Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 22 August to 20 September 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 4.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 711 hours from 22 August to 20 September 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 453 MW (57.1%) too high at 13 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tirane).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 4.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 711 hours from 22 August to 20 September 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 453 MW (57.1%) too high at 13 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Albania came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 42 MW, against average demand of 1,011 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
711 hours from 22 August to 20 September 2026Average error4.2%
Bias+1.9%
Hours within 5%71%
Worst miss453 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+19 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 453 MW (57.1%) too high at 13 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,248 MW, reported 794 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)Data to 2026-09-20
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept, 15:00 | 804 MW | 1,183 MW |
| 13 Sept, 16:00 | 860 MW | 1,001 MW |
| 13 Sept, 17:00 | 936 MW | 1,068 MW |
| 13 Sept, 18:00 | 1,007 MW | 1,137 MW |
| 13 Sept, 19:00 | 1,097 MW | 1,213 MW |
| 13 Sept, 20:00 | 1,089 MW | 1,189 MW |
| 13 Sept, 21:00 | 1,017 MW | 1,101 MW |
| 13 Sept, 22:00 | 902 MW | 970 MW |
| 13 Sept, 23:00 | 776 MW | 830 MW |
| 14 Sept, 00:00 | 680 MW | 654 MW |
| 14 Sept, 01:00 | 625 MW | 596 MW |
| 14 Sept, 02:00 | 596 MW | 558 MW |
| 14 Sept, 03:00 | 582 MW | 590 MW |
| 14 Sept, 04:00 | 587 MW | 576 MW |
| 14 Sept, 05:00 | 634 MW | 603 MW |
| 14 Sept, 06:00 | 751 MW | 719 MW |
| 14 Sept, 07:00 | 863 MW | 852 MW |
| 14 Sept, 08:00 | 854 MW | 876 MW |
| 14 Sept, 09:00 | 834 MW | 873 MW |
| 14 Sept, 10:00 | 823 MW | 869 MW |
| 14 Sept, 11:00 | 821 MW | 874 MW |
| 14 Sept, 12:00 | 822 MW | 886 MW |
| 14 Sept, 13:00 | 836 MW | 881 MW |
| 14 Sept, 14:00 | 844 MW | 897 MW |
| 14 Sept, 15:00 | 867 MW | 914 MW |
| 14 Sept, 16:00 | 895 MW | 943 MW |
| 14 Sept, 17:00 | 954 MW | 1,004 MW |
| 14 Sept, 18:00 | 1,019 MW | 1,062 MW |
| 14 Sept, 19:00 | 1,102 MW | 1,128 MW |
| 14 Sept, 20:00 | 1,075 MW | 1,091 MW |
| 14 Sept, 21:00 | 997 MW | 983 MW |
| 14 Sept, 22:00 | 881 MW | 864 MW |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 | 757 MW | 735 MW |
| 15 Sept, 00:00 | 677 MW | 635 MW |
| 15 Sept, 01:00 | 627 MW | 586 MW |
