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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 22 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 622 hours from 22 August to 20 September 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 544 MW (16.4%) too high at 8 Sept 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 622 hours from 22 August to 20 September 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 544 MW (16.4%) too high at 8 Sept 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEC came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 103 MW, against average demand of 3,000 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

622 hours from 22 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.3%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%78%
Worst miss544 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-15 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 544 MW (16.4%) too high at 8 Sept 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 3,871 MW, reported 3,327 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 21:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
TEC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 21:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 13 Sept, 22:0014 Sept, 22:0015 Sept, 22:0016 Sept, 22:0017 Sept, 22:0018 Sept, 22:0019 Sept, 22:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 21:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
TEC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 22:002,988 MW2,802 MW
13 Sept, 23:002,755 MW2,688 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,575 MW2,655 MW
14 Sept, 01:002,437 MW2,353 MW
14 Sept, 02:002,334 MW2,267 MW
14 Sept, 03:002,272 MW2,225 MW
14 Sept, 04:002,289 MW2,256 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,353 MW2,358 MW
14 Sept, 06:002,472 MW2,463 MW
14 Sept, 07:002,514 MW2,496 MW
14 Sept, 08:002,633 MW2,693 MW
14 Sept, 09:002,860 MW2,956 MW
14 Sept, 10:003,123 MW3,248 MW
14 Sept, 11:003,389 MW3,515 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,635 MW3,729 MW
14 Sept, 13:003,864 MW3,853 MW
14 Sept, 14:004,027 MW3,954 MW
14 Sept, 15:003,988 MW4,010 MW
14 Sept, 16:003,845 MW3,995 MW
14 Sept, 17:003,759 MW3,895 MW
14 Sept, 18:003,611 MW3,717 MW
14 Sept, 19:003,552 MW3,622 MW
14 Sept, 20:003,491 MW3,439 MW
14 Sept, 21:003,306 MW3,203 MW
14 Sept, 22:003,057 MW2,930 MW
14 Sept, 23:002,811 MW2,678 MW
15 Sept, 00:002,611 MW2,687 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,467 MW2,379 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,367 MW2,288 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,317 MW2,241 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,341 MW2,274 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,418 MW2,370 MW
15 Sept, 06:002,546 MW2,486 MW
15 Sept, 07:002,574 MW2,509 MW
15 Sept, 08:002,672 MW2,706 MW
15 Sept, 09:002,872 MW2,962 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,145 MW3,247 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,467 MW3,496 MW
15 Sept, 12:003,717 MW3,718 MW
15 Sept, 13:003,858 MW3,881 MW
15 Sept, 14:003,905 MW4,017 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,816 MW4,009 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,851 MW3,942 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,898 MW3,813 MW
15 Sept, 18:003,856 MW3,646 MW
15 Sept, 19:003,764 MW3,569 MW
15 Sept, 20:003,631 MW3,412 MW
15 Sept, 21:003,417 MW3,190 MW
15 Sept, 22:003,145 MW2,921 MW
15 Sept, 23:002,871 MW2,709 MW
16 Sept, 00:002,653 MW2,742 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,494 MW2,419 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,375 MW2,328 MW
16 Sept, 03:002,306 MW2,282 MW
16 Sept, 04:002,332 MW2,310 MW
16 Sept, 05:002,403 MW2,419 MW
16 Sept, 06:002,557 MW2,534 MW
16 Sept, 07:002,609 MW2,541 MW
16 Sept, 08:002,648 MW2,695 MW
16 Sept, 09:002,761 MW2,890 MW
16 Sept, 10:002,902 MW3,124 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,050 MW3,336 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,287 MW3,528 MW
16 Sept, 13:003,513 MW3,687 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,700 MW3,817 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,804 MW3,886 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,895 MW3,926 MW
