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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEPC was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 301 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEPC was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 301 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEPC came 16 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 46 MW, against average demand of 1,530 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 43% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.0%
Bias-0.8%
Hours within 5%84%
Worst miss301 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-14 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 301 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,861 MW, reported 1,560 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
TEPC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 07:002 Nov, 07:003 Nov, 07:004 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:001,431 MW1,392 MW
29 Oct, 08:001,341 MW1,322 MW
29 Oct, 09:001,302 MW1,262 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,249 MW1,257 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,268 MW1,259 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,342 MW1,320 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,376 MW1,395 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,497 MW1,498 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,641 MW1,623 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,779 MW1,720 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,840 MW1,792 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,801 MW1,748 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,751 MW1,695 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,716 MW1,649 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,664 MW1,594 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,582 MW1,505 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,495 MW1,414 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,441 MW1,407 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,402 MW1,378 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,380 MW1,365 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,359 MW1,350 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,381 MW1,363 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,424 MW1,410 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,494 MW1,493 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,529 MW1,498 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,549 MW1,467 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,513 MW1,441 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,501 MW1,442 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,619 MW1,441 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,646 MW1,460 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,601 MW1,488 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,517 MW1,541 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,545 MW1,613 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,607 MW1,615 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,678 MW1,654 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,676 MW1,665 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,626 MW1,609 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,592 MW1,557 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,561 MW1,484 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,479 MW1,424 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,427 MW1,350 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,386 MW1,342 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,356 MW1,328 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,334 MW1,321 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,324 MW1,299 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,325 MW1,300 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,364 MW1,333 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,397 MW1,383 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,446 MW1,366 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,500 MW1,331 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,499 MW1,282 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,389 MW1,249 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,476 MW1,288 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,548 MW1,327 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,548 MW1,374 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,529 MW1,430 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,589 MW1,528 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,648 MW1,600 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,674 MW1,606 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,623 MW1,643 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,585 MW1,595 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,557 MW1,574 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,510 MW1,513 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,436 MW1,449 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,385 MW1,349 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,361 MW1,303 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,331 MW1,291 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,328 MW1,306 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,317 MW1,290 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,312 MW1,285 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,318 MW1,314 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,352 MW1,339 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,380 MW1,344 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,452 MW1,414 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,521 MW1,506 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,587 MW1,544 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,592 MW1,709 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,608 MW1,785 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,560 MW1,861 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,552 MW1,703 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,517 MW1,697 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,490 MW1,724 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,580 MW1,640 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,595 MW1,636 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,555 MW1,584 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,517 MW1,550 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,480 MW1,478 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,422 MW1,391 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,351 MW1,307 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,297 MW1,273 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,235 MW1,288 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,198 MW1,244 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,185 MW1,236 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,191 MW1,263 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,238 MW1,318 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,316 MW1,393 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,299 MW1,343 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,205 MW1,334 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,127 MW1,246 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,085 MW1,173 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,063 MW1,098 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,081 MW1,119 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,125 MW1,156 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,204 MW1,245 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,312 MW1,349 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,442 MW1,491 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,533 MW1,580 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,533 MW1,608 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,504 MW1,561 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,474 MW1,528 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,423 MW1,479 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,345 MW1,396 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,284 MW1,332 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,233 MW1,265 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,201 MW1,245 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,185 MW1,226 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,172 MW1,236 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,212 MW1,283 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,278 MW1,350 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,372 MW1,465 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,354 MW1,380 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,239 MW1,317 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,149 MW1,199 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,088 MW1,101 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,052 MW1,058 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,067 MW1,060 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,135 MW1,109 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,227 MW1,205 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,339 MW1,331 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,470 MW1,480 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,555 MW1,558 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,553 MW1,585 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,519 MW1,547 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,485 MW1,521 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,435 MW1,470 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,361 MW1,385 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,290 MW1,300 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,235 MW1,293 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,197 MW1,235 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,188 MW1,035 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,204 MW1,052 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,228 MW1,111 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,290 MW1,192 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,361 MW1,279 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,360 MW1,230 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,241 MW1,159 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,147 MW1,053 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,109 MW989 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,097 MW945 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,106 MW960 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,155 MW1,031 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,218 MW1,133 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,332 MW1,256 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,462 MW1,406 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,536 MW1,496 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,557 MW1,522 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,532 MW1,487 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,505 MW1,466 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,449 MW1,424 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,370 MW1,350 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,308 MW1,300 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,265 MW1,289 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,231 MW1,249 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,218 MW1,236 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,219 MW1,238 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,232 MW1,271 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,279 MW1,342 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,377 MW1,438 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tepc_2026,
  title = {{TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/}
}

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