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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 21 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 1.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 142 MW (7.5%) too low at 24 Aug 2026, 19:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 1.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 142 MW (7.5%) too low at 24 Aug 2026, 19:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AVA came 2 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 22 MW, against average demand of 1,305 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026
Average error1.6%
Bias-0.0%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss142 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 142 MW (7.5%) too low at 24 Aug 2026, 19:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,749 MW, reported 1,891 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
AVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 13 Sept, 19:0014 Sept, 19:0015 Sept, 19:0016 Sept, 19:0017 Sept, 19:0018 Sept, 19:0019 Sept, 19:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
AVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 19:001,327 MW1,332 MW
13 Sept, 20:001,288 MW1,312 MW
13 Sept, 21:001,227 MW1,253 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,115 MW1,171 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,058 MW1,099 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,008 MW1,039 MW
14 Sept, 01:00989 MW973 MW
14 Sept, 02:00971 MW947 MW
14 Sept, 03:00977 MW966 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,017 MW1,014 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,128 MW1,111 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,252 MW1,234 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,325 MW1,307 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,366 MW1,331 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,373 MW1,346 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,356 MW1,356 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,355 MW1,359 MW
14 Sept, 12:001,363 MW1,369 MW
14 Sept, 13:001,322 MW1,355 MW
14 Sept, 14:001,309 MW1,345 MW
14 Sept, 15:001,312 MW1,335 MW
14 Sept, 16:001,339 MW1,353 MW
14 Sept, 17:001,366 MW1,370 MW
14 Sept, 18:001,367 MW1,369 MW
14 Sept, 19:001,378 MW1,370 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,337 MW1,345 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,258 MW1,281 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,168 MW1,191 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,099 MW1,114 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,045 MW1,082 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,023 MW1,035 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,005 MW1,004 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,012 MW1,010 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,044 MW1,053 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,145 MW1,151 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,271 MW1,274 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,339 MW1,343 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,364 MW1,362 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,365 MW1,362 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,357 MW1,355 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,346 MW1,353 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,331 MW1,359 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,321 MW1,347 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,318 MW1,334 MW
15 Sept, 15:001,317 MW1,332 MW
15 Sept, 16:001,328 MW1,347 MW
15 Sept, 17:001,351 MW1,365 MW
15 Sept, 18:001,357 MW1,362 MW
15 Sept, 19:001,378 MW1,366 MW
15 Sept, 20:001,348 MW1,341 MW
15 Sept, 21:001,264 MW1,282 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,171 MW1,197 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,110 MW1,121 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,058 MW1,049 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,024 MW1,033 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,009 MW1,007 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,014 MW1,013 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,051 MW1,055 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,159 MW1,154 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,279 MW1,278 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,333 MW1,338 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,342 MW1,347 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,338 MW1,342 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,327 MW1,337 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,333 MW1,335 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,346 MW1,343 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,357 MW1,349 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,374 MW1,353 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,390 MW1,358 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,413 MW1,379 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,439 MW1,396 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,429 MW1,394 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,432 MW1,394 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,388 MW1,359 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,296 MW1,284 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,195 MW1,191 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,107 MW1,113 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,059 MW1,045 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,019 MW1,023 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,003 MW1,007 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,001 MW1,009 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,037 MW1,046 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,144 MW1,139 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,247 MW1,256 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,314 MW1,318 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,326 MW1,333 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,332 MW1,335 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,333 MW1,333 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,352 MW1,341 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,364 MW1,356 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,369 MW1,370 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,384 MW1,379 MW
17 Sept, 15:001,389 MW1,392 MW
17 Sept, 16:001,427 MW1,415 MW
17 Sept, 17:001,440 MW1,429 MW
17 Sept, 18:001,425 MW1,422 MW
17 Sept, 19:001,414 MW1,415 MW
17 Sept, 20:001,370 MW1,370 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,282 MW1,289 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,199 MW1,196 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,103 MW1,112 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,058 MW1,008 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,021 MW995 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,007 MW974 MW
18 Sept, 03:00994 MW969 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,023 MW1,000 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,105 MW1,082 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,212 MW1,188 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,287 MW1,261 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,302 MW1,292 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,291 MW1,306 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,301 MW1,316 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,345 MW1,328 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,367 MW1,342 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,382 MW1,355 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,397 MW1,364 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,418 MW1,375 MW
18 Sept, 16:001,441 MW1,400 MW
18 Sept, 17:001,452 MW1,405 MW
18 Sept, 18:001,401 MW1,385 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,375 MW1,365 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,312 MW1,314 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,237 MW1,244 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,157 MW1,171 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,090 MW1,094 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,026 MW981 MW
19 Sept, 01:00992 MW986 MW
19 Sept, 02:00959 MW962 MW
19 Sept, 03:00951 MW953 MW
19 Sept, 04:00967 MW964 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,007 MW994 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,059 MW1,042 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,114 MW1,096 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,172 MW1,148 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,207 MW1,182 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,221 MW1,222 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,242 MW1,237 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,258 MW1,254 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,294 MW1,271 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,329 MW1,293 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,374 MW1,326 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,403 MW1,359 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,424 MW1,372 MW
19 Sept, 18:001,390 MW1,356 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,364 MW1,343 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,295 MW1,290 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,213 MW1,219 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,150 MW1,145 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,075 MW1,077 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,021 MW1,021 MW
20 Sept, 01:00984 MW986 MW
20 Sept, 02:00965 MW955 MW
20 Sept, 03:00964 MW951 MW
20 Sept, 04:00970 MW963 MW
20 Sept, 05:00993 MW990 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,047 MW1,034 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,096 MW1,088 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,163 MW1,149 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,200 MW1,190 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,227 MW1,214 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,257 MW1,242 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,297 MW1,274 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,344 MW1,306 MW
20 Sept, 14:001,386 MW1,336 MW
20 Sept, 15:001,440 MW1,380 MW
20 Sept, 16:001,490 MW1,422 MW
20 Sept, 17:001,518 MW1,453 MW
20 Sept, 18:001,484 MW1,441 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.