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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TVA was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TVA was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TVA came 8 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 359 MW, against average demand of 16,940 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 60% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.0%
Bias+0.9%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss26,747 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+120 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 17,630 MW, reported 44,377 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
TVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 29 Oct, 09:0030 Oct, 09:0031 Oct, 09:001 Nov, 08:002 Nov, 08:003 Nov, 08:004 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 09:0017,256 MW17,347 MW
29 Oct, 10:0017,236 MW17,284 MW
29 Oct, 11:0017,499 MW17,437 MW
29 Oct, 12:0017,540 MW17,597 MW
29 Oct, 13:0017,586 MW17,705 MW
29 Oct, 14:0017,795 MW17,919 MW
29 Oct, 15:0018,141 MW18,213 MW
29 Oct, 16:0018,280 MW18,279 MW
29 Oct, 17:0018,101 MW18,261 MW
29 Oct, 18:0018,195 MW18,383 MW
29 Oct, 19:0018,177 MW18,202 MW
29 Oct, 20:0017,691 MW17,652 MW
29 Oct, 21:0016,837 MW16,837 MW
29 Oct, 22:0015,809 MW15,876 MW
29 Oct, 23:0014,977 MW14,989 MW
30 Oct, 00:0014,343 MW14,397 MW
30 Oct, 01:0013,925 MW14,068 MW
30 Oct, 02:0013,788 MW13,867 MW
30 Oct, 03:0013,892 MW13,951 MW
30 Oct, 04:0014,449 MW14,380 MW
30 Oct, 05:0015,508 MW15,309 MW
30 Oct, 06:0016,727 MW16,336 MW
30 Oct, 07:0017,077 MW16,715 MW
30 Oct, 08:0017,097 MW16,928 MW
30 Oct, 09:0017,059 MW16,987 MW
30 Oct, 10:0017,103 MW17,204 MW
30 Oct, 11:0017,162 MW17,509 MW
30 Oct, 12:0017,629 MW17,821 MW
30 Oct, 13:0017,722 MW17,932 MW
30 Oct, 14:0017,947 MW18,179 MW
30 Oct, 15:0018,156 MW18,442 MW
30 Oct, 16:0018,162 MW18,542 MW
30 Oct, 17:0017,736 MW18,321 MW
30 Oct, 18:0017,736 MW18,174 MW
30 Oct, 19:0017,487 MW17,774 MW
30 Oct, 20:0017,042 MW17,283 MW
30 Oct, 21:0016,346 MW16,468 MW
30 Oct, 22:0015,579 MW15,718 MW
30 Oct, 23:0014,831 MW14,819 MW
31 Oct, 00:0014,216 MW14,132 MW
31 Oct, 01:0013,719 MW13,667 MW
31 Oct, 02:0013,472 MW13,334 MW
31 Oct, 03:0013,307 MW13,255 MW
31 Oct, 04:0013,463 MW13,370 MW
31 Oct, 05:0013,820 MW13,636 MW
31 Oct, 06:0014,275 MW14,137 MW
31 Oct, 07:0014,692 MW14,788 MW
31 Oct, 08:0015,364 MW15,480 MW
31 Oct, 09:0015,842 MW15,990 MW
31 Oct, 10:0016,165 MW16,318 MW
31 Oct, 11:0016,444 MW16,680 MW
31 Oct, 12:0016,643 MW16,921 MW
31 Oct, 13:0016,835 MW17,064 MW
31 Oct, 14:0016,942 MW17,219 MW
31 Oct, 15:0017,004 MW17,498 MW
31 Oct, 16:0016,872 MW17,633 MW
31 Oct, 17:0016,587 MW17,521 MW
31 Oct, 18:0016,472 MW17,593 MW
31 Oct, 19:0016,209 MW17,254 MW
31 Oct, 20:0016,026 MW16,790 MW
31 Oct, 21:0015,577 MW16,132 MW
31 Oct, 22:0014,979 MW15,394 MW
31 Oct, 23:0014,286 MW14,559 MW
1 Nov, 00:0013,698 MW13,716 MW
1 Nov, 01:0013,329 MW13,264 MW
1 Nov, 01:0012,982 MW13,264 MW
1 Nov, 02:0012,958 MW12,892 MW
1 Nov, 03:0012,971 MW12,813 MW
1 Nov, 04:0013,079 MW12,899 MW
