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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FPL was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 696 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,024 MW (9.9%) too high at 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FPL was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 696 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,024 MW (9.9%) too high at 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FPL came 13 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 442 MW, against average demand of 16,937 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

696 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.6%
Bias+0.9%
Hours within 5%87%
Worst miss2,024 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+138 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,024 MW (9.9%) too high at 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 22,482 MW, reported 20,458 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
FPL day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPL over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPL over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:0019,071 MW18,364 MW
29 Oct, 11:0019,750 MW19,047 MW
29 Oct, 12:0020,395 MW19,858 MW
29 Oct, 13:0021,004 MW20,514 MW
29 Oct, 14:0021,620 MW21,094 MW
29 Oct, 15:0021,989 MW21,194 MW
29 Oct, 16:0022,090 MW21,242 MW
29 Oct, 17:0021,141 MW20,858 MW
29 Oct, 18:0019,617 MW20,530 MW
29 Oct, 19:0019,624 MW20,288 MW
29 Oct, 20:0019,575 MW19,466 MW
29 Oct, 21:0018,693 MW18,464 MW
29 Oct, 22:0017,513 MW16,970 MW
29 Oct, 23:0016,095 MW15,532 MW
30 Oct, 00:0014,774 MW14,351 MW
30 Oct, 01:0013,807 MW13,571 MW
30 Oct, 02:0013,120 MW13,039 MW
30 Oct, 03:0012,651 MW12,795 MW
30 Oct, 04:0012,543 MW12,870 MW
30 Oct, 05:0012,997 MW13,503 MW
30 Oct, 06:0014,027 MW14,531 MW
30 Oct, 07:0014,622 MW14,827 MW
30 Oct, 08:0015,457 MW15,836 MW
30 Oct, 09:0017,143 MW17,385 MW
30 Oct, 10:0018,463 MW18,617 MW
30 Oct, 11:0020,113 MW19,363 MW
30 Oct, 12:0021,228 MW20,132 MW
30 Oct, 13:0021,374 MW20,840 MW
30 Oct, 14:0021,662 MW21,373 MW
30 Oct, 15:0021,745 MW21,300 MW
30 Oct, 16:0021,522 MW21,184 MW
30 Oct, 17:0020,628 MW20,513 MW
30 Oct, 18:0019,503 MW19,861 MW
30 Oct, 19:0019,402 MW19,429 MW
30 Oct, 20:0018,658 MW18,778 MW
30 Oct, 21:0018,032 MW17,993 MW
30 Oct, 22:0017,292 MW17,008 MW
30 Oct, 23:0016,336 MW15,858 MW
31 Oct, 00:0015,331 MW14,783 MW
31 Oct, 01:0014,402 MW14,055 MW
31 Oct, 02:0013,732 MW13,536 MW
31 Oct, 03:0013,266 MW13,184 MW
31 Oct, 04:0013,032 MW13,131 MW
31 Oct, 05:0013,070 MW13,349 MW
31 Oct, 06:0013,508 MW13,846 MW
31 Oct, 07:0013,973 MW14,269 MW
31 Oct, 08:0015,408 MW15,842 MW
31 Oct, 09:0017,306 MW17,527 MW
31 Oct, 10:0018,989 MW18,748 MW
31 Oct, 11:0020,067 MW19,587 MW
31 Oct, 12:0020,455 MW20,337 MW
31 Oct, 13:0021,058 MW20,861 MW
31 Oct, 14:0021,354 MW21,116 MW
31 Oct, 15:0021,381 MW20,860 MW
31 Oct, 16:0020,865 MW20,742 MW
31 Oct, 17:0019,802 MW19,972 MW
31 Oct, 18:0018,791 MW19,243 MW
31 Oct, 19:0018,630 MW18,877 MW
31 Oct, 20:0018,056 MW18,227 MW
31 Oct, 21:0017,626 MW17,506 MW
31 Oct, 22:0016,945 MW16,592 MW
31 Oct, 23:0016,060 MW15,558 MW
1 Nov, 00:0015,143 MW14,726 MW
1 Nov, 01:0013,642 MW14,179 MW
1 Nov, 01:0013,380 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:0013,100 MWn/a