| 15 Sept, 02:00 | 605 MW | 560 MW |
| 15 Sept, 03:00 | 593 MW | 546 MW |
| 15 Sept, 04:00 | 595 MW | 545 MW |
| 15 Sept, 05:00 | 640 MW | 602 MW |
| 15 Sept, 06:00 | 757 MW | 721 MW |
| 15 Sept, 07:00 | 887 MW | 869 MW |
| 15 Sept, 08:00 | 923 MW | 901 MW |
| 15 Sept, 09:00 | 905 MW | 811 MW |
| 15 Sept, 10:00 | 879 MW | 800 MW |
| 15 Sept, 11:00 | 879 MW | 794 MW |
| 15 Sept, 12:00 | 884 MW | 789 MW |
| 15 Sept, 13:00 | 903 MW | 806 MW |
| 15 Sept, 14:00 | 946 MW | 839 MW |
| 15 Sept, 15:00 | 923 MW | 851 MW |
| 15 Sept, 16:00 | 910 MW | 860 MW |
| 15 Sept, 17:00 | 979 MW | 926 MW |
| 15 Sept, 18:00 | 1,036 MW | 984 MW |
| 15 Sept, 19:00 | 1,109 MW | 1,088 MW |
| 15 Sept, 20:00 | 1,072 MW | 1,050 MW |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 | 978 MW | 956 MW |
| 15 Sept, 22:00 | 865 MW | 848 MW |
| 15 Sept, 23:00 | 743 MW | 719 MW |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 | 664 MW | 681 MW |
| 16 Sept, 01:00 | 621 MW | 624 MW |
| 16 Sept, 02:00 | 595 MW | 604 MW |
| 16 Sept, 03:00 | 585 MW | 591 MW |
| 16 Sept, 04:00 | 588 MW | 594 MW |
| 16 Sept, 05:00 | 635 MW | 643 MW |
| 16 Sept, 06:00 | 751 MW | 765 MW |
| 16 Sept, 07:00 | 886 MW | 880 MW |
| 16 Sept, 08:00 | 908 MW | 878 MW |
| 16 Sept, 09:00 | 888 MW | 850 MW |
| 16 Sept, 10:00 | 854 MW | 839 MW |
| 16 Sept, 11:00 | 850 MW | 837 MW |
| 16 Sept, 12:00 | 848 MW | 851 MW |
| 16 Sept, 13:00 | 883 MW | 857 MW |
| 16 Sept, 14:00 | 889 MW | 871 MW |
| 16 Sept, 15:00 | 909 MW | 900 MW |
| 16 Sept, 16:00 | 936 MW | 907 MW |
| 16 Sept, 17:00 | 1,003 MW | 974 MW |
| 16 Sept, 18:00 | 1,058 MW | 1,033 MW |
| 16 Sept, 19:00 | 1,132 MW | 1,111 MW |
| 16 Sept, 20:00 | 1,090 MW | 1,085 MW |
| 16 Sept, 21:00 | 1,008 MW | 1,031 MW |
| 16 Sept, 22:00 | 895 MW | 908 MW |
| 16 Sept, 23:00 | 772 MW | 783 MW |
| 17 Sept, 00:00 | 674 MW | 671 MW |
| 17 Sept, 01:00 | 622 MW | 618 MW |
| 17 Sept, 02:00 | 599 MW | 590 MW |
| 17 Sept, 03:00 | 583 MW | 590 MW |
| 17 Sept, 04:00 | 591 MW | 589 MW |
| 17 Sept, 05:00 | 642 MW | 626 MW |
| 17 Sept, 06:00 | 755 MW | 741 MW |
| 17 Sept, 07:00 | 888 MW | 876 MW |
| 17 Sept, 08:00 | 910 MW | 875 MW |
| 17 Sept, 09:00 | 881 MW | 864 MW |
| 17 Sept, 10:00 | 857 MW | 839 MW |
| 17 Sept, 11:00 | 856 MW | 846 MW |
| 17 Sept, 12:00 | 864 MW | 850 MW |
| 17 Sept, 13:00 | 894 MW | 893 MW |
| 17 Sept, 14:00 | 886 MW | 911 MW |
| 17 Sept, 15:00 | 904 MW | 901 MW |
| 17 Sept, 16:00 | 922 MW | 900 MW |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 | 990 MW | 959 MW |
| 17 Sept, 18:00 | 1,053 MW | 1,018 MW |
| 17 Sept, 19:00 | 1,120 MW | 1,091 MW |
| 17 Sept, 20:00 | 1,079 MW | 1,063 MW |
