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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PACW was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PACW was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PACW came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 55 MW, against average demand of 2,302 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 57% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.4%
Bias+0.4%
Hours within 5%92%
Worst miss269 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,079 MW, reported 2,348 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
PACW day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACW over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACW over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:002,886 MW2,938 MW
29 Oct, 08:002,910 MW2,974 MW
29 Oct, 09:002,815 MW2,895 MW
29 Oct, 10:002,683 MW2,768 MW
29 Oct, 11:002,531 MW2,641 MW
29 Oct, 12:002,465 MW2,544 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,389 MW2,477 MW
29 Oct, 14:002,349 MW2,426 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,360 MW2,407 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,415 MW2,437 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,525 MW2,531 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,608 MW2,632 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,609 MW2,670 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,557 MW2,623 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,439 MW2,520 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,311 MW2,393 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,189 MW2,276 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,108 MW2,210 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,063 MW2,111 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,050 MW2,107 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,071 MW2,131 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,124 MW2,212 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,315 MW2,407 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,566 MW2,679 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,744 MW2,864 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,764 MW2,864 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,757 MW2,779 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,681 MW2,675 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,547 MW2,560 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,442 MW2,483 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,390 MW2,424 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,331 MW2,371 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,327 MW2,378 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,365 MW2,448 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,440 MW2,547 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,535 MW2,645 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,508 MW2,629 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,479 MW2,575 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,417 MW2,475 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,324 MW2,326 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,236 MW2,209 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,173 MW2,141 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,147 MW2,116 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,136 MW2,111 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,172 MW2,130 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,227 MW2,186 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,330 MW2,304 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,489 MW2,474 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,645 MW2,643 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,769 MW2,717 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,785 MW2,648 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,701 MW2,514 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,598 MW2,385 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,508 MW2,285 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,434 MW2,212 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,395 MW2,166 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,375 MW2,167 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,418 MW2,217 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,421 MW2,318 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,438 MW2,417 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,394 MW2,420 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,371 MW2,374 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,332 MW2,295 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,249 MW2,195 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,179 MW2,103 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,099 MW2,043 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,071 MW1,984 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,047 MW1,961 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,058 MW1,981 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,081 MW2,017 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,136 MW2,101 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,234 MW2,237 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,386 MW2,397 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,517 MW2,530 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,592 MW2,581 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,552 MW2,495 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,451 MW2,413 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,381 MW2,331 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,313 MW2,268 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,286 MW2,226 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,263 MW2,221 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,323 MW2,289 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,432 MW2,436 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,613 MW2,571 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,622 MW2,623 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,583 MW2,604 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,519 MW2,555 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,411 MW2,464 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,284 MW2,347 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,190 MW2,252 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,143 MW2,192 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,135 MW2,170 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,144 MW2,169 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,197 MW2,210 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,318 MW2,325 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,546 MW2,545 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,874 MW2,802 MW
2 Nov, 07:003,001 MW2,937 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,922 MW2,914 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,820 MW2,810 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,715 MW2,711 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,625 MW2,627 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,605 MW2,569 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,593 MW2,533 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,582 MW2,511 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,603 MW2,538 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,687 MW2,645 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,814 MW2,759 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,793 MW2,791 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,732 MW2,750 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,625 MW2,671 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,492 MW2,552 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,328 MW2,407 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,198 MW2,291 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,134 MW2,132 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,084 MW2,092 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,069 MW2,069 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,092 MW2,087 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,172 MW2,181 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,373 MW2,394 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,670 MW2,651 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,804 MW2,798 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,775 MW2,783 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,731 MW2,683 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,683 MW2,581 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,587 MW2,492 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,533 MW2,435 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,509 MW2,398 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,509 MW2,383 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,552 MW2,411 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,588 MW2,527 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,737 MW2,655 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,738 MW2,709 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,696 MW2,679 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,595 MW2,616 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,499 MW2,509 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,347 MW2,378 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,261 MW2,261 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,180 MW2,198 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,146 MW2,160 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,158 MW2,151 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,192 MW2,185 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,311 MW2,297 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,524 MW2,528 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,829 MW2,791 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,959 MW2,920 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,874 MW2,868 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,737 MW2,728 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,601 MW2,598 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,496 MW2,500 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,474 MW2,445 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,441 MW2,422 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,464 MW2,419 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,494 MW2,448 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,584 MW2,549 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,732 MW2,655 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,721 MW2,689 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,657 MW2,641 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,561 MW2,563 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,426 MW2,444 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,283 MW2,302 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,146 MW2,186 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,080 MW2,167 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,044 MW2,141 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,023 MW2,119 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,041 MW2,136 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,137 MW2,216 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,300 MW2,417 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pacw_2026,
  title = {{PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/}
}

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