1 Nov, 03:0013,003 MWn/a
1 Nov, 04:0012,980 MWn/a
1 Nov, 05:0013,296 MWn/a
1 Nov, 06:0014,216 MWn/a
1 Nov, 07:0015,580 MWn/a
1 Nov, 08:0016,705 MWn/a
1 Nov, 09:0017,436 MWn/a
1 Nov, 10:0017,831 MWn/a
1 Nov, 11:0017,912 MWn/a
1 Nov, 12:0017,388 MWn/a
1 Nov, 13:0017,183 MWn/a
1 Nov, 14:0016,929 MWn/a
1 Nov, 15:0016,727 MWn/a
1 Nov, 16:0016,855 MWn/a
1 Nov, 17:0017,275 MWn/a
1 Nov, 18:0016,872 MWn/a
1 Nov, 19:0016,365 MWn/a
1 Nov, 20:0015,704 MWn/a
1 Nov, 21:0014,832 MWn/a
1 Nov, 22:0013,810 MWn/a
1 Nov, 23:0013,810 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:0012,919 MW13,249 MW
2 Nov, 01:0012,372 MW12,482 MW
2 Nov, 02:0012,025 MW11,972 MW
2 Nov, 03:0011,816 MW11,939 MW
2 Nov, 04:0011,952 MW12,270 MW
2 Nov, 05:0012,496 MW13,176 MW
2 Nov, 06:0013,603 MW14,030 MW
2 Nov, 07:0014,626 MW14,503 MW
2 Nov, 08:0015,801 MW15,702 MW
2 Nov, 09:0016,988 MW16,915 MW
2 Nov, 10:0017,779 MW17,659 MW
2 Nov, 11:0018,073 MW17,995 MW
2 Nov, 12:0018,506 MW18,569 MW
2 Nov, 13:0018,382 MW18,966 MW
2 Nov, 14:0018,471 MW19,020 MW
2 Nov, 15:0018,098 MW19,185 MW
2 Nov, 16:0017,779 MW19,001 MW
2 Nov, 17:0017,572 MW18,500 MW
2 Nov, 18:0017,215 MW18,047 MW
2 Nov, 19:0016,634 MW18,096 MW
2 Nov, 20:0015,771 MW17,496 MW
2 Nov, 21:0015,211 MW16,848 MW
2 Nov, 22:0014,536 MW15,745 MW
2 Nov, 23:0013,745 MW14,477 MW
3 Nov, 00:0013,018 MW13,328 MW
3 Nov, 01:0012,418 MW12,569 MW
3 Nov, 02:0012,063 MW11,982 MW
3 Nov, 03:0011,881 MW12,079 MW
3 Nov, 04:0012,034 MW12,383 MW
3 Nov, 05:0012,536 MW13,287 MW
3 Nov, 06:0013,583 MW14,253 MW
3 Nov, 07:0014,513 MW14,708 MW
3 Nov, 08:0015,782 MW16,605 MW
3 Nov, 09:0017,356 MW17,872 MW
3 Nov, 10:0018,536 MW18,968 MW
3 Nov, 11:0019,521 MW19,625 MW
3 Nov, 12:0020,256 MW20,101 MW
3 Nov, 13:0020,609 MW20,378 MW
3 Nov, 14:0020,804 MW20,111 MW
3 Nov, 15:0020,385 MW20,003 MW
3 Nov, 16:0019,498 MW19,932 MW
3 Nov, 17:0018,716 MW19,619 MW
3 Nov, 18:0018,937 MW19,270 MW
3 Nov, 19:0018,657 MW18,963 MW
3 Nov, 20:0017,680 MW18,148 MW
3 Nov, 21:0017,155 MW17,353 MW
3 Nov, 22:0016,290 MW16,237 MW
3 Nov, 23:0015,143 MW14,985 MW
4 Nov, 00:0013,929 MW14,084 MW
4 Nov, 01:0013,106 MW13,097 MW
4 Nov, 02:0012,622 MW12,630 MW
4 Nov, 03:0012,559 MW12,562 MW
4 Nov, 04:0012,629 MW12,704 MW
4 Nov, 05:0013,017 MW13,516 MW
4 Nov, 06:0014,026 MW14,396 MW
4 Nov, 07:0014,991 MW15,134 MW
4 Nov, 08:0016,606 MW16,568 MW
4 Nov, 09:0018,076 MW17,922 MW
4 Nov, 10:0019,200 MW18,951 MW
4 Nov, 11:0020,137 MW19,756 MW
4 Nov, 12:0019,854 MW20,548 MW
4 Nov, 13:0020,213 MW20,917 MW
4 Nov, 14:0020,707 MW20,809 MW
4 Nov, 15:0020,654 MW20,496 MW
4 Nov, 16:0019,699 MW20,392 MW
4 Nov, 17:0018,576 MW20,201 MW
4 Nov, 18:0018,499 MW19,746 MW
4 Nov, 19:0018,343 MW19,150 MW
4 Nov, 20:0017,813 MW18,408 MW
4 Nov, 21:0017,171 MW17,425 MW
4 Nov, 22:0016,227 MW16,213 MW
4 Nov, 23:0014,930 MW14,841 MW
5 Nov, 00:0014,185 MW13,752 MW
5 Nov, 01:0013,098 MW12,914 MW
5 Nov, 02:0012,305 MW12,345 MW
5 Nov, 03:0012,089 MW12,083 MW
5 Nov, 04:0011,962 MW12,206 MW
5 Nov, 05:0012,393 MW12,904 MW
5 Nov, 06:0013,322 MW13,769 MW
5 Nov, 07:0014,298 MW14,558 MW
5 Nov, 08:0016,217 MW16,061 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (696 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fpl_2026,
  title = {{FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/}
}

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