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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for IPCO was off by 4.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 66% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 280 MW (15.2%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for IPCO was off by 4.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 66% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 280 MW (15.2%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, IPCO came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 75 MW, against average demand of 1,820 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 66% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.1%
Bias+1.4%
Hours within 5%66%
Worst miss280 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+20 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 280 MW (15.2%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,121 MW, reported 1,841 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
IPCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for IPCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for IPCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:002,084 MWn/a
29 Oct, 08:002,115 MWn/a
29 Oct, 09:002,040 MWn/a
29 Oct, 10:001,967 MWn/a
29 Oct, 11:001,988 MWn/a
29 Oct, 12:001,945 MWn/a
29 Oct, 13:001,814 MWn/a
29 Oct, 14:001,791 MWn/a
29 Oct, 15:001,859 MWn/a
29 Oct, 16:001,854 MWn/a
29 Oct, 17:001,926 MWn/a
29 Oct, 18:001,980 MWn/a
29 Oct, 19:001,944 MWn/a
29 Oct, 20:001,886 MWn/a
29 Oct, 21:001,787 MWn/a
29 Oct, 22:001,692 MWn/a
29 Oct, 23:001,618 MWn/a
30 Oct, 00:001,596 MW1,657 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,585 MW1,646 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,589 MW1,635 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,634 MW1,691 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,710 MW1,814 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,859 MW1,965 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,991 MW2,050 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,046 MW2,058 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,058 MW1,992 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,056 MW1,914 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,012 MW1,857 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,921 MW1,817 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,878 MW1,787 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,836 MW1,776 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,809 MW1,809 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,825 MW1,869 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,837 MW1,904 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,881 MW1,936 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,904 MW1,958 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,878 MW1,945 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,828 MW1,856 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,761 MW1,750 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,669 MW1,662 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,615 MW1,620 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,577 MW1,632 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,555 MW1,620 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,551 MW1,609 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,567 MW1,629 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,600 MW1,679 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,677 MW1,747 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,781 MW1,824 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,863 MW1,887 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,912 MW1,868 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,888 MW1,829 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,862 MW1,820 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,828 MW1,810 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,784 MW1,791 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,770 MW1,780 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,739 MW1,789 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,753 MW1,856 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,785 MW1,917 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,789 MW1,937 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,793 MW1,905 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,779 MW1,879 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,737 MW1,827 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,681 MW1,754 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,608 MW1,671 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,552 MW1,616 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,513 MW1,592 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,494 MW1,533 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,481 MW1,550 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,481 MW1,532 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,479 MW1,544 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,527 MW1,574 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,607 MW1,625 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,704 MW1,689 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,801 MW1,786 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,846 MW1,817 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,889 MW1,833 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,864 MW1,846 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,826 MW1,842 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,818 MW1,826 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,788 MW1,829 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,820 MW1,860 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,878 MW1,958 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,978 MW2,042 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,024 MW2,045 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,996 MW1,990 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,954 MW1,940 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,869 MW1,872 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,763 MW1,766 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,676 MW1,676 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,626 MW1,634 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,599 MW1,648 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,605 MW1,632 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,627 MW1,643 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,617 MW1,704 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,814 MW1,830 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,003 MW1,984 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,041 MW2,093 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,113 MW2,135 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,058 MW2,099 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,036 MW2,018 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,925 MW1,930 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,897 MW1,867 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,905 MW1,829 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,879 MW1,812 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,871 MW1,814 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,927 MW1,883 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,017 MW1,968 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,013 MW2,006 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,992 MW1,968 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,993 MW1,909 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,873 MW1,824 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,860 MW1,733 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,763 MW1,662 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,706 MW1,641 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,682 MW1,700 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,672 MW1,740 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,676 MW1,698 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,715 MW1,756 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,826 MW1,867 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,987 MW2,016 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,103 MW2,119 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,148 MW2,159 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,086 MW2,102 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,115 MW2,008 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,029 MW1,914 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,033 MW1,850 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,013 MW1,816 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,945 MW1,809 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,945 MW1,825 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,938 MW1,900 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,020 MW1,983 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,071 MW2,007 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,067 MW1,949 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,023 MW1,871 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,924 MW1,777 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,802 MW1,681 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,715 MW1,612 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,649 MW1,591 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,621 MW1,656 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,611 MW1,676 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,618 MW1,648 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,668 MW1,707 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,784 MW1,829 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,962 MW1,985 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,065 MW2,087 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,067 MW2,125 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,991 MW2,079 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,944 MW2,002 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,896 MW1,920 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,837 MW1,860 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,793 MW1,826 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,781 MW1,815 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,801 MW1,822 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,845 MW1,894 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,949 MW1,978 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,033 MW2,011 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,005 MW1,965 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,981 MW1,901 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,910 MW1,814 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,828 MW1,726 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,736 MW1,659 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,683 MW1,642 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,666 MW1,691 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,656 MW1,735 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,680 MW1,753 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,719 MW1,762 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,827 MW1,887 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,004 MW2,036 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ipco_2026,
  title = {{IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/}
}

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