Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 7 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 662 hours from 7 October to 5 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tirane).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 662 hours from 7 October to 5 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Albania came 23 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 29 MW, against average demand of 870 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 38% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

662 hours from 7 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.2%

Bias-0.7%

Hours within 5%80%

Worst miss167 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,049 MW, reported 882 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Albania over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 15:00	1,024 MW	1,022 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	1,107 MW	1,113 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	1,254 MW	1,268 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	1,274 MW	1,290 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	1,254 MW	1,275 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	1,189 MW	1,235 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	1,078 MW	1,123 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	927 MW	968 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	771 MW	821 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	665 MW	678 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	607 MW	619 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	597 MW	611 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	587 MW	603 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	587 MW	606 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	660 MW	693 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	837 MW	875 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	1,015 MW	1,025 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	1,052 MW	1,025 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	1,066 MW	974 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	1,041 MW	924 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	990 MW	927 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	973 MW	900 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	1,014 MW	941 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	1,021 MW	975 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	1,047 MW	1,007 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	1,103 MW	1,096 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	1,242 MW	1,247 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	1,248 MW	1,276 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	1,220 MW	1,245 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	1,168 MW	1,193 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	1,059 MW	1,072 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	919 MW	922 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	779 MW	771 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	681 MW	664 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	626 MW	606 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	608 MW	593 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	595 MW	585 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	591 MW	575 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	656 MW	635 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	778 MW	768 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	934 MW	932 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	1,047 MW	1,063 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	1,074 MW	1,083 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	1,004 MW	1,058 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	972 MW	1,059 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	1,013 MW	1,060 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	1,044 MW	1,078 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	1,067 MW	1,076 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	1,109 MW	1,111 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	1,176 MW	1,189 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	1,277 MW	1,275 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	1,253 MW	1,253 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	1,213 MW	1,214 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	1,150 MW	1,151 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	1,036 MW	1,037 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	907 MW	901 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	779 MW	764 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	680 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	623 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 02:00	607 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 03:00	592 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 04:00	587 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 05:00	635 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 06:00	711 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 07:00	849 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 08:00	957 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 09:00	1,013 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 10:00	1,018 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 11:00	1,058 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 12:00	1,122 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 13:00	1,150 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 14:00	1,143 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 15:00	1,142 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 16:00	1,202 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 17:00	1,310 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 18:00	1,322 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 19:00	1,299 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 20:00	1,233 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 21:00	1,109 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 22:00	946 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 23:00	782 MW	n/a
2 Nov, 00:00	661 MW	644 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	594 MW	584 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	584 MW	575 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	565 MW	564 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	569 MW	569 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	647 MW	655 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	838 MW	837 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	1,032 MW	1,020 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	1,062 MW	1,055 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	1,029 MW	1,068 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	975 MW	1,054 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	983 MW	1,036 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	971 MW	1,022 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	1,023 MW	1,054 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	1,071 MW	1,075 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	1,113 MW	1,086 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	1,172 MW	1,141 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	1,282 MW	1,269 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	1,285 MW	1,273 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	1,258 MW	1,239 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	1,204 MW	1,176 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	1,096 MW	1,054 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	949 MW	915 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	776 MW	770 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	664 MW	655 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	599 MW	597 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	605 MW	599 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	589 MW	594 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	566 MW	566 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	633 MW	646 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	812 MW	832 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	1,021 MW	1,023 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	1,087 MW	1,084 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	1,099 MW	1,094 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	1,097 MW	1,046 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	1,100 MW	1,028 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	1,101 MW	1,036 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	1,111 MW	1,075 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	1,110 MW	1,088 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	1,131 MW	1,103 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	1,184 MW	1,176 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	1,319 MW	1,299 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	1,327 MW	1,306 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	1,301 MW	1,274 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	1,257 MW	1,219 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	1,136 MW	1,071 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	983 MW	923 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	813 MW	774 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	690 MW	666 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	622 MW	661 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	597 MW	669 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	579 MW	666 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	585 MW	653 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	667 MW	664 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	862 MW	856 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	1,064 MW	1,035 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	1,035 MW	1,039 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	968 MW	972 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	912 MW	973 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	889 MW	961 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	886 MW	950 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	936 MW	951 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	1,001 MW	1,008 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	1,073 MW	1,062 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	1,163 MW	1,140 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	1,331 MW	1,303 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	1,357 MW	1,320 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	1,335 MW	1,294 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	1,287 MW	1,235 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	1,164 MW	1,122 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	1,010 MW	946 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	829 MW	782 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	696 MW	654 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	625 MW	640 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	629 MW	682 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	613 MW	684 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	604 MW	626 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	667 MW	660 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	862 MW	853 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	1,051 MW	1,029 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	1,049 MW	1,038 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	981 MW	1,021 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	916 MW	1,019 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	895 MW	1,017 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	886 MW	1,010 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	930 MW	964 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	992 MW	993 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (662 of 711 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_al_2026,
  title = {{Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

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Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 7 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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