Statistics
Page built 2026-11-05
Data as of 2026-11-05
Search
Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FMPP was off by 4.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 717 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 409 MW (18.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FMPP was off by 4.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 717 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 409 MW (18.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FMPP came 29 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 92 MW, against average demand of 2,113 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

717 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.4%
Bias+1.1%
Hours within 5%67%
Worst miss409 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+27 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 409 MW (18.8%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 2,583 MW, reported 2,174 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
FMPP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FMPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FMPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:002,260 MW2,267 MW
29 Oct, 11:002,391 MW2,388 MW
29 Oct, 12:002,516 MW2,546 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,663 MW2,634 MW
29 Oct, 14:002,732 MW2,696 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,792 MW2,733 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,803 MW2,733 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,574 MW2,622 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,387 MW2,546 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,362 MW2,479 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,258 MW2,359 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,249 MW2,193 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,214 MW2,009 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,038 MW1,824 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,869 MW1,768 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,754 MW1,659 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,674 MW1,574 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,635 MW1,543 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,633 MW1,603 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,719 MW1,711 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,867 MW1,844 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,966 MW1,920 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,032 MW2,019 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,140 MW2,166 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,279 MW2,277 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,403 MW2,393 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,501 MW2,622 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,524 MW2,733 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,592 MW2,800 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,633 MW2,840 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,549 MW2,854 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,487 MW2,659 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,387 MW2,566 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,352 MW2,484 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,242 MW2,363 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,166 MW2,220 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,127 MW2,053 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,046 MW1,897 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,891 MW1,879 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,786 MW1,756 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,711 MW1,674 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,657 MW1,637 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,633 MW1,655 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,641 MW1,709 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,695 MW1,763 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,757 MW1,845 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,874 MW1,974 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,056 MW2,116 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,253 MW2,266 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,410 MW2,397 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,552 MW2,517 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,646 MW2,616 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,652 MW2,676 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,599 MW2,686 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,588 MW2,672 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,522 MW2,620 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,396 MW2,563 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,314 MW2,511 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,255 MW2,422 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,246 MW2,275 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,149 MW2,126 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,021 MW1,993 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,889 MW1,798 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,681 MW1,684 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,586 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:001,529 MW1,660 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,506 MW1,680 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,486 MW1,706 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,516 MW1,772 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,561 MW1,841 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,648 MW1,950 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,822 MW2,108 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,950 MW2,251 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,066 MW2,355 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,169 MW2,456 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,239 MW2,508 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,252 MW2,545 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,234 MW2,550 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,220 MW2,553 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,193 MW2,543 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,184 MW2,529 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,195 MW2,495 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,168 MW2,433 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,088 MW2,344 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,000 MW2,215 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,804 MW2,055 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,804 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:001,543 MW1,752 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,464 MW1,677 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,431 MW1,624 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,415 MW1,634 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,454 MW1,691 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,550 MW1,838 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,703 MW1,971 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,839 MW2,053 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,960 MW2,142 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,020 MW2,230 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,080 MW2,310 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,106 MW2,395 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,142 MW2,468 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,179 MW2,521 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,171 MW2,554 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,174 MW2,583 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,220 MW2,594 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,283 MW2,592 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,348 MW2,532 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,306 MW2,467 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,229 MW2,365 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,100 MW2,197 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,949 MW2,025 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,791 MW1,846 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,669 MW1,605 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,589 MW1,540 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,532 MW1,506 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,512 MW1,513 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,559 MW1,567 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,681 MW1,697 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,852 MW1,828 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,955 MW1,930 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,058 MW2,052 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,167 MW2,164 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,391 MW2,300 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,455 MW2,405 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,532 MW2,490 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,574 MW2,550 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,567 MW2,560 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,445 MW2,565 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,346 MW2,540 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,300 MW2,530 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,308 MW2,450 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,216 MW2,390 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,102 MW2,295 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,026 MW2,120 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,000 MW1,935 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,919 MW1,775 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,768 MW1,670 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,675 MW1,598 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,603 MW1,536 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,572 MW1,546 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,598 MW1,619 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,705 MW1,755 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,847 MW1,879 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,959 MW1,974 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,001 MW2,112 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,097 MW2,250 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,167 MW2,410 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,199 MW2,546 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,383 MW2,661 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,378 MW2,734 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,486 MW2,735 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,501 MW2,707 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,404 MW2,669 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,434 MW2,637 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,421 MW2,546 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,337 MW2,441 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,204 MW2,323 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,990 MW2,169 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,875 MW1,986 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,773 MW1,821 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,778 MW1,727 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,678 MW1,619 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,612 MW1,538 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,565 MW1,539 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,578 MW1,598 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,685 MW1,736 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,819 MW1,864 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,934 MW1,949 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,998 MW2,082 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (717 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fmpp_2026,
  title = {{FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.