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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 179 MW (12.0%) too low at 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 179 MW (12.0%) too low at 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AVA came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 20 MW, against average demand of 1,333 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.5%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%97%
Worst miss179 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 179 MW (12.0%) too low at 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,313 MW, reported 1,492 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
AVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:001,590 MW1,599 MW
29 Oct, 08:001,603 MW1,606 MW
29 Oct, 09:001,574 MW1,594 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,549 MW1,567 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,529 MW1,553 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,496 MW1,535 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,468 MW1,503 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,440 MW1,484 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,424 MW1,469 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,453 MW1,489 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,516 MW1,530 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,552 MW1,556 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,537 MW1,549 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,505 MW1,512 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,440 MW1,450 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,333 MW1,369 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,264 MW1,302 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,227 MW1,233 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,204 MW1,209 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,193 MW1,204 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,205 MW1,217 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,257 MW1,266 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,359 MW1,370 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,505 MW1,513 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,602 MW1,592 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,617 MW1,598 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,582 MW1,570 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,550 MW1,531 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,507 MW1,501 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,477 MW1,469 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,441 MW1,434 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,422 MW1,408 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,406 MW1,392 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,424 MW1,406 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,478 MW1,443 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,482 MW1,463 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,472 MW1,458 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,438 MW1,431 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,359 MW1,386 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,297 MW1,320 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,228 MW1,267 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,187 MW1,197 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,158 MW1,168 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,140 MW1,156 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,144 MW1,161 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,169 MW1,185 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,209 MW1,199 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,279 MW1,285 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,355 MW1,361 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,409 MW1,417 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,437 MW1,429 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,449 MW1,433 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,427 MW1,405 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,382 MW1,390 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,341 MW1,356 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,327 MW1,333 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,332 MW1,324 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,335 MW1,335 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,366 MW1,354 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,346 MW1,407 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,334 MW1,391 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,325 MW1,338 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,292 MW1,265 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,248 MW1,216 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,200 MW1,180 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,130 MW1,151 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,100 MW1,128 MW
1 Nov, 01:00998 MW1,069 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,095 MW1,087 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,087 MW1,089 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,128 MW1,110 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,168 MW1,180 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,241 MW1,221 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,315 MW1,294 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,372 MW1,355 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,393 MW1,383 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,386 MW1,398 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,380 MW1,377 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,374 MW1,363 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,359 MW1,368 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,349 MW1,347 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,378 MW1,381 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,449 MW1,409 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,512 MW1,435 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,492 MW1,461 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,455 MW1,463 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,407 MW1,397 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,341 MW1,289 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,255 MW1,197 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,115 MW1,252 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,158 MW1,098 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,153 MW1,135 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,164 MW1,115 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,208 MW1,190 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,268 MW1,268 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,384 MW1,393 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,508 MW1,552 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,589 MW1,631 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,577 MW1,630 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,534 MW1,592 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,490 MW1,565 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,483 MW1,538 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,457 MW1,522 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,433 MW1,475 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,426 MW1,452 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,448 MW1,454 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,530 MW1,518 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,584 MW1,598 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,575 MW1,589 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,549 MW1,542 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,515 MW1,497 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,437 MW1,425 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,352 MW1,335 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,310 MW1,299 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,255 MW1,219 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,247 MW1,207 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,236 MW1,213 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,247 MW1,218 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,314 MW1,295 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,434 MW1,418 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,588 MW1,573 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,661 MW1,653 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,633 MW1,649 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,604 MW1,614 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,544 MW1,581 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,505 MW1,556 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,476 MW1,539 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,456 MW1,505 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,465 MW1,486 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,482 MW1,492 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,548 MW1,548 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,594 MW1,589 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,573 MW1,571 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,539 MW1,551 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,504 MW1,519 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,429 MW1,452 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,353 MW1,297 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,299 MW1,305 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,262 MW1,232 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,246 MW1,231 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,247 MW1,215 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,265 MW1,228 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,333 MW1,303 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,461 MW1,413 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,593 MW1,578 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,620 MW1,656 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,620 MW1,645 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,587 MW1,643 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,564 MW1,595 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,541 MW1,559 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,511 MW1,534 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,485 MW1,511 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,461 MW1,505 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,475 MW1,518 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,561 MW1,585 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,620 MW1,625 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,605 MW1,611 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,584 MW1,579 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,541 MW1,541 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,447 MW1,468 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,359 MW1,389 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,287 MW1,335 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,245 MW1,209 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,212 MW1,193 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,204 MW1,193 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,214 MW1,199 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,254 MW1,260 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,376 MW1,381 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ava_2026,
  title = {{AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/}
}

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