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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AECI was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 456 MW (43.7%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AECI was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 456 MW (43.7%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AECI came 25 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 71 MW, against average demand of 1,992 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 43% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.6%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%75%
Worst miss456 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-9 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 456 MW (43.7%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 1,499 MW, reported 1,043 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
AECI day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AECI over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 29 Oct, 09:0030 Oct, 09:0031 Oct, 09:001 Nov, 08:002 Nov, 08:003 Nov, 08:004 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AECI over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 09:001,875 MW1,883 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,918 MW1,885 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,961 MW1,942 MW
29 Oct, 12:002,040 MW1,971 MW
29 Oct, 13:002,173 MW2,067 MW
29 Oct, 14:002,269 MW2,176 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,310 MW2,258 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,358 MW2,314 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,369 MW2,343 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,344 MW2,320 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,299 MW2,316 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,221 MW2,267 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,087 MW2,172 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,900 MW2,032 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,721 MW1,841 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,583 MW1,679 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,507 MW1,581 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,476 MW1,490 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,448 MW1,456 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,492 MW1,447 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,592 MW1,496 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,764 MW1,619 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,870 MW1,791 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,875 MW1,875 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,880 MW1,875 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,897 MW1,890 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,931 MW1,907 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,969 MW1,933 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,029 MW1,975 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,058 MW2,022 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,070 MW2,060 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,079 MW2,080 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,062 MW2,090 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,096 MW2,059 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,046 MW2,077 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,979 MW2,026 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,894 MW1,955 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,788 MW1,868 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,651 MW1,751 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,530 MW1,618 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,461 MW1,524 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,419 MW1,433 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,394 MW1,396 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,393 MW1,383 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,453 MW1,399 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,529 MW1,456 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,656 MW1,543 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,755 MW1,651 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,838 MW1,763 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,891 MW1,837 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,924 MW1,883 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,913 MW1,900 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,905 MW1,905 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,910 MW1,898 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,886 MW1,906 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,885 MW1,905 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,841 MW1,892 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,813 MW1,847 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,787 MW1,832 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,823 MW1,814 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,778 MW1,804 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,696 MW1,763 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,595 MW1,670 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,472 MW1,560 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,043 MW1,499 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,413 MW1,423 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,390 MW1,399 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,382 MW1,378 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,387 MW1,379 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,444 MW1,399 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,512 MW1,457 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,677 MW1,562 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,804 MW1,704 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,842 MW1,828 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,884 MW1,867 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,865 MW1,874 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,906 MW1,892 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,934 MW1,923 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,954 MW1,955 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,981 MW1,971 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,015 MW1,987 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,142 MW2,032 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,144 MW2,124 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,080 MW2,110 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,987 MW2,050 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,865 MW1,954 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,720 MW1,825 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,599 MW1,664 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,524 MW1,557 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,472 MW1,505 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,499 MW1,453 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,546 MW1,464 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,590 MW1,533 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,704 MW1,596 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,895 MW1,722 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,966 MW1,879 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,976 MW1,944 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,032 MW1,979 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,053 MW2,012 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,079 MW2,045 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,100 MW2,071 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,135 MW2,095 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,172 MW2,124 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,152 MW2,137 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,200 MW2,149 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,312 MW2,178 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,387 MW2,292 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,295 MW2,342 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,213 MW2,257 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,085 MW2,165 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,848 MW2,028 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,720 MW1,836 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,640 MW1,682 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,554 MW1,628 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,526 MW1,522 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,532 MW1,493 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,559 MW1,511 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,661 MW1,527 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,837 MW1,612 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,897 MW1,732 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,904 MW1,814 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,911 MW1,882 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,926 MW1,889 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,924 MW1,935 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,928 MW1,961 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,964 MW1,963 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,969 MW1,925 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,960 MW1,900 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,007 MW1,880 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,130 MW1,904 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,191 MW2,005 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,099 MW2,159 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,000 MW2,078 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,908 MW1,982 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,729 MW1,845 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,600 MW1,690 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,534 MW1,562 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,492 MW1,509 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,471 MW1,471 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,479 MW1,469 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,527 MW1,467 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,654 MW1,542 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,890 MW1,697 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,939 MW1,887 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,907 MW1,926 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,898 MW1,895 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,918 MW1,885 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,907 MW1,888 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,904 MW1,900 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,907 MW1,894 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,892 MW1,892 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,921 MW1,899 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,970 MW1,902 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,115 MW1,993 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,169 MW2,108 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,120 MW2,141 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,079 MW2,109 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,985 MW2,057 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,859 MW1,940 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,752 MW1,818 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,695 MW1,720 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,662 MW1,679 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,681 MW1,650 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,701 MW1,657 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,759 MW1,694 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,947 MW1,783 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,185 MW1,954 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,215 MW2,137 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_aeci_2026,
  title = {{AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/}
}

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