Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 51% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 242 MW (48.1%) too high at 23 Aug 2026, 00:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Riga).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 51% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 242 MW (48.1%) too high at 23 Aug 2026, 00:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Latvia came 36 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 48 MW, against average demand of 795 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 58% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026Average error6.2%
Bias+1.8%
Hours within 5%51%
Worst miss242 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 242 MW (48.1%) too high at 23 Aug 2026, 00:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 745 MW, reported 503 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00)Data to 2026-09-20
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept, 16:00 | 797 MW | 862 MW |
| 13 Sept, 17:00 | 808 MW | 843 MW |
| 13 Sept, 18:00 | 799 MW | 814 MW |
| 13 Sept, 19:00 | 791 MW | 830 MW |
| 13 Sept, 20:00 | 797 MW | 817 MW |
| 13 Sept, 21:00 | 800 MW | 800 MW |
| 13 Sept, 22:00 | 742 MW | 756 MW |
| 13 Sept, 23:00 | 682 MW | 693 MW |
| 14 Sept, 00:00 | 621 MW | 642 MW |
| 14 Sept, 01:00 | 564 MW | 587 MW |
| 14 Sept, 02:00 | 569 MW | 589 MW |
| 14 Sept, 03:00 | 605 MW | 576 MW |
| 14 Sept, 04:00 | 622 MW | 613 MW |
| 14 Sept, 05:00 | 655 MW | 659 MW |
| 14 Sept, 06:00 | 709 MW | 698 MW |
| 14 Sept, 07:00 | 826 MW | 799 MW |
| 14 Sept, 08:00 | 931 MW | 871 MW |
| 14 Sept, 09:00 | 1,032 MW | 919 MW |
| 14 Sept, 10:00 | 1,033 MW | 932 MW |
| 14 Sept, 11:00 | 1,098 MW | 923 MW |
| 14 Sept, 12:00 | 1,031 MW | 917 MW |
| 14 Sept, 13:00 | 1,014 MW | 942 MW |
| 14 Sept, 14:00 | 977 MW | 934 MW |
| 14 Sept, 15:00 | 981 MW | 906 MW |
| 14 Sept, 16:00 | 1,002 MW | 936 MW |
| 14 Sept, 17:00 | 944 MW | 915 MW |
| 14 Sept, 18:00 | 911 MW | 882 MW |
| 14 Sept, 19:00 | 902 MW | 864 MW |
| 14 Sept, 20:00 | 907 MW | 879 MW |
| 14 Sept, 21:00 | 838 MW | 853 MW |
| 14 Sept, 22:00 | 822 MW | 779 MW |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 | 763 MW | 703 MW |
| 15 Sept, 00:00 | 696 MW | 639 MW |
| 15 Sept, 01:00 | 633 MW | 634 MW |
| 15 Sept, 02:00 | 627 MW | 627 MW |
| 15 Sept, 03:00 | 673 MW | 665 MW |
| 15 Sept, 04:00 | 677 MW | 660 MW |
| 15 Sept, 05:00 | 657 MW | 654 MW |
| 15 Sept, 06:00 | 721 MW | 723 MW |