1 Nov, 05:0013,372 MW13,166 MW
1 Nov, 06:0013,894 MW13,596 MW
1 Nov, 07:0014,663 MW14,321 MW
1 Nov, 08:0015,424 MW14,969 MW
1 Nov, 09:0015,674 MW15,328 MW
1 Nov, 10:0016,033 MW15,428 MW
1 Nov, 11:0015,968 MW15,529 MW
1 Nov, 12:0016,115 MW15,735 MW
1 Nov, 13:0016,180 MW15,895 MW
1 Nov, 14:0016,184 MW16,047 MW
1 Nov, 15:0016,373 MW16,260 MW
1 Nov, 16:0016,832 MW16,609 MW
1 Nov, 17:0017,328 MW17,135 MW
1 Nov, 18:0017,137 MW16,946 MW
1 Nov, 19:0016,803 MW16,608 MW
1 Nov, 20:0016,351 MW15,969 MW
1 Nov, 21:0015,636 MW15,366 MW
1 Nov, 22:0014,837 MW14,814 MW
1 Nov, 23:0014,197 MW14,115 MW
2 Nov, 00:0013,878 MW13,732 MW
2 Nov, 01:0013,669 MW13,517 MW
2 Nov, 02:0013,610 MW13,393 MW
2 Nov, 03:0013,617 MW13,526 MW
2 Nov, 04:0013,892 MW14,039 MW
2 Nov, 05:0015,108 MW15,199 MW
2 Nov, 06:0016,103 MW16,339 MW
2 Nov, 07:0016,569 MW16,739 MW
2 Nov, 08:0016,752 MW16,848 MW
2 Nov, 09:0016,888 MW17,054 MW
2 Nov, 10:0017,439 MW17,194 MW
2 Nov, 11:0017,787 MW17,344 MW
2 Nov, 12:0017,999 MW17,403 MW
2 Nov, 13:0018,207 MW17,594 MW
2 Nov, 14:0018,265 MW17,773 MW
2 Nov, 15:0018,561 MW17,949 MW
2 Nov, 16:0018,635 MW18,205 MW
2 Nov, 17:0019,075 MW18,586 MW
2 Nov, 18:0018,814 MW18,379 MW
2 Nov, 19:0018,124 MW17,988 MW
2 Nov, 20:0017,497 MW17,226 MW
2 Nov, 21:0016,599 MW16,507 MW
2 Nov, 22:0015,749 MW15,708 MW
2 Nov, 23:0015,749 MW14,881 MW
3 Nov, 00:0014,246 MWn/a
3 Nov, 01:0013,932 MWn/a
3 Nov, 02:0013,791 MWn/a
3 Nov, 03:0013,683 MWn/a
3 Nov, 04:0013,765 MWn/a
3 Nov, 05:0014,763 MWn/a
3 Nov, 06:0015,821 MWn/a
3 Nov, 07:0016,192 MWn/a
3 Nov, 08:0016,466 MWn/a
3 Nov, 09:0016,845 MWn/a
3 Nov, 10:0017,646 MWn/a
3 Nov, 11:0018,214 MWn/a
3 Nov, 12:0018,462 MWn/a
3 Nov, 13:0018,469 MWn/a
3 Nov, 14:0018,563 MWn/a
3 Nov, 15:0018,406 MWn/a
3 Nov, 16:0018,571 MWn/a
3 Nov, 17:0018,982 MWn/a
3 Nov, 18:0018,837 MWn/a
3 Nov, 19:0018,467 MWn/a
3 Nov, 20:0017,962 MWn/a
3 Nov, 21:0017,154 MWn/a
3 Nov, 22:0016,272 MWn/a
3 Nov, 23:0015,421 MWn/a
4 Nov, 00:0014,704 MW14,863 MW
4 Nov, 01:0014,348 MW14,503 MW
4 Nov, 02:0014,079 MW14,288 MW
4 Nov, 03:0014,028 MW14,134 MW
4 Nov, 04:0014,090 MW14,263 MW
4 Nov, 05:0015,110 MW15,233 MW
4 Nov, 06:0016,116 MW16,177 MW
4 Nov, 07:0016,531 MW16,562 MW
4 Nov, 08:0016,837 MW16,824 MW
4 Nov, 09:0017,089 MW17,095 MW
4 Nov, 10:0017,528 MW17,614 MW
4 Nov, 11:0017,773 MW17,833 MW
4 Nov, 12:0017,720 MW17,870 MW
4 Nov, 13:0017,831 MW17,914 MW
4 Nov, 14:0017,833 MW17,863 MW
4 Nov, 15:0017,967 MW18,018 MW
4 Nov, 16:0018,204 MW18,154 MW
4 Nov, 17:0018,414 MW18,624 MW
4 Nov, 18:0017,840 MW18,356 MW
4 Nov, 19:0017,455 MW17,791 MW
4 Nov, 20:0016,980 MW17,223 MW
4 Nov, 21:0016,144 MW16,453 MW
4 Nov, 22:0015,122 MW15,639 MW
4 Nov, 23:0014,235 MW14,944 MW
5 Nov, 00:0013,739 MW14,272 MW
5 Nov, 01:0013,548 MW14,031 MW
5 Nov, 02:0013,399 MW13,898 MW
5 Nov, 03:0013,309 MW13,910 MW
5 Nov, 04:0013,479 MW14,080 MW
5 Nov, 05:0014,549 MW15,187 MW
5 Nov, 06:0014,894 MW16,342 MW
5 Nov, 07:0014,894 MW16,683 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tva_2026,
  title = {{TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/}
}

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