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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PSEI was off by 49.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -49.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,246 MW (71.2%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PSEI was off by 49.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -49.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,246 MW (71.2%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PSEI came 52 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,353 MW, against average demand of 2,725 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error49.7%
Bias-49.7%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss2,246 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,353 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 2,246 MW (71.2%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 909 MW, reported 3,155 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
PSEI day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSEI over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSEI over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:003,283 MW1,623 MW
29 Oct, 08:003,327 MW1,657 MW
29 Oct, 09:003,298 MW1,779 MW
29 Oct, 10:003,235 MW1,804 MW
29 Oct, 11:003,164 MW1,787 MW
29 Oct, 12:003,080 MW1,672 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,990 MW1,556 MW
29 Oct, 14:002,929 MW1,489 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,945 MW1,505 MW
29 Oct, 16:003,042 MW1,537 MW
29 Oct, 17:003,198 MW1,624 MW
29 Oct, 18:003,308 MW1,716 MW
29 Oct, 19:003,282 MW1,761 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,207 MW1,795 MW
29 Oct, 21:003,052 MW1,587 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,821 MW1,508 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,620 MW1,231 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,486 MW1,160 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,388 MW1,158 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,329 MW1,196 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,339 MW1,231 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,443 MW1,180 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,674 MW1,455 MW
30 Oct, 06:003,000 MW1,526 MW
30 Oct, 07:003,240 MW1,696 MW
30 Oct, 08:003,299 MW1,592 MW
30 Oct, 09:003,315 MW1,779 MW
30 Oct, 10:003,306 MW1,680 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,311 MW1,862 MW
30 Oct, 12:003,312 MW1,698 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,276 MW1,497 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,226 MW1,366 MW
30 Oct, 15:003,189 MW1,756 MW
30 Oct, 16:003,184 MW1,858 MW
30 Oct, 17:003,282 MW1,830 MW
30 Oct, 18:003,328 MW1,849 MW
30 Oct, 19:003,262 MW1,878 MW
30 Oct, 20:003,196 MW1,801 MW
30 Oct, 21:003,070 MW1,852 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,909 MW1,701 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,757 MW1,410 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,629 MW1,414 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,551 MW1,458 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,504 MW1,421 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,503 MW1,443 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,555 MW1,478 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,690 MW1,522 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,882 MW1,583 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,091 MW1,600 MW
31 Oct, 08:003,263 MW1,641 MW
31 Oct, 09:003,322 MW1,598 MW
31 Oct, 10:003,264 MW1,687 MW
31 Oct, 11:003,167 MW1,566 MW
31 Oct, 12:003,037 MW1,618 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,953 MW1,524 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,889 MW1,491 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,864 MW1,634 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,921 MW1,632 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,988 MW1,735 MW
31 Oct, 18:003,036 MW1,722 MW
31 Oct, 19:003,005 MW1,646 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,992 MW1,769 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,940 MW1,730 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,834 MW1,782 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,692 MW1,633 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,583 MW1,445 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,485 MW1,434 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,434 MW1,458 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,396 MW1,385 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,398 MW1,368 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,453 MW1,466 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,567 MW622 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,747 MW1,537 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,943 MW1,657 MW
1 Nov, 08:003,074 MW1,607 MW
1 Nov, 09:003,127 MW1,573 MW
1 Nov, 10:003,115 MW1,631 MW
1 Nov, 11:003,083 MW1,758 MW
1 Nov, 12:003,055 MW1,575 MW
1 Nov, 13:003,018 MW1,509 MW
1 Nov, 14:003,000 MW1,475 MW
1 Nov, 15:003,043 MW1,565 MW
1 Nov, 16:003,179 MW1,582 MW
1 Nov, 17:003,422 MW1,777 MW
1 Nov, 18:003,429 MW1,852 MW
1 Nov, 19:003,402 MW1,917 MW
1 Nov, 20:003,316 MW1,951 MW
1 Nov, 21:003,150 MW1,952 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,930 MW1,848 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,763 MW1,884 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,666 MW1,696 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,609 MW1,763 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,585 MW1,746 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,638 MW1,708 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,796 MW1,841 MW
2 Nov, 05:003,086 MW2,019 MW
2 Nov, 06:003,449 MW2,211 MW
2 Nov, 07:003,662 MW2,232 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,659 MW2,251 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,593 MW2,186 MW
2 Nov, 10:003,482 MW2,342 MW
2 Nov, 11:003,343 MW2,181 MW
2 Nov, 12:003,262 MW1,978 MW
2 Nov, 13:003,195 MW1,884 MW
2 Nov, 14:003,163 MW1,744 MW
2 Nov, 15:003,219 MW1,812 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,394 MW2,040 MW
2 Nov, 17:003,577 MW2,166 MW
2 Nov, 18:003,541 MW2,090 MW
2 Nov, 19:003,458 MW2,110 MW
2 Nov, 20:003,341 MW2,105 MW
2 Nov, 21:003,153 MW2,014 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,907 MW1,851 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,706 MW1,792 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,566 MW1,856 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,466 MW1,827 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,425 MW1,611 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,435 MW1,630 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,561 MW1,733 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,824 MW1,804 MW
3 Nov, 06:003,174 MW2,031 MW
3 Nov, 07:003,351 MW2,102 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,365 MW1,948 MW
3 Nov, 09:003,272 MW1,951 MW
3 Nov, 10:003,121 MW1,894 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,996 MW1,997 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,950 MW1,831 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,900 MW1,818 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,900 MW1,907 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,928 MW1,860 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,081 MW1,979 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,323 MW2,027 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,335 MW1,976 MW
3 Nov, 19:003,302 MW1,944 MW
3 Nov, 20:003,222 MW1,739 MW
3 Nov, 21:003,086 MW1,766 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,865 MW1,783 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,693 MW1,614 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,569 MW1,487 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,509 MW1,533 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,472 MW1,601 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,524 MW1,431 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,668 MW1,579 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,951 MW1,568 MW
4 Nov, 06:003,332 MW1,661 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,534 MW1,715 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,494 MW1,706 MW
4 Nov, 09:003,337 MW1,699 MW
4 Nov, 10:003,209 MW1,582 MW
4 Nov, 11:003,137 MW1,522 MW
4 Nov, 12:003,099 MW1,513 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,029 MW1,508 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,000 MW1,511 MW
4 Nov, 15:003,042 MW1,513 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,198 MW1,746 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,369 MW1,822 MW
4 Nov, 18:003,343 MW1,860 MW
4 Nov, 19:003,273 MW1,894 MW
4 Nov, 20:003,152 MW1,903 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,967 MW1,872 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,722 MW1,768 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,524 MW1,556 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,392 MW1,358 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,290 MW1,201 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,247 MW1,166 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,257 MW1,275 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,363 MW1,382 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,606 MW1,399 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psei/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psei/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_psei_2026,
  title = {{PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psei/}
}

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