sept, 08:007,814 MW7,801 MW
15 Sept, 09:008,171 MW8,170 MW
15 Sept, 10:008,223 MW8,288 MW
15 Sept, 11:008,526 MW8,441 MW
15 Sept, 12:008,558 MW8,506 MW
15 Sept, 13:008,399 MW8,400 MW
15 Sept, 14:008,007 MW8,049 MW
15 Sept, 15:007,735 MW7,795 MW
15 Sept, 16:007,524 MW7,530 MW
15 Sept, 17:007,339 MW7,313 MW
15 Sept, 18:007,124 MW7,162 MW
15 Sept, 19:007,305 MW7,308 MW
15 Sept, 20:007,060 MW7,100 MW
15 Sept, 21:006,645 MW6,643 MW
15 Sept, 22:006,325 MW6,283 MW
15 Sept, 23:006,011 MW5,906 MW
16 Sept, 00:005,678 MW5,631 MW
16 Sept, 01:005,588 MW5,605 MW
16 Sept, 02:005,468 MW5,446 MW
16 Sept, 03:005,411 MW5,402 MW
16 Sept, 04:005,571 MW5,514 MW
16 Sept, 05:005,955 MW6,011 MW
16 Sept, 06:006,922 MW7,021 MW
16 Sept, 07:007,363 MW7,444 MW
16 Sept, 08:007,831 MW7,840 MW
16 Sept, 09:008,222 MW8,186 MW
16 Sept, 10:008,245 MW8,256 MW
16 Sept, 11:008,414 MW8,424 MW
16 Sept, 12:008,454 MW8,505 MW
16 Sept, 13:008,382 MW8,403 MW
16 Sept, 14:008,012 MW8,080 MW
16 Sept, 15:007,816 MW7,817 MW
16 Sept, 16:007,667 MW7,598 MW
16 Sept, 17:007,476 MW7,401 MW
16 Sept, 18:007,300 MW7,260 MW
16 Sept, 19:007,413 MW7,426 MW
16 Sept, 20:007,109 MW7,139 MW
16 Sept, 21:006,625 MW6,681 MW
16 Sept, 22:006,313 MW6,318 MW
16 Sept, 23:005,927 MW5,967 MW
17 Sept, 00:005,659 MW5,744 MW
17 Sept, 01:005,677 MW5,691 MW
17 Sept, 02:005,504 MW5,534 MW
17 Sept, 03:005,438 MW5,487 MW
17 Sept, 04:005,609 MW5,574 MW
17 Sept, 05:006,010 MW6,056 MW
17 Sept, 06:007,008 MW7,071 MW
17 Sept, 07:007,447 MW7,516 MW
17 Sept, 08:007,851 MW7,869 MW
17 Sept, 09:008,170 MW8,171 MW
17 Sept, 10:008,327 MW8,184 MW
17 Sept, 11:008,496 MW8,348 MW
17 Sept, 12:008,632 MW8,422 MW
17 Sept, 13:008,560 MW8,308 MW
17 Sept, 14:007,988 MW7,981 MW
17 Sept, 15:007,708 MW7,740 MW
17 Sept, 16:007,529 MW7,507 MW
17 Sept, 17:007,279 MW7,299 MW
17 Sept, 18:007,071 MW7,148 MW
17 Sept, 19:007,203 MW7,304 MW
17 Sept, 20:006,985 MW7,051 MW
17 Sept, 21:006,634 MW6,590 MW
17 Sept, 22:006,254 MW6,255 MW
17 Sept, 23:005,981 MW5,897 MW
18 Sept, 00:005,735 MW5,585 MW
18 Sept, 01:005,682 MW5,552 MW
18 Sept, 02:005,604 MW5,418 MW
18 Sept, 03:005,474 MW5,379 MW
18 Sept, 04:005,536 MW5,485 MW
18 Sept, 05:006,062 MW5,954 MW
18 Sept, 06:006,965 MW6,918 MW
18 Sept, 07:007,384 MW7,367 MW
18 Sept, 08:007,716 MW7,713 MW
18 Sept, 09:008,073 MW8,082 MW
18 Sept, 10:008,252 MW8,174 MW
18 Sept, 11:008,409 MW8,323 MW
18 Sept, 12:008,533 MW8,318 MW
18 Sept, 13:008,306 MW8,143 MW
18 Sept, 14:007,912 MW7,768 MW
18 Sept, 15:007,600 MW7,486 MW
18 Sept, 16:007,263 MW7,265 MW
18 Sept, 17:007,036 MW7,028 MW
18 Sept, 18:006,911 MW6,816 MW
18 Sept, 19:006,977 MW6,936 MW
18 Sept, 20:006,738 MW6,678 MW
18 Sept, 21:006,299 MW6,227 MW
18 Sept, 22:005,906 MW5,841 MW
18 Sept, 23:005,585 MW5,488 MW
19 Sept, 00:005,215 MW5,132 MW
19 Sept, 01:005,118 MW4,974 MW
19 Sept, 02:005,002 MW4,947 MW
19 Sept, 03:005,076 MW4,956 MW
19 Sept, 04:005,020 MW4,976 MW
19 Sept, 05:005,055 MW5,036 MW
19 Sept, 06:005,361 MW5,237 MW
19 Sept, 07:005,760 MW5,631 MW
19 Sept, 08:006,441 MW6,163 MW
19 Sept, 09:006,942 MW6,782 MW
19 Sept, 10:007,229 MW7,114 MW
19 Sept, 11:007,404 MW7,383 MW
19 Sept, 12:007,263 MW7,271 MW
19 Sept, 13:007,113 MW7,071 MW
19 Sept, 14:006,782 MW6,700 MW
19 Sept, 15:006,455 MW6,370 MW
19 Sept, 16:006,145 MW6,149 MW
19 Sept, 17:005,877 MW5,902 MW
19 Sept, 18:005,678 MW5,833 MW
19 Sept, 19:005,925 MW6,054 MW
19 Sept, 20:005,748 MW5,849 MW
19 Sept, 21:005,567 MW5,544 MW
19 Sept, 22:005,373 MW5,352 MW
19 Sept, 23:005,038 MW5,083 MW
20 Sept, 00:004,826 MW4,829 MW
20 Sept, 01:004,610 MW4,692 MW
20 Sept, 02:004,583 MW4,679 MW
20 Sept, 03:004,590 MW4,686 MW
20 Sept, 04:004,642 MW4,712 MW
20 Sept, 05:004,594 MW4,718 MW
20 Sept, 06:004,758 MW4,849 MW
20 Sept, 07:005,143 MW5,209 MW
20 Sept, 08:005,861 MW5,788 MW
20 Sept, 09:006,496 MW6,476 MW
20 Sept, 10:006,909 MW6,851 MW
20 Sept, 11:007,223 MW7,141 MW
20 Sept, 12:007,113 MW7,037 MW
20 Sept, 13:006,986 MW6,911 MW
20 Sept, 14:006,679 MW6,609 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.