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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for NWMT was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 255 MW (23.6%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for NWMT was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 255 MW (23.6%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, NWMT came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 25 MW, against average demand of 1,275 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 38% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.9%
Bias-0.9%
Hours within 5%92%
Worst miss255 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-12 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 255 MW (23.6%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 1,336 MW, reported 1,081 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
NWMT day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NWMT over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 08:0030 Oct, 08:0031 Oct, 08:001 Nov, 07:002 Nov, 07:003 Nov, 07:004 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NWMT over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 08:001,481 MW1,449 MW
29 Oct, 09:001,463 MW1,418 MW
29 Oct, 10:001,423 MW1,383 MW
29 Oct, 11:001,369 MW1,349 MW
29 Oct, 12:001,331 MW1,323 MW
29 Oct, 13:001,317 MW1,301 MW
29 Oct, 14:001,290 MW1,289 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,275 MW1,276 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,291 MW1,296 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,347 MW1,329 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,398 MW1,390 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,417 MW1,404 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,390 MW1,381 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,356 MW1,334 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,292 MW1,269 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,226 MW1,208 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,201 MW1,202 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,169 MW1,176 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,169 MW1,176 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,176 MW1,175 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,176 MW1,196 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,206 MW1,249 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,329 MW1,306 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,397 MW1,387 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,434 MW1,402 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,437 MW1,391 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,430 MW1,369 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,421 MW1,344 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,392 MW1,330 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,356 MW1,313 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,325 MW1,301 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,308 MW1,291 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,337 MW1,295 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,365 MW1,327 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,391 MW1,376 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,363 MW1,379 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,348 MW1,348 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,317 MW1,310 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,280 MW1,259 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,221 MW1,207 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,196 MW1,193 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,164 MW1,171 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,148 MW1,165 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,156 MW1,158 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,157 MW1,171 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,177 MW1,195 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,224 MW1,235 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,280 MW1,287 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,329 MW1,325 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,366 MW1,330 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,394 MW1,317 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,378 MW1,293 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,381 MW1,269 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,343 MW1,242 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,304 MW1,226 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,319 MW1,229 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,321 MW1,240 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,320 MW1,284 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,351 MW1,342 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,314 MW1,345 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,287 MW1,320 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,274 MW1,284 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,218 MW1,236 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,194 MW1,186 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,158 MW1,158 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,145 MW1,131 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,133 MW1,116 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,136 MW1,121 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,141 MW1,123 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,155 MW1,136 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,192 MW1,170 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,216 MW1,216 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,283 MW1,254 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,331 MW1,289 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,368 MW1,306 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,383 MW1,301 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,397 MW1,296 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,409 MW1,299 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,397 MW1,299 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,411 MW1,309 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,424 MW1,324 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,466 MW1,381 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,518 MW1,456 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,505 MW1,467 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,459 MW1,440 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,422 MW1,409 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,358 MW1,359 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,286 MW1,277 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,213 MW1,223 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,183 MW1,175 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,169 MW1,149 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,166 MW1,144 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,161 MW1,153 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,188 MW1,173 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,230 MW1,234 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,347 MW1,340 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,439 MW1,410 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,452 MW1,411 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,431 MW1,400 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,413 MW1,385 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,385 MW1,374 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,393 MW1,372 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,367 MW1,366 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,360 MW1,367 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,367 MW1,369 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,406 MW1,423 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,475 MW1,495 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,494 MW1,502 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,457 MW1,471 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,428 MW1,439 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,370 MW1,385 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,292 MW1,308 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,232 MW1,249 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,212 MW1,213 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,203 MW1,180 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,178 MW1,190 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,200 MW1,195 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,217 MW1,220 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,289 MW1,287 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,397 MW1,400 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,470 MW1,464 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,460 MW1,453 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,419 MW1,414 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,372 MW1,375 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,337 MW1,341 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,323 MW1,318 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,304 MW1,306 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,291 MW1,303 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,295 MW1,305 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,340 MW1,363 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,422 MW1,436 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,444 MW1,447 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,428 MW1,424 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,405 MW1,400 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,349 MW1,353 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,289 MW1,278 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,229 MW1,220 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,196 MW1,206 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,186 MW1,178 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,177 MW1,182 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,185 MW1,189 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,209 MW1,216 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,282 MW1,276 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,396 MW1,385 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,440 MW1,450 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,416 MW1,439 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,382 MW1,401 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,361 MW1,363 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,339 MW1,331 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,305 MW1,309 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,296 MW1,300 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,291 MW1,297 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,310 MW1,301 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,354 MW1,355 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,417 MW1,433 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,432 MW1,442 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,412 MW1,417 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,383 MW1,394 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,329 MW1,348 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,269 MW1,272 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,213 MW1,215 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,193 MW1,184 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,181 MW1,172 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,183 MW1,175 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,200 MW1,189 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,226 MW1,217 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,286 MW1,285 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,416 MW1,394 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nwmt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nwmt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_nwmt_2026,
  title = {{NWMT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nwmt/}
}

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