Statistics
Page built 2026-09-21
Data as of 2026-09-20
Search
Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 21 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,403 MW (51.7%) too low at 3 Sept 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,403 MW (51.7%) too low at 3 Sept 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BANC came 10 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 59 MW, against average demand of 2,221 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.3%
Bias+0.0%
Hours within 5%93%
Worst miss2,403 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-8 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,403 MW (51.7%) too low at 3 Sept 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,246 MW, reported 4,649 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
BANC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 13 Sept, 19:0014 Sept, 19:0015 Sept, 19:0016 Sept, 19:0017 Sept, 19:0018 Sept, 19:0019 Sept, 19:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
BANC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 19:002,370 MW2,319 MW
13 Sept, 20:002,302 MW2,251 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,170 MW2,109 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,990 MW1,959 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,817 MW1,817 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,748 MW1,764 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,646 MW1,673 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,585 MW1,598 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,532 MW1,556 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,562 MW1,576 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,636 MW1,642 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,753 MW1,766 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,826 MW1,836 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,847 MW1,860 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,882 MW1,901 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,892 MW1,939 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,930 MW1,992 MW
14 Sept, 12:002,008 MW2,074 MW
14 Sept, 13:002,094 MW2,199 MW
14 Sept, 14:002,262 MW2,359 MW
14 Sept, 15:002,452 MW2,530 MW
14 Sept, 16:002,558 MW2,679 MW
14 Sept, 17:002,629 MW2,756 MW
14 Sept, 18:002,627 MW2,725 MW
14 Sept, 19:002,587 MW2,626 MW
14 Sept, 20:002,453 MW2,525 MW
14 Sept, 21:002,278 MW2,338 MW
14 Sept, 22:002,052 MW2,132 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,853 MW1,949 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,814 MW1,807 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,703 MW1,705 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,618 MW1,619 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,567 MW1,573 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,568 MW1,588 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,632 MW1,661 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,772 MW1,793 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,831 MW1,850 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,853 MW1,868 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,915 MW1,906 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,913 MW1,941 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,978 MW1,994 MW
15 Sept, 12:002,073 MW2,091 MW
15 Sept, 13:002,241 MW2,241 MW
15 Sept, 14:002,415 MW2,424 MW
15 Sept, 15:002,613 MW2,618 MW
15 Sept, 16:002,782 MW2,774 MW
15 Sept, 17:002,853 MW2,843 MW
15 Sept, 18:002,779 MW2,778 MW
15 Sept, 19:002,697 MW2,660 MW
15 Sept, 20:002,523 MW2,531 MW
15 Sept, 21:002,337 MW2,333 MW
15 Sept, 22:002,121 MW2,113 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,929 MW1,923 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,856 MW1,813 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,746 MW1,708 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,645 MW1,625 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,590 MW1,578 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,591 MW1,582 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,657 MW1,639 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,775 MW1,766 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,828 MW1,826 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,866 MW1,844 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,898 MW1,867 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,878 MW1,884 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,967 MW1,913 MW
16 Sept, 12:002,960 MW1,960 MW
16 Sept, 13:002,030 MW2,043 MW
16 Sept, 14:002,142 MW2,136 MW
16 Sept, 15:002,278 MW2,231 MW
16 Sept, 16:002,355 MW2,329 MW
16 Sept, 17:002,406 MW2,366 MW
16 Sept, 18:002,284 MW2,342 MW
16 Sept, 19:002,222 MW2,288 MW
16 Sept, 20:002,162 MW2,223 MW
16 Sept, 21:002,066 MW2,088 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,924 MW1,934 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,795 MW1,799 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,755 MW1,742 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,677 MW1,670 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,609 MW1,602 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,560 MW1,568 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,575 MW1,578 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,648 MW1,664 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,766 MW1,786 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,832 MW1,844 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,802 MW1,836 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,892 MW1,840 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,924 MW1,848 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,928 MW2,985 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,935 MW1,892 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,924 MW1,952 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,967 MW2,024 MW
17 Sept, 15:002,066 MW2,131 MW
17 Sept, 16:002,149 MW2,226 MW
17 Sept, 17:002,236 MW2,291 MW
17 Sept, 18:002,245 MW2,275 MW
17 Sept, 19:002,287 MW2,258 MW
17 Sept, 20:002,215 MW2,225 MW
17 Sept, 21:002,109 MW2,095 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,967 MW1,948 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,819 MW1,799 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,769 MW1,774 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,682 MW1,697 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,599 MW1,628 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,557 MW1,592 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,567 MW1,603 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,633 MW1,671 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,748 MW1,792 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,820 MW1,856 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,868 MW1,867 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,912 MW1,906 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,914 MW1,925 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,925 MW1,987 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,969 MW2,067 MW
18 Sept, 13:002,074 MW2,180 MW
18 Sept, 14:002,183 MW2,321 MW
18 Sept, 15:002,363 MW2,501 MW
18 Sept, 16:002,517 MW2,668 MW
18 Sept, 17:002,571 MW2,722 MW
18 Sept, 18:002,532 MW2,686 MW
18 Sept, 19:002,455 MW2,592 MW
18 Sept, 20:002,414 MW2,491 MW
18 Sept, 21:002,228 MW2,318 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,079 MW2,133 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,930 MW1,965 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,866 MW1,878 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,744 MW1,768 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,657 MW1,679 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,582 MW1,614 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,563 MW1,585 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,569 MW1,590 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,612 MW1,627 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,626 MW1,651 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,690 MW1,700 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,743 MW1,764 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,783 MW1,819 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,847 MW1,905 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,950 MW2,016 MW
19 Sept, 13:002,096 MW2,180 MW
19 Sept, 14:002,286 MW2,391 MW
19 Sept, 15:002,489 MW2,597 MW
19 Sept, 16:002,651 MW2,774 MW
19 Sept, 17:002,767 MW2,866 MW
19 Sept, 18:002,719 MW2,820 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,576 MW2,699 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,429 MW2,552 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,236 MW2,353 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,120 MW2,167 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,911 MW1,999 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,831 MW1,846 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,714 MW1,750 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,606 MW1,653 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,557 MW1,584 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,518 MW1,561 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,524 MW1,559 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,553 MW1,574 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,563 MW1,590 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,622 MW1,644 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,688 MW1,703 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,732 MW1,757 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,832 MW1,827 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,974 MW1,919 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,955 MW2,044 MW
20 Sept, 14:002,091 MW2,204 MW
20 Sept, 15:002,215 MW2,378 MW
20 Sept, 16:002,511 MW2,511 MW
20 Sept, 17:002,329 MW2,542 MW
20 Sept, 18:002,495 MW2,495 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.