| 17 Sept, 21:00 | 992 MW | 976 MW |
| 17 Sept, 22:00 | 871 MW | 869 MW |
| 17 Sept, 23:00 | 748 MW | 744 MW |
| 18 Sept, 00:00 | 674 MW | 661 MW |
| 18 Sept, 01:00 | 625 MW | 613 MW |
| 18 Sept, 02:00 | 601 MW | 586 MW |
| 18 Sept, 03:00 | 592 MW | 574 MW |
| 18 Sept, 04:00 | 597 MW | 578 MW |
| 18 Sept, 05:00 | 642 MW | 627 MW |
| 18 Sept, 06:00 | 759 MW | 746 MW |
| 18 Sept, 07:00 | 895 MW | 883 MW |
| 18 Sept, 08:00 | 919 MW | 906 MW |
| 18 Sept, 09:00 | 892 MW | 886 MW |
| 18 Sept, 10:00 | 867 MW | 857 MW |
| 18 Sept, 11:00 | 875 MW | 861 MW |
| 18 Sept, 12:00 | 864 MW | 857 MW |
| 18 Sept, 13:00 | 889 MW | 878 MW |
| 18 Sept, 14:00 | 905 MW | 885 MW |
| 18 Sept, 15:00 | 949 MW | 900 MW |
| 18 Sept, 16:00 | 973 MW | 919 MW |
| 18 Sept, 17:00 | 1,006 MW | 987 MW |
| 18 Sept, 18:00 | 1,064 MW | 1,033 MW |
| 18 Sept, 19:00 | 1,127 MW | 1,105 MW |
| 18 Sept, 20:00 | 1,073 MW | 1,066 MW |
| 18 Sept, 21:00 | 993 MW | 985 MW |
| 18 Sept, 22:00 | 877 MW | 873 MW |
| 18 Sept, 23:00 | 764 MW | 749 MW |
| 19 Sept, 00:00 | 690 MW | 674 MW |
| 19 Sept, 01:00 | 643 MW | 621 MW |
| 19 Sept, 02:00 | 616 MW | 591 MW |
| 19 Sept, 03:00 | 604 MW | 572 MW |
| 19 Sept, 04:00 | 604 MW | 570 MW |
| 19 Sept, 05:00 | 642 MW | 600 MW |
| 19 Sept, 06:00 | 721 MW | 667 MW |
| 19 Sept, 07:00 | 839 MW | 835 MW |
| 19 Sept, 08:00 | 906 MW | 872 MW |
| 19 Sept, 09:00 | 913 MW | 863 MW |
| 19 Sept, 10:00 | 912 MW | 867 MW |
| 19 Sept, 11:00 | 920 MW | 849 MW |
| 19 Sept, 12:00 | 920 MW | 869 MW |
| 19 Sept, 13:00 | 912 MW | 894 MW |
| 19 Sept, 14:00 | 919 MW | 901 MW |
| 19 Sept, 15:00 | 925 MW | 907 MW |
| 19 Sept, 16:00 | 983 MW | 923 MW |
| 19 Sept, 17:00 | 1,023 MW | 970 MW |
| 19 Sept, 18:00 | 1,060 MW | 1,035 MW |
| 19 Sept, 19:00 | 1,117 MW | 1,083 MW |
| 19 Sept, 20:00 | 1,056 MW | 1,074 MW |
| 19 Sept, 21:00 | 974 MW | 982 MW |
| 19 Sept, 22:00 | 870 MW | 875 MW |
| 19 Sept, 23:00 | 762 MW | 758 MW |
| 20 Sept, 00:00 | 684 MW | 677 MW |
| 20 Sept, 01:00 | 637 MW | 623 MW |
| 20 Sept, 02:00 | 609 MW | 584 MW |
| 20 Sept, 03:00 | 593 MW | 570 MW |
| 20 Sept, 04:00 | 594 MW | 575 MW |
| 20 Sept, 05:00 | 626 MW | 606 MW |
| 20 Sept, 06:00 | 680 MW | 656 MW |
| 20 Sept, 07:00 | 763 MW | 745 MW |
| 20 Sept, 08:00 | 827 MW | 819 MW |
| 20 Sept, 09:00 | 836 MW | 899 MW |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 | 812 MW | 865 MW |
| 20 Sept, 11:00 | 817 MW | 877 MW |
| 20 Sept, 12:00 | 829 MW | 873 MW |
| 20 Sept, 13:00 | 836 MW | 867 MW |
| 20 Sept, 14:00 | 816 MW | 849 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (711 of 711 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.