Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Estonia was off by 11.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 33% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tallinn).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Estonia was off by 11.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 33% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Estonia came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 96 MW, against average demand of 902 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 59% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

688 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026

Average error11.7%

Bias+5.8%

Hours within 5%33%

Worst miss576 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+38 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,157 MW, reported 581 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Estonia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 16:00	1,172 MW	1,010 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	1,163 MW	1,105 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	1,160 MW	1,109 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	1,094 MW	1,108 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	1,127 MW	1,069 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	1,018 MW	1,012 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	1,093 MW	927 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	995 MW	842 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	918 MW	808 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	821 MW	790 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	804 MW	775 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	857 MW	777 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	923 MW	819 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	932 MW	817 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	954 MW	889 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	935 MW	980 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	921 MW	1,040 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	909 MW	1,080 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	975 MW	1,058 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	1,033 MW	1,064 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	1,153 MW	1,038 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	1,088 MW	1,075 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	1,023 MW	1,105 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	1,011 MW	1,139 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	1,023 MW	1,116 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	1,017 MW	1,087 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	1,107 MW	1,133 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	1,124 MW	1,105 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	1,087 MW	1,081 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	950 MW	1,014 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	937 MW	986 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	800 MW	884 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	712 MW	852 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	729 MW	817 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	718 MW	743 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	722 MW	780 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	814 MW	781 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	856 MW	834 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	843 MW	892 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	801 MW	854 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	845 MW	904 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	841 MW	912 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	999 MW	936 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	1,006 MW	953 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	1,088 MW	990 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	1,141 MW	928 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	1,021 MW	906 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	1,005 MW	908 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	899 MW	907 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	922 MW	926 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	938 MW	973 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	1,017 MW	950 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	975 MW	929 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	900 MW	887 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	924 MW	841 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	753 MW	844 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	890 MW	746 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	723 MW	720 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	835 MW	710 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	867 MW	704 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	732 MW	701 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	803 MW	726 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	843 MW	761 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	828 MW	794 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	840 MW	803 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	892 MW	855 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	960 MW	881 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	1,010 MW	892 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	974 MW	908 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	1,038 MW	913 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	942 MW	904 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	873 MW	900 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	1,044 MW	913 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	997 MW	935 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	1,032 MW	912 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	1,015 MW	881 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	1,024 MW	871 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	1,061 MW	835 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	872 MW	799 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	887 MW	749 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	915 MW	716 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	871 MW	784 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	840 MW	776 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	860 MW	812 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	866 MW	813 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	868 MW	808 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	904 MW	877 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	986 MW	938 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	848 MW	999 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	806 MW	1,033 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	831 MW	1,043 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	932 MW	1,039 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	957 MW	1,047 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	1,039 MW	1,041 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	1,038 MW	1,048 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	1,143 MW	1,038 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	985 MW	1,015 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	990 MW	1,008 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	1,062 MW	1,012 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	1,058 MW	1,014 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	1,047 MW	985 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	976 MW	916 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	944 MW	866 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	864 MW	794 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	880 MW	773 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	763 MW	785 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	774 MW	742 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	828 MW	761 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	917 MW	819 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	856 MW	841 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	932 MW	875 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	944 MW	975 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	939 MW	1,023 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	1,055 MW	1,059 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	1,058 MW	1,066 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	1,150 MW	1,055 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	1,205 MW	1,044 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	1,148 MW	1,039 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	1,114 MW	1,064 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	1,034 MW	1,067 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	1,016 MW	1,030 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	1,122 MW	1,026 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	1,130 MW	1,064 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	1,135 MW	1,060 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	1,044 MW	1,024 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	1,029 MW	981 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	899 MW	939 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	887 MW	844 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	968 MW	821 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	990 MW	793 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	987 MW	773 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	959 MW	787 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	904 MW	786 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	936 MW	821 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	1,007 MW	914 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	1,001 MW	969 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	846 MW	1,044 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	927 MW	1,094 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	995 MW	1,126 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	1,039 MW	1,212 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	1,086 MW	1,289 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	1,178 MW	1,171 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	1,149 MW	1,105 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	1,050 MW	1,103 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	1,063 MW	1,092 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	1,095 MW	1,106 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	1,123 MW	1,105 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	1,163 MW	1,082 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	1,086 MW	1,038 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	1,018 MW	987 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	1,116 MW	933 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	1,054 MW	834 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	835 MW	874 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	864 MW	868 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	966 MW	844 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	878 MW	820 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	923 MW	797 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	919 MW	837 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	1,001 MW	929 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	1,056 MW	1,019 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	944 MW	1,070 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	882 MW	1,112 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	853 MW	1,109 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	866 MW	1,118 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	860 MW	1,127 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	942 MW	1,137 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	922 MW	1,119 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	897 MW	1,105 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ee_2026,
  title = {{Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/

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Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related