DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for DUK was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,485 MW (12.5%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for DUK was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,485 MW (12.5%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, DUK came 9 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 218 MW, against average demand of 10,949 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error2.1%

Bias+0.3%

Hours within 5%91%

Worst miss1,485 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+25 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,485 MW (12.5%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 13,402 MW, reported 11,917 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for DUK over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:00	11,169 MW	11,114 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	11,179 MW	11,138 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	11,221 MW	11,246 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	11,550 MW	11,406 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	11,647 MW	11,568 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	11,844 MW	11,799 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	12,082 MW	12,010 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	12,235 MW	12,072 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	12,196 MW	12,067 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	12,260 MW	12,013 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	11,852 MW	11,650 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	11,233 MW	10,979 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	10,576 MW	10,258 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	9,851 MW	9,629 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	9,316 MW	9,221 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	8,968 MW	8,877 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	8,790 MW	8,665 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	8,743 MW	8,630 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	8,926 MW	8,822 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	9,480 MW	9,427 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	10,437 MW	10,312 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	11,016 MW	10,985 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	11,206 MW	11,195 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	11,154 MW	11,151 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	11,065 MW	11,142 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	11,009 MW	11,214 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	11,091 MW	11,437 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	11,297 MW	11,734 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	11,537 MW	11,982 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	11,835 MW	12,227 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	12,171 MW	12,371 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	12,323 MW	12,306 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	12,011 MW	12,069 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	11,740 MW	11,821 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	11,258 MW	11,374 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	10,804 MW	10,784 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	10,201 MW	10,168 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	9,549 MW	9,531 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	9,036 MW	8,883 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	8,718 MW	8,437 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	8,524 MW	8,139 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	8,424 MW	7,988 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	8,459 MW	7,991 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	8,668 MW	8,133 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	9,007 MW	8,467 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	9,438 MW	8,938 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	9,866 MW	9,500 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	10,142 MW	9,884 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	10,223 MW	10,025 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	10,167 MW	10,027 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	10,078 MW	10,000 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	10,042 MW	9,941 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	10,054 MW	9,904 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	10,104 MW	9,947 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	10,188 MW	10,113 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	10,203 MW	10,260 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	10,168 MW	10,457 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	10,211 MW	10,534 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	10,083 MW	10,340 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	9,964 MW	9,915 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	9,615 MW	9,460 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	9,233 MW	9,013 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	9,233 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	8,718 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	8,524 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 02:00	8,424 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 03:00	8,459 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 04:00	8,668 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 05:00	9,007 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 06:00	9,438 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 07:00	9,866 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 08:00	10,142 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 09:00	10,223 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 10:00	10,167 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 11:00	10,078 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 12:00	10,042 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 13:00	10,054 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 14:00	10,104 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 15:00	10,188 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 16:00	10,203 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 17:00	10,168 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 18:00	10,211 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 19:00	10,083 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 20:00	9,964 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 21:00	9,615 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 22:00	9,233 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 23:00	n/a	n/a
2 Nov, 00:00	8,907 MW	8,796 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	8,693 MW	8,565 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	8,603 MW	8,459 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	8,633 MW	8,499 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	8,927 MW	8,815 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	9,615 MW	9,581 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	10,635 MW	10,571 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	11,072 MW	11,188 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	11,281 MW	11,286 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	11,212 MW	11,157 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	11,121 MW	11,001 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	11,045 MW	10,870 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	11,086 MW	10,834 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	11,212 MW	10,882 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	11,314 MW	10,960 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	11,472 MW	11,061 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	11,677 MW	11,332 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	12,003 MW	11,770 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	12,202 MW	12,027 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	11,927 MW	11,975 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	11,516 MW	11,542 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	10,900 MW	10,997 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	10,347 MW	10,379 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	9,742 MW	9,786 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	9,256 MW	9,413 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	9,101 MW	9,157 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	9,003 MW	9,015 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	9,024 MW	9,031 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	9,176 MW	9,306 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	9,962 MW	10,023 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	10,877 MW	10,937 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	11,261 MW	11,458 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	11,329 MW	11,412 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	11,243 MW	11,178 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	11,200 MW	11,042 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	11,237 MW	11,041 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	11,387 MW	11,173 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	11,550 MW	11,379 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	11,589 MW	11,556 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	11,714 MW	11,706 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	11,892 MW	11,928 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	12,199 MW	12,202 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	12,452 MW	12,202 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	12,257 MW	11,948 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	11,818 MW	11,390 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	11,170 MW	10,792 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	10,470 MW	10,132 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	9,837 MW	9,484 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	9,261 MW	9,128 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	8,971 MW	8,764 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	8,825 MW	8,536 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	8,790 MW	8,486 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	8,991 MW	8,696 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	9,650 MW	9,345 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	10,720 MW	10,191 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	11,133 MW	10,725 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	11,255 MW	10,872 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	11,362 MW	10,937 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	11,458 MW	11,050 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	11,654 MW	11,219 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	11,743 MW	11,484 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	11,869 MW	11,821 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	11,888 MW	12,108 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	11,895 MW	12,339 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	12,102 MW	12,629 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	12,498 MW	12,988 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	12,660 MW	13,057 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	12,408 MW	12,804 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	12,094 MW	12,224 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	11,610 MW	11,566 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	10,876 MW	10,802 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	10,171 MW	10,050 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	9,645 MW	9,761 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	9,303 MW	9,364 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	9,076 MW	9,108 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	9,023 MW	9,052 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	9,173 MW	9,253 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	9,742 MW	9,908 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	10,722 MW	10,773 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	11,295 MW	11,358 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	11,568 MW	11,563 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_duk_2026,
  title = {{DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

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DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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