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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 21 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 48% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -4.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 222 MW (8.4%) too low at 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 48% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -4.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 222 MW (8.4%) too low at 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PNM came 32 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 95 MW, against average demand of 1,977 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 9% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026
Average error4.9%
Bias-4.4%
Hours within 5%48%
Worst miss222 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-85 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 222 MW (8.4%) too low at 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 2,423 MW, reported 2,645 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 MDT (UTC-06:00)
PNM day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 13 Sept, 20:0014 Sept, 20:0015 Sept, 20:0016 Sept, 20:0017 Sept, 20:0018 Sept, 20:0019 Sept, 20:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
PNM day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 20:002,319 MW2,247 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,191 MW2,118 MW
13 Sept, 22:002,072 MW1,984 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,929 MW1,844 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,830 MW1,734 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,757 MW1,659 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,694 MW1,601 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,655 MW1,560 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,676 MW1,550 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,725 MW1,583 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,804 MW1,656 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,828 MW1,673 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,822 MW1,673 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,830 MW1,702 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,842 MW1,749 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,906 MW1,833 MW
14 Sept, 12:002,030 MW1,942 MW
14 Sept, 13:002,135 MW2,065 MW
14 Sept, 14:002,217 MW2,171 MW
14 Sept, 15:002,308 MW2,260 MW
14 Sept, 16:002,305 MW2,298 MW
14 Sept, 17:002,186 MW2,285 MW
14 Sept, 18:002,089 MW2,236 MW
14 Sept, 19:002,016 MW2,166 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,978 MW2,094 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,902 MW1,976 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,801 MW1,850 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,689 MW1,727 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,610 MW1,637 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,562 MW1,611 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,535 MW1,564 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,516 MW1,531 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,535 MW1,525 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,583 MW1,560 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,669 MW1,635 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,681 MW1,644 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,685 MW1,628 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,677 MW1,643 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,722 MW1,677 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,783 MW1,745 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,790 MW1,832 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,877 MW1,943 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,930 MW2,051 MW
15 Sept, 15:002,006 MW2,148 MW
15 Sept, 16:002,111 MW2,204 MW
15 Sept, 17:002,147 MW2,218 MW
15 Sept, 18:002,129 MW2,186 MW
15 Sept, 19:002,084 MW2,126 MW
15 Sept, 20:002,024 MW2,061 MW
15 Sept, 21:001,937 MW1,944 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,835 MW1,825 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,730 MW1,708 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,660 MW1,616 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,612 MW1,532 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,579 MW1,492 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,566 MW1,472 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,576 MW1,478 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,607 MW1,519 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,695 MW1,594 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,705 MW1,617 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,756 MW1,611 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,791 MW1,621 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,792 MW1,642 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,799 MW1,684 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,756 MW1,752 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,726 MW1,825 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,738 MW1,893 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,808 MW1,953 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,908 MW1,986 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,982 MW1,977 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,988 MW1,951 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,986 MW1,914 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,967 MW1,887 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,893 MW1,809 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,809 MW1,717 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,716 MW1,617 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,632 MW1,539 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,582 MW1,500 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,547 MW1,459 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,526 MW1,431 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,523 MW1,431 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,576 MW1,469 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,654 MW1,542 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,708 MW1,558 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,686 MW1,546 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,677 MW1,551 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,674 MW1,574 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,690 MW1,624 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,757 MW1,699 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,849 MW1,784 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,974 MW1,869 MW
17 Sept, 15:002,064 MW1,941 MW
17 Sept, 16:002,143 MW2,006 MW
17 Sept, 17:002,173 MW2,033 MW
17 Sept, 18:002,167 MW2,021 MW
17 Sept, 19:002,117 MW1,983 MW
17 Sept, 20:002,056 MW1,933 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,960 MW1,838 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,861 MW1,732 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,751 MW1,623 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,650 MW1,537 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,573 MW1,451 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,561 MW1,406 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,539 MW1,378 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,537 MW1,374 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,565 MW1,413 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,630 MW1,488 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,634 MW1,501 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,628 MW1,504 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,637 MW1,515 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,654 MW1,521 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,679 MW1,556 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,760 MW1,600 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,814 MW1,662 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,874 MW1,729 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,941 MW1,785 MW
18 Sept, 16:002,002 MW1,851 MW
18 Sept, 17:002,022 MW1,875 MW
18 Sept, 18:002,008 MW1,859 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,913 MW1,824 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,870 MW1,788 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,799 MW1,721 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,758 MW1,637 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,653 MW1,548 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,556 MW1,474 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,508 MW1,445 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,473 MW1,408 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,441 MW1,380 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,434 MW1,367 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,435 MW1,376 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,462 MW1,405 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,459 MW1,398 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,467 MW1,387 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,461 MW1,391 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,484 MW1,409 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,551 MW1,450 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,630 MW1,512 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,737 MW1,608 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,897 MW1,717 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,915 MW1,815 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,862 MW1,895 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,843 MW1,935 MW
19 Sept, 18:001,864 MW1,930 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,831 MW1,887 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,822 MW1,817 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,756 MW1,725 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,656 MW1,638 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,562 MW1,547 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,496 MW1,469 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,445 MW1,398 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,416 MW1,357 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,405 MW1,331 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,397 MW1,322 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,401 MW1,330 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,425 MW1,358 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,404 MW1,349 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,402 MW1,326 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,404 MW1,332 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,403 MW1,353 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,463 MW1,403 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,530 MW1,474 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,622 MW1,569 MW
20 Sept, 14:001,715 MW1,672 MW
20 Sept, 15:001,818 MW1,774 MW
20 Sept, 16:001,938 MW1,856 MW
20 Sept, 17:002,027 MW1,914 MW
20 Sept, 18:002,061 MW1,917 MW
20 Sept, 19:002,005 MW1,878 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.