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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PGE was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 278 MW (9.6%) too low at 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PGE was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 278 MW (9.6%) too low at 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PGE came 2 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 37 MW, against average demand of 2,594 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 71% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.4%
Bias+0.7%
Hours within 5%97%
Worst miss278 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+17 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 278 MW (9.6%) too low at 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 2,631 MW, reported 2,909 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
PGE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PGE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PGE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:002,942 MW2,999 MW
29 Oct, 08:002,977 MW3,013 MW
29 Oct, 09:002,972 MW2,964 MW
29 Oct, 10:002,946 MW2,893 MW
29 Oct, 11:002,875 MW2,838 MW
29 Oct, 12:002,820 MW2,808 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,803 MW2,796 MW
29 Oct, 14:002,827 MW2,760 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,813 MW2,768 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,884 MW2,829 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,935 MW2,938 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,990 MW3,010 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,965 MW2,994 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,898 MW2,919 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,801 MW2,842 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,663 MW2,701 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,497 MW2,553 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,385 MW2,414 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,310 MW2,326 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,267 MW2,282 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,260 MW2,281 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,304 MW2,348 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,455 MW2,490 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,687 MW2,732 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,866 MW2,926 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,939 MW2,989 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,952 MW2,989 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,904 MW2,978 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,817 MW2,938 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,766 MW2,862 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,744 MW2,815 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,690 MW2,785 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,716 MW2,814 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,756 MW2,886 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,836 MW2,955 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,902 MW2,982 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,877 MW2,920 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,828 MW2,844 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,773 MW2,780 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,668 MW2,685 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,548 MW2,555 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,447 MW2,457 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,380 MW2,377 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,356 MW2,322 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,338 MW2,300 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,382 MW2,341 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,464 MW2,435 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,597 MW2,557 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,747 MW2,714 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,864 MW2,814 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,896 MW2,845 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,854 MW2,802 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,801 MW2,774 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,692 MW2,733 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,630 MW2,742 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,573 MW2,727 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,575 MW2,753 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,664 MW2,773 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,726 MW2,829 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,748 MW2,860 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,700 MW2,829 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,681 MW2,763 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,648 MW2,691 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,571 MW2,577 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,464 MW2,449 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,393 MW2,329 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,340 MW2,312 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,310 MW2,312 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,305 MW2,287 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,312 MW2,294 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,343 MW2,340 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,428 MW2,443 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,540 MW2,584 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,688 MW2,693 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,802 MW2,746 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,864 MW2,718 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,894 MW2,677 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,900 MW2,647 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,909 MW2,631 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,917 MW2,658 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,920 MW2,715 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,945 MW2,830 MW
1 Nov, 16:003,030 MW3,018 MW
1 Nov, 17:003,130 MW3,198 MW
1 Nov, 18:003,079 MW3,198 MW
1 Nov, 19:003,016 MW3,147 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,918 MW3,043 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,793 MW2,922 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,618 MW2,750 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,472 MW2,606 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,369 MW2,397 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,317 MW2,348 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,300 MW2,334 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,323 MW2,374 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,429 MW2,491 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,628 MW2,652 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,904 MW2,929 MW
2 Nov, 07:003,091 MW3,079 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,063 MW3,107 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,003 MW3,080 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,899 MW3,036 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,827 MW2,991 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,822 MW2,971 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,875 MW2,967 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,877 MW2,956 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,908 MW3,002 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,027 MW3,091 MW
2 Nov, 17:003,160 MW3,203 MW
2 Nov, 18:003,124 MW3,166 MW
2 Nov, 19:003,051 MW3,104 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,964 MW2,988 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,846 MW2,885 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,677 MW2,698 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,497 MW2,563 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,394 MW2,387 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,325 MW2,345 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,290 MW2,299 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,293 MW2,298 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,370 MW2,369 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,554 MW2,554 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,818 MW2,818 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,978 MW2,978 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,981 MW2,981 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,951 MW2,934 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,885 MW2,871 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,775 MW2,827 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,739 MW2,818 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,712 MW2,797 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,731 MW2,790 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,800 MW2,827 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,928 MW2,929 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,063 MW3,071 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,035 MW3,051 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,964 MW3,010 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,883 MW2,917 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,786 MW2,828 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,631 MW2,673 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,471 MW2,532 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,369 MW2,418 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,316 MW2,338 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,287 MW2,288 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,300 MW2,310 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,403 MW2,410 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,595 MW2,605 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,888 MW2,891 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,039 MW3,030 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,982 MW3,004 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,852 MW2,901 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,761 MW2,830 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,708 MW2,794 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,725 MW2,787 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,763 MW2,793 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,809 MW2,824 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,876 MW2,868 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,969 MW2,981 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,063 MW3,075 MW
4 Nov, 18:003,037 MW3,034 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,968 MW2,962 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,888 MW2,857 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,781 MW2,762 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,617 MW2,590 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,457 MW2,456 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,340 MW2,306 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,271 MW2,279 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,240 MW2,233 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,229 MW2,234 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,302 MW2,308 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,478 MW2,489 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pge_2026,
  title = {{PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/}
}

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