Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 5.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 55% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Riga).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 5.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 55% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Latvia came 36 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 49 MW, against average demand of 883 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 65% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026

Average error5.5%

Bias+2.5%

Hours within 5%55%

Worst miss1,049 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,055 MW, reported 2,104 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Latvia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 16:00	944 MW	1,032 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	1,000 MW	1,039 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	1,024 MW	1,034 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	1,007 MW	1,023 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	964 MW	981 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	931 MW	949 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	845 MW	872 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	792 MW	800 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	766 MW	761 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	712 MW	708 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	659 MW	697 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	674 MW	699 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	708 MW	703 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	822 MW	837 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	912 MW	915 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	875 MW	925 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	988 MW	1,006 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	1,035 MW	1,038 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	1,004 MW	1,029 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	957 MW	1,002 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	1,035 MW	997 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	1,056 MW	1,094 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	1,081 MW	1,091 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	1,003 MW	1,011 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	952 MW	996 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	953 MW	1,017 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	1,018 MW	1,023 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	1,008 MW	999 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	973 MW	970 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	922 MW	928 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	895 MW	859 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	832 MW	789 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	822 MW	733 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	659 MW	725 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	665 MW	719 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	707 MW	767 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	673 MW	759 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	626 MW	702 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	642 MW	735 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	726 MW	766 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	806 MW	805 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	819 MW	845 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	852 MW	875 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	893 MW	906 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	889 MW	922 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	923 MW	925 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	900 MW	908 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	869 MW	873 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	856 MW	889 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	894 MW	928 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	883 MW	938 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	807 MW	932 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	794 MW	901 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	813 MW	862 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	853 MW	814 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	800 MW	762 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	727 MW	717 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	649 MW	710 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	650 MW	673 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	656 MW	652 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	632 MW	643 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	736 MW	771 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	788 MW	812 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	708 MW	748 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	785 MW	795 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	855 MW	835 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	850 MW	866 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	895 MW	899 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	919 MW	916 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	907 MW	925 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	896 MW	916 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	890 MW	912 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	898 MW	926 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	866 MW	946 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	910 MW	963 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	961 MW	952 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	892 MW	924 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	880 MW	876 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	827 MW	814 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	783 MW	749 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	778 MW	715 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	681 MW	708 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	685 MW	697 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	706 MW	699 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	713 MW	703 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	823 MW	837 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	939 MW	915 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	906 MW	925 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	925 MW	1,006 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	1,027 MW	1,038 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	1,062 MW	1,029 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	1,072 MW	1,002 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	1,116 MW	997 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	1,141 MW	1,094 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	1,104 MW	1,091 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	1,121 MW	1,011 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	1,088 MW	996 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	986 MW	1,017 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	1,013 MW	1,023 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	1,013 MW	999 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	982 MW	970 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	933 MW	928 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	838 MW	859 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	774 MW	789 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	718 MW	733 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	752 MW	705 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	774 MW	713 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	809 MW	709 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	857 MW	812 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	786 MW	851 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	825 MW	844 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	904 MW	949 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	913 MW	1,030 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	943 MW	1,059 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	1,059 MW	1,047 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	1,203 MW	1,142 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	1,114 MW	1,133 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	1,131 MW	1,051 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	1,063 MW	1,049 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	1,000 MW	1,053 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	922 MW	1,056 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	1,023 MW	1,067 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	1,042 MW	1,061 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	1,012 MW	1,027 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	994 MW	980 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	915 MW	937 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	798 MW	861 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	808 MW	813 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	785 MW	776 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	881 MW	872 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	804 MW	816 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	744 MW	689 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	714 MW	702 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	730 MW	741 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	862 MW	836 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	900 MW	936 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	973 MW	1,017 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	1,026 MW	1,053 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	1,075 MW	1,036 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	1,113 MW	1,030 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	1,092 MW	1,145 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	1,076 MW	1,177 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	1,053 MW	1,065 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	991 MW	1,053 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	946 MW	1,047 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	956 MW	1,072 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	1,010 MW	1,051 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	1,007 MW	1,021 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	972 MW	990 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	923 MW	932 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	809 MW	868 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	730 MW	799 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	683 MW	769 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	729 MW	803 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	782 MW	799 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	775 MW	774 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	800 MW	798 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	935 MW	947 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	985 MW	1,010 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	955 MW	1,016 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	995 MW	1,044 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	998 MW	1,062 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	1,044 MW	1,061 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	1,016 MW	1,045 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	993 MW	1,079 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	1,096 MW	1,130 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	1,015 MW	1,087 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	895 MW	1,060 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lv_2026,
  title = {{Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

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Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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