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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SWPW was off by 10.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 712 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 60% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +9.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,036 MW (32.2%) too high at 7 Oct 2026, 19:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SWPW was off by 10.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 712 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 60% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +9.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,036 MW (32.2%) too high at 7 Oct 2026, 19:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SWPW came 44 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 283 MW, against average demand of 2,681 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 76% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

712 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error10.7%
Bias+9.6%
Hours within 5%60%
Worst miss1,036 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+255 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,036 MW (32.2%) too high at 7 Oct 2026, 19:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 4,254 MW, reported 3,218 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
SWPW day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SWPW over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 09:0030 Oct, 09:0031 Oct, 09:001 Nov, 08:002 Nov, 08:003 Nov, 08:004 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SWPW over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 09:002,772 MW3,459 MW
29 Oct, 10:002,690 MW3,415 MW
29 Oct, 11:002,627 MW3,390 MW
29 Oct, 12:002,583 MW3,382 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,550 MW3,357 MW
29 Oct, 14:002,572 MW3,451 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,571 MW3,421 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,577 MW3,427 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,634 MW3,439 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,698 MW3,524 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,804 MW3,635 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,799 MW3,507 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,750 MW3,494 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,698 MW3,395 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,592 MW3,245 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,478 MW3,167 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,409 MW3,096 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,352 MW3,052 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,326 MW3,032 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,311 MW3,009 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,350 MW3,059 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,460 MW3,161 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,634 MW3,379 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,764 MW3,477 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,793 MW3,448 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,737 MW3,409 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,679 MW3,372 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,613 MW3,347 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,581 MW3,316 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,578 MW3,300 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,588 MW3,313 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,623 MW3,325 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,682 MW3,362 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,720 MW3,452 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,799 MW3,550 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,775 MW3,546 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,725 MW3,534 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,679 MW3,478 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,593 MW3,330 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,497 MW3,163 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,424 MW3,077 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,375 MW3,024 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,344 MW3,001 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,324 MW3,006 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,335 MW3,030 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,372 MW3,072 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,452 MW3,191 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,542 MW3,278 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,616 MW3,281 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,660 MW3,274 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,655 MW3,229 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,587 MW3,175 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,528 MW3,158 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,508 MW3,205 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,519 MW3,208 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,569 MW3,174 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,634 MW3,255 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,659 MW3,360 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,678 MW3,477 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,637 MW3,497 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,609 MW3,472 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,585 MW3,384 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,518 MW3,271 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,447 MW2,505 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,377 MW2,418 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,331 MW1,709 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,301 MW2,361 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,290 MW2,332 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,291 MW2,326 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,306 MW2,345 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,361 MW2,376 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,446 MW2,438 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,551 MW2,533 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,664 MW2,572 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,718 MW2,552 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,740 MW2,534 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,730 MW2,521 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,745 MW2,525 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,744 MW2,554 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,787 MW2,569 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,829 MW2,626 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,886 MW2,717 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,969 MW2,810 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,951 MW2,883 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,869 MW2,858 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,773 MW2,800 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,650 MW2,721 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,535 MW2,594 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,452 MW3,095 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,400 MW3,021 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,372 MW2,993 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,359 MW2,978 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,360 MW2,975 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,424 MW3,010 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,552 MW3,134 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,714 MW3,335 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,798 MW3,428 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,847 MW3,452 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,854 MW3,425 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,835 MW3,409 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,917 MW3,394 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,953 MW3,385 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,882 MW3,381 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,887 MW3,388 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,904 MW3,374 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,967 MW3,447 MW
2 Nov, 18:003,131 MW3,531 MW
2 Nov, 19:003,131 MW3,586 MW
2 Nov, 20:003,043 MW3,568 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,964 MW3,512 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,905 MW3,463 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,785 MW3,348 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,676 MW2,584 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,594 MW2,505 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,528 MW2,464 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,499 MW2,444 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,530 MW2,439 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,512 MW2,477 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,581 MW2,590 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,729 MW2,759 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,760 MW2,860 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,696 MW2,845 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,642 MW2,787 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,546 MW2,745 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,476 MW2,698 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,588 MW2,664 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,619 MW2,659 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,650 MW2,675 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,721 MW2,712 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,841 MW2,797 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,989 MW2,891 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,996 MW2,950 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,951 MW2,915 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,897 MW2,878 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,826 MW2,834 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,727 MW2,720 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,632 MW2,702 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,575 MW2,607 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,536 MW2,566 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,510 MW2,545 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,518 MW2,538 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,564 MW2,599 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,686 MW2,699 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,861 MW2,858 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,908 MW2,954 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,853 MW2,994 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,748 MW2,916 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,673 MW2,855 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,598 MW2,857 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,591 MW2,828 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,633 MW2,765 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,674 MW2,805 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,758 MW2,856 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,850 MW2,907 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,977 MW3,017 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,971 MW3,058 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,940 MW3,006 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,909 MW2,949 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,842 MW2,915 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,729 MW2,798 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,625 MW3,297 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,570 MW3,208 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,552 MW3,148 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,549 MW3,108 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,570 MW3,157 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,620 MW3,177 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,745 MW3,237 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,919 MW3,401 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (712 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp-west/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp-west/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_spp_west_2026,
  title = {{SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp-west/}
}

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