| 15 Sept, 07:00 | 794 MW | 813 MW |
| 15 Sept, 08:00 | 844 MW | 906 MW |
| 15 Sept, 09:00 | 916 MW | 913 MW |
| 15 Sept, 10:00 | 917 MW | 954 MW |
| 15 Sept, 11:00 | 856 MW | 948 MW |
| 15 Sept, 12:00 | 831 MW | 941 MW |
| 15 Sept, 13:00 | 884 MW | 1,010 MW |
| 15 Sept, 14:00 | 898 MW | 1,024 MW |
| 15 Sept, 15:00 | 865 MW | 976 MW |
| 15 Sept, 16:00 | 847 MW | 920 MW |
| 15 Sept, 17:00 | 865 MW | 924 MW |
| 15 Sept, 18:00 | 858 MW | 931 MW |
| 15 Sept, 19:00 | 830 MW | 915 MW |
| 15 Sept, 20:00 | 849 MW | 927 MW |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 | 814 MW | 906 MW |
| 15 Sept, 22:00 | 788 MW | 828 MW |
| 15 Sept, 23:00 | 726 MW | 746 MW |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 | 702 MW | 686 MW |
| 16 Sept, 01:00 | 614 MW | 640 MW |
| 16 Sept, 02:00 | 650 MW | 673 MW |
| 16 Sept, 03:00 | 670 MW | 693 MW |
| 16 Sept, 04:00 | 689 MW | 725 MW |
| 16 Sept, 05:00 | 708 MW | 772 MW |
| 16 Sept, 06:00 | 741 MW | 768 MW |
| 16 Sept, 07:00 | 781 MW | 844 MW |
| 16 Sept, 08:00 | 838 MW | 919 MW |
| 16 Sept, 09:00 | 880 MW | 967 MW |
| 16 Sept, 10:00 | 916 MW | 964 MW |
| 16 Sept, 11:00 | 983 MW | 982 MW |
| 16 Sept, 12:00 | 931 MW | 965 MW |
| 16 Sept, 13:00 | 910 MW | 995 MW |
| 16 Sept, 14:00 | 886 MW | 1,004 MW |
| 16 Sept, 15:00 | 917 MW | 985 MW |
| 16 Sept, 16:00 | 904 MW | 1,000 MW |
| 16 Sept, 17:00 | 891 MW | 977 MW |
| 16 Sept, 18:00 | 890 MW | 926 MW |
| 16 Sept, 19:00 | 910 MW | 925 MW |
| 16 Sept, 20:00 | 880 MW | 932 MW |
| 16 Sept, 21:00 | 821 MW | 909 MW |
| 16 Sept, 22:00 | 797 MW | 834 MW |
| 16 Sept, 23:00 | 750 MW | 765 MW |
| 17 Sept, 00:00 | 708 MW | 726 MW |
| 17 Sept, 01:00 | 671 MW | 706 MW |
| 17 Sept, 02:00 | 643 MW | 672 MW |
| 17 Sept, 03:00 | 629 MW | 637 MW |
| 17 Sept, 04:00 | 680 MW | 699 MW |
| 17 Sept, 05:00 | 720 MW | 744 MW |
| 17 Sept, 06:00 | 708 MW | 773 MW |
| 17 Sept, 07:00 | 809 MW | 864 MW |
| 17 Sept, 08:00 | 899 MW | 921 MW |
| 17 Sept, 09:00 | 958 MW | 960 MW |
| 17 Sept, 10:00 | 950 MW | 961 MW |
| 17 Sept, 11:00 | 918 MW | 956 MW |
| 17 Sept, 12:00 | 990 MW | 975 MW |
| 17 Sept, 13:00 | 1,066 MW | 1,054 MW |
| 17 Sept, 14:00 | 1,087 MW | 1,072 MW |
| 17 Sept, 15:00 | 1,054 MW | 1,005 MW |
| 17 Sept, 16:00 | 929 MW | 968 MW |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 | 873 MW | 921 MW |
| 17 Sept, 18:00 | 853 MW | 917 MW |
| 17 Sept, 19:00 | 839 MW | 906 MW |
| 17 Sept, 20:00 | 832 MW | 920 MW |
| 17 Sept, 21:00 | 829 MW | 897 MW |
| 17 Sept, 22:00 | 785 MW | 820 MW |
