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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for JEA was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 56% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 255 MW (15.0%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for JEA was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 56% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 255 MW (15.0%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, JEA came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 65 MW, against average demand of 1,422 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 88% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.7%
Bias+4.1%
Hours within 5%56%
Worst miss255 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+55 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 255 MW (15.0%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 1,955 MW, reported 1,700 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
JEA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for JEA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for JEA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:001,440 MW1,515 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,466 MW1,570 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,514 MW1,607 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,527 MW1,643 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,551 MW1,660 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,576 MW1,683 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,580 MW1,708 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,583 MW1,694 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,585 MW1,673 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,597 MW1,663 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,567 MW1,633 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,490 MW1,565 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,393 MW1,483 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,271 MW1,356 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,189 MW1,233 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,123 MW1,153 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,069 MW1,109 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,047 MW1,088 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,066 MW1,121 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,139 MW1,201 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,249 MW1,302 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,314 MW1,340 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,347 MW1,371 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,351 MW1,435 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,398 MW1,491 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,463 MW1,541 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,503 MW1,598 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,510 MW1,630 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,526 MW1,655 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,551 MW1,675 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,554 MW1,702 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,538 MW1,678 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,513 MW1,661 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,518 MW1,635 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,478 MW1,593 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,429 MW1,532 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,365 MW1,453 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,294 MW1,345 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,219 MW1,243 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,166 MW1,164 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,117 MW1,134 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,091 MW1,117 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,072 MW1,105 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,100 MW1,105 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,137 MW1,138 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,143 MW1,202 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,221 MW1,301 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,358 MW1,387 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,466 MW1,475 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,557 MW1,545 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,652 MW1,571 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,717 MW1,637 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,761 MW1,659 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,786 MW1,659 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,784 MW1,655 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,717 MW1,661 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,619 MW1,635 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,562 MW1,589 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,509 MW1,571 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,470 MW1,501 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,400 MW1,431 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,314 MW1,334 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,295 MW1,295 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,171 MW1,164 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,112 MW1,135 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,081 MW1,108 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,073 MW1,104 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,051 MW1,050 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,039 MW1,093 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,073 MW1,203 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,146 MW1,321 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,265 MW1,411 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,368 MW1,478 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,444 MW1,519 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,495 MW1,532 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,518 MW1,528 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,514 MW1,507 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,496 MW1,498 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,480 MW1,514 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,492 MW1,562 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,535 MW1,569 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,559 MW1,558 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,534 MW1,517 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,482 MW1,451 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,398 MW1,355 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,299 MW1,255 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,202 MW1,163 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,125 MW1,135 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,070 MW1,086 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,033 MW1,064 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,029 MW1,091 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,057 MW1,189 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,138 MW1,289 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,267 MW1,325 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,324 MW1,373 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,373 MW1,428 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,426 MW1,478 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,469 MW1,523 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,513 MW1,566 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,552 MW1,584 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,545 MW1,601 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,572 MW1,605 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,602 MW1,617 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,608 MW1,615 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,670 MW1,640 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,706 MW1,620 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,681 MW1,552 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,606 MW1,502 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,512 MW1,453 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,389 MW1,348 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,290 MW1,248 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,202 MW1,284 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,146 MW1,210 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,114 MW1,160 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,110 MW1,137 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,137 MW1,162 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,219 MW1,258 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,349 MW1,368 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,404 MW1,409 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,455 MW1,461 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,515 MW1,531 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,580 MW1,602 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,665 MW1,690 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,694 MW1,739 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,748 MW1,776 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,786 MW1,805 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,793 MW1,810 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,784 MW1,795 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,789 MW1,820 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,813 MW1,781 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,746 MW1,749 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,671 MW1,707 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,577 MW1,633 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,456 MW1,525 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,336 MW1,402 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,209 MW1,314 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,167 MW1,235 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,126 MW1,187 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,090 MW1,163 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,099 MW1,203 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,175 MW1,294 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,306 MW1,387 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,366 MW1,426 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,436 MW1,486 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,549 MW1,567 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,649 MW1,638 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,727 MW1,727 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,787 MW1,762 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,847 MW1,838 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,882 MW1,869 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,859 MW1,880 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,824 MW1,857 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,781 MW1,842 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,806 MW1,826 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,738 MW1,781 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,668 MW1,709 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,574 MW1,642 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,441 MW1,530 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,323 MW1,416 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,229 MW1,338 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,169 MW1,256 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,121 MW1,198 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,088 MW1,168 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,096 MW1,185 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,186 MW1,273 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,319 MW1,370 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,350 MW1,416 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,424 MW1,482 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_jea_2026,
  title = {{JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/}
}

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