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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 718 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEC came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 80 MW, against average demand of 2,441 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

718 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.1%
Bias-0.4%
Hours within 5%81%
Worst miss661 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-16 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 1,938 MW, reported 2,599 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
TEC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:002,434 MW2,500 MW
29 Oct, 11:002,618 MW2,650 MW
29 Oct, 12:002,789 MW2,808 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,940 MW2,934 MW
29 Oct, 14:003,103 MW3,045 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,263 MW3,138 MW
29 Oct, 16:003,368 MW3,181 MW
29 Oct, 17:003,353 MW3,160 MW
29 Oct, 18:003,236 MW3,096 MW
29 Oct, 19:003,175 MW3,027 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,021 MW2,855 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,827 MW2,661 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,582 MW2,420 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,350 MW2,277 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,172 MW2,244 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,048 MW1,950 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,952 MW1,868 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,898 MW1,825 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,897 MW1,861 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,991 MW1,979 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,139 MW2,116 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,220 MW2,146 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,254 MW2,258 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,356 MW2,394 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,502 MW2,545 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,656 MW2,691 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,843 MW2,851 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,007 MW2,996 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,192 MW3,126 MW
30 Oct, 15:003,295 MW3,222 MW
30 Oct, 16:003,311 MW3,250 MW
30 Oct, 17:003,251 MW3,179 MW
30 Oct, 18:003,125 MW3,062 MW
30 Oct, 19:003,052 MW2,978 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,914 MW2,824 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,778 MW2,665 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,622 MW2,470 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,454 MW2,230 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,281 MW2,352 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,146 MW2,086 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,043 MW1,994 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,960 MW1,930 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,908 MW1,916 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,906 MW1,937 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,950 MW1,978 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,011 MW2,048 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,110 MW2,219 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,275 MW2,407 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,460 MW2,560 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,644 MW2,698 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,776 MW2,810 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,879 MW2,900 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,953 MW2,996 MW
31 Oct, 15:003,031 MW3,017 MW
31 Oct, 16:003,038 MW3,021 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,937 MW2,949 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,794 MW2,872 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,680 MW2,807 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,582 MW2,664 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,507 MW2,532 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,390 MW2,369 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,260 MW1,990 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,120 MW2,182 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,996 MW2,030 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,921 MW1,878 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,862 MW1,833 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,832 MW1,822 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,819 MW1,846 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,834 MW1,893 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,864 MW1,972 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,971 MW2,158 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,192 MW2,332 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,369 MW2,487 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,475 MW2,592 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,542 MW2,692 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,563 MW2,688 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,533 MW2,684 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,506 MW2,653 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,496 MW2,601 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,508 MW2,566 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,552 MW2,536 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,602 MW2,455 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,533 MW2,338 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,440 MW2,258 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,309 MW2,177 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,148 MW2,014 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,985 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:001,847 MW1,894 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,763 MW1,697 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,724 MW1,672 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,723 MW1,676 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,772 MW1,718 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,881 MW1,843 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,052 MW1,947 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,131 MW2,074 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,186 MW2,178 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,226 MW2,206 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,265 MW2,294 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,306 MW2,353 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,355 MW2,453 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,418 MW2,459 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,435 MW2,508 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,471 MW2,544 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,513 MW2,610 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,618 MW2,696 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,707 MW2,689 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,671 MW2,584 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,567 MW2,467 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,426 MW2,303 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,234 MW2,114 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,060 MW2,017 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,911 MW1,973 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,807 MW1,770 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,741 MW1,754 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,704 MW1,763 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,750 MW1,837 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,880 MW1,966 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,090 MW2,136 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,170 MW2,181 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,265 MW2,282 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,410 MW2,378 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,557 MW2,474 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,669 MW2,613 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,810 MW2,726 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,941 MW2,795 MW
3 Nov, 14:003,068 MW2,846 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,135 MW2,859 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,114 MW2,878 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,099 MW2,948 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,098 MW2,918 MW
3 Nov, 19:003,004 MW2,792 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,886 MW2,649 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,739 MW2,449 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,532 MW2,235 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,324 MW2,075 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,148 MW2,220 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,019 MW1,962 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,927 MW1,896 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,877 MW1,876 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,891 MW1,914 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,006 MW2,064 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,193 MW2,213 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,269 MW2,267 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,399 MW2,418 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,667 MW2,572 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,887 MW2,763 MW
4 Nov, 11:003,029 MW2,923 MW
4 Nov, 12:003,118 MW3,087 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,171 MW3,183 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,249 MW3,223 MW
4 Nov, 15:003,363 MW3,241 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,399 MW3,176 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,332 MW3,138 MW
4 Nov, 18:003,265 MW3,062 MW
4 Nov, 19:003,133 MW2,964 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,993 MW2,811 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,819 MW2,635 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,600 MW2,409 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,387 MW2,197 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,208 MW2,289 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,052 MW2,023 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,933 MW1,942 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,855 MW1,904 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,847 MW1,927 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,945 MW2,056 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,117 MW2,176 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,215 MW2,232 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,332 MW2,371 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (718 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tec_2026,
  title = {{TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/}
}

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