| 17 Sept, 23:00 | 734 MW | 755 MW |
| 18 Sept, 00:00 | 691 MW | 698 MW |
| 18 Sept, 01:00 | 638 MW | 667 MW |
| 18 Sept, 02:00 | 663 MW | 709 MW |
| 18 Sept, 03:00 | 610 MW | 688 MW |
| 18 Sept, 04:00 | 590 MW | 627 MW |
| 18 Sept, 05:00 | 624 MW | 668 MW |
| 18 Sept, 06:00 | 722 MW | 756 MW |
| 18 Sept, 07:00 | 819 MW | 853 MW |
| 18 Sept, 08:00 | 856 MW | 926 MW |
| 18 Sept, 09:00 | 857 MW | 949 MW |
| 18 Sept, 10:00 | 854 MW | 939 MW |
| 18 Sept, 11:00 | 904 MW | 939 MW |
| 18 Sept, 12:00 | 843 MW | 922 MW |
| 18 Sept, 13:00 | 930 MW | 918 MW |
| 18 Sept, 14:00 | 956 MW | 992 MW |
| 18 Sept, 15:00 | 982 MW | 984 MW |
| 18 Sept, 16:00 | 929 MW | 930 MW |
| 18 Sept, 17:00 | 941 MW | 921 MW |
| 18 Sept, 18:00 | 839 MW | 917 MW |
| 18 Sept, 19:00 | 841 MW | 925 MW |
| 18 Sept, 20:00 | 904 MW | 944 MW |
| 18 Sept, 21:00 | 867 MW | 909 MW |
| 18 Sept, 22:00 | 805 MW | 840 MW |
| 18 Sept, 23:00 | 741 MW | 791 MW |
| 19 Sept, 00:00 | 676 MW | 735 MW |
| 19 Sept, 01:00 | 647 MW | 700 MW |
| 19 Sept, 02:00 | 621 MW | 703 MW |
| 19 Sept, 03:00 | 630 MW | 692 MW |
| 19 Sept, 04:00 | 640 MW | 689 MW |
| 19 Sept, 05:00 | 621 MW | 705 MW |
| 19 Sept, 06:00 | 647 MW | 733 MW |
| 19 Sept, 07:00 | 685 MW | 779 MW |
| 19 Sept, 08:00 | 759 MW | 847 MW |
| 19 Sept, 09:00 | 820 MW | 905 MW |
| 19 Sept, 10:00 | 821 MW | 931 MW |
| 19 Sept, 11:00 | 839 MW | 932 MW |
| 19 Sept, 12:00 | 911 MW | 992 MW |
| 19 Sept, 13:00 | 883 MW | 997 MW |
| 19 Sept, 14:00 | 851 MW | 938 MW |
| 19 Sept, 15:00 | 829 MW | 925 MW |
| 19 Sept, 16:00 | 837 MW | 923 MW |
| 19 Sept, 17:00 | 830 MW | 931 MW |
| 19 Sept, 18:00 | 829 MW | 919 MW |
| 19 Sept, 19:00 | 810 MW | 891 MW |
| 19 Sept, 20:00 | 824 MW | 903 MW |
| 19 Sept, 21:00 | 817 MW | 910 MW |
| 19 Sept, 22:00 | 774 MW | 870 MW |
| 19 Sept, 23:00 | 706 MW | 809 MW |
| 20 Sept, 00:00 | 654 MW | 758 MW |
| 20 Sept, 01:00 | 621 MW | 690 MW |
| 20 Sept, 02:00 | 585 MW | 676 MW |
| 20 Sept, 03:00 | 574 MW | 669 MW |
| 20 Sept, 04:00 | 573 MW | 668 MW |
| 20 Sept, 05:00 | 588 MW | 675 MW |
| 20 Sept, 06:00 | 609 MW | 693 MW |
| 20 Sept, 07:00 | 636 MW | 733 MW |
| 20 Sept, 08:00 | 707 MW | 792 MW |
| 20 Sept, 09:00 | 772 MW | 848 MW |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 | 837 MW | 892 MW |
| 20 Sept, 11:00 | 854 MW | 902 MW |
| 20 Sept, 12:00 | 786 MW | 887 MW |
| 20 Sept, 13:00 | 840 MW | 937 MW |
| 20 Sept, 14:00 | 883 MW | 938 MW |
| 20 Sept, 15:00 | 857 MW | 894 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.