16 Sept, 17:003,912 MW3,891 MW
16 Sept, 18:003,813 MW3,764 MW
16 Sept, 19:003,668 MW3,655 MW
16 Sept, 20:003,550 MW3,462 MW
16 Sept, 21:003,334 MW3,216 MW
16 Sept, 22:003,046 MW2,926 MW
16 Sept, 23:002,762 MW2,649 MW
17 Sept, 00:002,534 MW2,624 MW
17 Sept, 01:002,371 MW2,320 MW
17 Sept, 02:002,258 MW2,226 MW
17 Sept, 03:002,203 MW2,185 MW
17 Sept, 04:002,222 MW2,224 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,304 MW2,329 MW
17 Sept, 06:002,442 MW2,465 MW
17 Sept, 07:002,477 MW2,484 MW
17 Sept, 08:002,557 MW2,620 MW
17 Sept, 09:002,784 MW2,814 MW
17 Sept, 10:002,984 MW3,048 MW
17 Sept, 11:003,137 MW3,255 MW
17 Sept, 12:003,358 MW3,486 MW
17 Sept, 13:003,500 MW3,639 MW
17 Sept, 14:003,631 MW3,777 MW
17 Sept, 15:003,790 MW3,847 MW
17 Sept, 16:003,890 MW3,913 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,861 MW3,882 MW
17 Sept, 18:003,740 MW3,723 MW
17 Sept, 19:003,627 MW3,605 MW
17 Sept, 20:003,515 MW3,438 MW
17 Sept, 21:003,299 MW3,205 MW
17 Sept, 22:003,016 MW2,925 MW
17 Sept, 23:002,718 MW2,636 MW
18 Sept, 00:002,482 MW2,579 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,305 MW2,252 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,189 MW2,160 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,128 MW2,112 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,130 MW2,144 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,199 MW2,239 MW
18 Sept, 06:002,320 MW2,353 MW
18 Sept, 07:002,368 MW2,383 MW
18 Sept, 08:002,526 MW2,559 MW
18 Sept, 09:002,778 MW2,765 MW
18 Sept, 10:003,004 MW2,987 MW
18 Sept, 11:003,224 MW3,200 MW
18 Sept, 12:003,460 MW3,413 MW
18 Sept, 13:003,581 MW3,562 MW
18 Sept, 14:003,655 MW3,698 MW
18 Sept, 15:003,805 MW3,787 MW
18 Sept, 16:003,861 MW3,811 MW
18 Sept, 17:003,720 MW3,727 MW
18 Sept, 18:003,536 MW3,536 MW
18 Sept, 19:003,401 MW3,412 MW
18 Sept, 20:003,271 MW3,260 MW
18 Sept, 21:003,089 MW3,057 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,881 MW2,815 MW
18 Sept, 23:002,672 MW2,484 MW
19 Sept, 00:002,478 MW2,562 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,321 MW2,240 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,187 MW2,136 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,091 MW2,069 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,046 MW2,052 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,031 MW2,060 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,048 MW2,084 MW
19 Sept, 07:002,084 MW2,166 MW
19 Sept, 08:002,257 MW2,414 MW
19 Sept, 09:002,506 MW2,652 MW
19 Sept, 10:002,766 MW2,870 MW
19 Sept, 11:003,056 MW3,110 MW
19 Sept, 12:003,322 MW3,328 MW
19 Sept, 13:003,498 MW3,454 MW
19 Sept, 14:003,652 MW3,569 MW
19 Sept, 15:003,701 MW3,609 MW
19 Sept, 16:003,433 MW3,547 MW
19 Sept, 17:003,168 MW3,398 MW
19 Sept, 18:003,025 MW3,227 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,971 MW3,122 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,919 MW2,988 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,795 MW2,821 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,627 MW2,632 MW
19 Sept, 23:002,463 MW2,323 MW
20 Sept, 00:002,301 MW2,368 MW
20 Sept, 01:002,153 MW2,114 MW
20 Sept, 02:002,039 MW2,020 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,968 MW1,964 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,924 MW1,940 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,916 MW1,941 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,945 MW1,960 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,991 MW2,054 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,159 MW2,303 MW
20 Sept, 09:002,410 MW2,545 MW
20 Sept, 10:002,670 MW2,798 MW
20 Sept, 11:002,945 MW3,039 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,202 MW3,249 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,390 MW3,373 MW
20 Sept, 14:003,557 MW3,508 MW
20 Sept, 15:003,699 MW3,572 MW
20 Sept, 16:003,637 MW3,507 MW
20 Sept, 17:003,366 MW3,408 MW
20 Sept, 18:003,131 MW3,255 MW
20 Sept, 19:003,032 MW3,152 MW
20 Sept, 20:002,960 MW3,020 MW
20 Sept, 21:002,794 MW2,827 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (622 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.