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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 54% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -4.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 200 MW (11.9%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 54% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -4.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 200 MW (11.9%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PNM came 34 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 76 MW, against average demand of 1,556 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 2% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.9%
Bias-4.9%
Hours within 5%54%
Worst miss200 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-76 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 200 MW (11.9%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 1,485 MW, reported 1,685 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
PNM day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 08:0030 Oct, 08:0031 Oct, 08:001 Nov, 07:002 Nov, 07:003 Nov, 07:004 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 08:001,611 MW1,509 MW
29 Oct, 09:001,563 MW1,443 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,485 MW1,396 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,442 MW1,376 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,424 MW1,377 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,439 MW1,416 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,504 MW1,469 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,551 MW1,538 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,608 MW1,610 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,656 MW1,662 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,712 MW1,703 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,692 MW1,701 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,675 MW1,670 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,624 MW1,613 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,563 MW1,542 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,493 MW1,463 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,440 MW1,401 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,397 MW1,349 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,379 MW1,328 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,382 MW1,319 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,399 MW1,335 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,445 MW1,387 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,552 MW1,479 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,605 MW1,536 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,610 MW1,517 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,551 MW1,468 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,471 MW1,417 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,455 MW1,389 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,482 MW1,377 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,506 MW1,399 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,549 MW1,434 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,571 MW1,478 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,577 MW1,548 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,636 MW1,610 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,684 MW1,653 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,670 MW1,651 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,660 MW1,624 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,638 MW1,578 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,578 MW1,531 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,514 MW1,464 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,468 MW1,404 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,415 MW1,360 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,386 MW1,338 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,383 MW1,325 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,399 MW1,326 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,422 MW1,347 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,464 MW1,390 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,498 MW1,438 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,501 MW1,447 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,482 MW1,412 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,440 MW1,367 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,385 MW1,338 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,367 MW1,322 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,371 MW1,324 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,409 MW1,336 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,487 MW1,377 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,564 MW1,454 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,617 MW1,528 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,649 MW1,592 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,620 MW1,601 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,601 MW1,566 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,567 MW1,524 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,524 MW1,483 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,479 MW1,426 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,450 MW1,376 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,421 MW1,384 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,400 MW1,365 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,387 MW1,365 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,383 MW1,357 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,390 MW1,363 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,406 MW1,390 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,450 MW1,416 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,482 MW1,406 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,516 MW1,403 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,481 MW1,397 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,514 MW1,380 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,601 MW1,401 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,619 MW1,441 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,634 MW1,456 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,660 MW1,484 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,688 MW1,520 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,740 MW1,591 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,806 MW1,675 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,790 MW1,688 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,746 MW1,666 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,697 MW1,638 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,606 MW1,590 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,545 MW1,523 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,496 MW1,455 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,477 MW1,423 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,447 MW1,405 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,415 MW1,390 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,445 MW1,392 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,485 MW1,417 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,552 MW1,486 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,636 MW1,571 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,654 MW1,586 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,681 MW1,529 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,625 MW1,490 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,613 MW1,464 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,621 MW1,450 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,630 MW1,448 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,636 MW1,467 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,651 MW1,507 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,716 MW1,565 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,774 MW1,641 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,844 MW1,703 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,848 MW1,704 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,825 MW1,686 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,762 MW1,673 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,711 MW1,616 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,645 MW1,543 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,569 MW1,483 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,519 MW1,450 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,502 MW1,420 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,501 MW1,407 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,510 MW1,411 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,539 MW1,441 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,592 MW1,515 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,664 MW1,609 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,623 MW1,609 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,566 MW1,519 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,486 MW1,444 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,437 MW1,394 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,420 MW1,369 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,410 MW1,355 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,430 MW1,377 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,477 MW1,427 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,560 MW1,509 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,674 MW1,603 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,744 MW1,693 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,753 MW1,713 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,733 MW1,702 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,685 MW1,683 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,647 MW1,621 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,586 MW1,553 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,522 MW1,494 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,475 MW1,466 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,465 MW1,435 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,456 MW1,424 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,455 MW1,423 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,489 MW1,449 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,571 MW1,523 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,651 MW1,614 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,601 MW1,607 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,545 MW1,532 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,486 MW1,460 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,446 MW1,407 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,423 MW1,384 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,437 MW1,379 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,466 MW1,403 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,518 MW1,455 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,590 MW1,534 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,676 MW1,627 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,750 MW1,710 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,751 MW1,732 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,738 MW1,720 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,714 MW1,700 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,654 MW1,645 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,602 MW1,577 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,530 MW1,510 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,487 MW1,455 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,468 MW1,430 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,463 MW1,418 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,485 MW1,418 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,525 MW1,449 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,589 MW1,525 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,674 MW1,617 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pnm_2026,
  title = {{PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/}
}

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