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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 646 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 646 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BANC came 5 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 35 MW, against average demand of 1,844 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

646 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.8%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%94%
Worst miss1,014 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,763 MW, reported 2,777 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
BANC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:001,882 MW1,879 MW
29 Oct, 08:001,892 MW1,881 MW
29 Oct, 09:001,917 MW1,855 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,865 MW1,800 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,818 MW1,760 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,815 MW1,727 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,769 MW1,729 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,730 MW1,735 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,793 MW1,752 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,817 MW1,800 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,857 MW1,856 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,930 MW1,936 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,921 MW1,943 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,889 MW1,895 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,815 MW1,810 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,707 MW1,692 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,579 MW1,584 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,589 MW1,561 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,511 MW1,516 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,455 MW1,459 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,442 MW1,430 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,468 MW1,454 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,543 MW1,532 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,694 MW1,682 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,829 MW1,814 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,855 MW1,836 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,864 MW1,827 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,852 MW1,796 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,760 MW1,766 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,766 MW1,743 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,753 MW1,739 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,783 MW1,745 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,790 MW1,765 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,805 MW1,804 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,840 MW1,840 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,890 MW1,895 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,863 MW1,883 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,815 MW1,829 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,752 MW1,760 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,673 MW1,680 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,561 MW1,595 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,559 MW1,575 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,495 MW1,494 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,442 MW1,433 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,404 MW1,396 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,402 MW1,395 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,435 MW1,427 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,495 MW1,495 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,576 MW1,583 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,631 MW1,628 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,673 MW1,666 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,698 MW1,669 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,634 MW1,641 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,652 MW1,625 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,611 MW1,628 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,727 MW1,649 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,736 MW1,682 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,746 MW1,726 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,749 MW1,780 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,748 MW1,839 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,693 MW1,840 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,671 MW1,801 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,652 MW1,748 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,586 MW1,666 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,500 MW1,568 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,506 MW1,508 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,453 MW1,450 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,396 MW1,404 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,379 MW1,390 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,368 MW1,421 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,383 MW1,465 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,427 MW1,516 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,492 MW1,548 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,551 MW1,556 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,574 MW1,556 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,563 MW1,544 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,550 MW1,548 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,589 MW1,566 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,531 MW1,597 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,555 MW1,650 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,612 MW1,725 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,836 MW1,836 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,748 MW1,928 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,864 MW1,922 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,866 MW1,873 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,821 MW1,819 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,768 MW1,735 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,682 MW1,633 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,582 MW1,522 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,483 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:001,498 MWn/a
2 Nov, 01:001,445 MWn/a
2 Nov, 02:001,424 MWn/a
2 Nov, 03:001,414 MWn/a
2 Nov, 04:001,457 MWn/a
2 Nov, 05:001,574 MWn/a
2 Nov, 06:001,750 MWn/a
2 Nov, 07:001,846 MWn/a
2 Nov, 08:001,814 MWn/a
2 Nov, 09:002,693 MWn/a
2 Nov, 10:001,772 MWn/a
2 Nov, 11:001,788 MWn/a
2 Nov, 12:001,828 MWn/a
2 Nov, 13:001,825 MWn/a
2 Nov, 14:001,846 MWn/a
2 Nov, 15:001,850 MWn/a
2 Nov, 16:001,902 MWn/a
2 Nov, 17:002,006 MWn/a
2 Nov, 18:001,983 MWn/a
2 Nov, 19:001,937 MWn/a
2 Nov, 20:001,884 MWn/a
2 Nov, 21:001,794 MWn/a
2 Nov, 22:001,677 MWn/a
2 Nov, 23:001,550 MWn/a
3 Nov, 00:001,558 MW1,541 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,503 MWn/a
3 Nov, 02:001,451 MWn/a
3 Nov, 03:001,440 MWn/a
3 Nov, 04:001,483 MWn/a
3 Nov, 05:001,599 MWn/a
3 Nov, 06:001,759 MWn/a
3 Nov, 07:001,871 MWn/a
3 Nov, 08:001,899 MWn/a
3 Nov, 09:001,895 MWn/a
3 Nov, 10:001,972 MWn/a
3 Nov, 11:001,956 MWn/a
3 Nov, 12:001,927 MWn/a
3 Nov, 13:001,929 MWn/a
3 Nov, 14:001,894 MWn/a
3 Nov, 15:001,904 MWn/a
3 Nov, 16:001,940 MWn/a
3 Nov, 17:002,032 MWn/a
3 Nov, 18:002,023 MWn/a
3 Nov, 19:001,973 MWn/a
3 Nov, 20:001,923 MWn/a
3 Nov, 21:001,830 MWn/a
3 Nov, 22:001,712 MWn/a
3 Nov, 23:001,580 MWn/a
4 Nov, 00:001,590 MW1,573 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,526 MW1,519 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,472 MW1,474 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,448 MW1,458 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,507 MW1,494 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,600 MW1,602 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,781 MW1,769 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,859 MW1,862 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,833 MW1,838 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,762 MW1,793 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,715 MW1,754 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,673 MW1,714 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,670 MW1,703 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,687 MW1,718 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,740 MW1,760 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,780 MW1,817 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,868 MW1,906 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,974 MW2,028 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,961 MW2,001 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,922 MW1,944 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,884 MW1,895 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,807 MW1,797 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,694 MW1,678 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,587 MW1,576 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,594 MW1,578 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,523 MW1,513 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,479 MW1,470 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,467 MW1,456 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,501 MW1,496 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,612 MW1,612 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (646 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_banc_2026,
  title = {{BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/}
}

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