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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AZPS was off by 13.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 714 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 15% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,894 MW (164.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AZPS was off by 13.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 714 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 15% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,894 MW (164.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AZPS came 46 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 601 MW, against average demand of 4,521 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 18% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

714 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error13.3%
Bias-9.4%
Hours within 5%15%
Worst miss3,894 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-472 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 3,894 MW (164.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 6,255 MW, reported 2,361 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
AZPS day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AZPS over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 29 Oct, 06:0030 Oct, 06:0031 Oct, 06:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AZPS over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 06:004,295 MW3,816 MW
29 Oct, 07:004,214 MW3,690 MW
29 Oct, 08:003,791 MW3,562 MW
29 Oct, 09:003,761 MW3,461 MW
29 Oct, 10:003,558 MW3,492 MW
29 Oct, 11:003,406 MW3,613 MW
29 Oct, 12:003,638 MW3,792 MW
29 Oct, 13:003,894 MW4,168 MW
29 Oct, 14:003,663 MW4,456 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,068 MW4,652 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,253 MW4,774 MW
29 Oct, 17:005,034 MW4,763 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,794 MW4,716 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,940 MW4,596 MW
29 Oct, 20:005,066 MW4,380 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,794 MW4,152 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,300 MW3,913 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,265 MW3,762 MW
30 Oct, 00:004,265 MW3,731 MW
30 Oct, 01:004,063 MW3,674 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,072 MW3,671 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,282 MW3,718 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,143 MW3,832 MW
30 Oct, 05:004,168 MW3,985 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,188 MW3,933 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,083 MW3,883 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,107 MW3,728 MW
30 Oct, 09:004,076 MW3,692 MW
30 Oct, 10:004,181 MW3,663 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,841 MW3,665 MW
30 Oct, 12:003,579 MW3,718 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,719 MW3,704 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,138 MW3,752 MW
30 Oct, 15:004,441 MW3,797 MW
30 Oct, 16:004,316 MW3,835 MW
30 Oct, 17:004,631 MW4,069 MW
30 Oct, 18:004,544 MW4,069 MW
30 Oct, 19:004,609 MW3,858 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,421 MW3,781 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,364 MW3,754 MW
30 Oct, 22:004,188 MW3,547 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,216 MW3,298 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,109 MW3,188 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,993 MW3,093 MW
31 Oct, 02:004,029 MW3,166 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,010 MW3,114 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,995 MW3,223 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,071 MW3,343 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,081 MW3,444 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,047 MW3,334 MW
31 Oct, 08:003,562 MW3,264 MW
31 Oct, 09:003,568 MW3,194 MW
31 Oct, 10:003,936 MW3,241 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,086 MW3,220 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,001 MW3,405 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,090 MW3,676 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,052 MW3,835 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,361 MW4,090 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,347 MW4,248 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,506 MW4,194 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,549 MW4,033 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,521 MW4,053 MW
31 Oct, 20:004,463 MW3,955 MW
31 Oct, 21:004,437 MW3,751 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,208 MW3,506 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,144 MW3,443 MW
1 Nov, 00:004,074 MW3,248 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,218 MW3,166 MW
1 Nov, 02:004,118 MW3,072 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,993 MW3,102 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,843 MW3,160 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,960 MW3,300 MW
1 Nov, 06:004,087 MW3,398 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,220 MW3,375 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,199 MW3,264 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,204 MW3,514 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,069 MW3,584 MW
1 Nov, 11:003,976 MW3,668 MW
1 Nov, 12:003,801 MW3,765 MW
1 Nov, 13:003,373 MW3,898 MW
1 Nov, 14:003,626 MW3,935 MW
1 Nov, 15:003,930 MW3,999 MW
1 Nov, 16:004,265 MW4,100 MW
1 Nov, 17:004,551 MW4,221 MW
1 Nov, 18:004,951 MW4,178 MW
1 Nov, 19:004,998 MW4,040 MW
1 Nov, 20:004,913 MW3,888 MW
1 Nov, 21:004,783 MW3,684 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,359 MW3,461 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,208 MW3,450 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,116 MW3,485 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,121 MW3,417 MW
2 Nov, 02:003,945 MW3,397 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,870 MW3,483 MW
2 Nov, 04:004,041 MW3,648 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,141 MW3,880 MW
2 Nov, 06:004,422 MW3,875 MW
2 Nov, 07:004,202 MW3,631 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,697 MW3,287 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,118 MW3,045 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,770 MW2,951 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,884 MW2,859 MW
2 Nov, 12:003,020 MW3,011 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,867 MW3,139 MW
2 Nov, 14:003,112 MW3,508 MW
2 Nov, 15:003,434 MW3,783 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,951 MW4,116 MW
2 Nov, 17:004,462 MW4,183 MW
2 Nov, 18:004,537 MW4,149 MW
2 Nov, 19:004,692 MW4,085 MW
2 Nov, 20:004,757 MW3,973 MW
2 Nov, 21:004,743 MW3,759 MW
2 Nov, 22:004,511 MW3,606 MW
2 Nov, 23:004,249 MW3,429 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,021 MW3,474 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,968 MW3,400 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,945 MW3,390 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,013 MW3,463 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,053 MW3,609 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,031 MW3,888 MW
3 Nov, 06:004,218 MW3,919 MW
3 Nov, 07:004,302 MW3,642 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,735 MW3,279 MW
3 Nov, 09:003,024 MW3,043 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,732 MW2,856 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,795 MW2,766 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,727 MW2,934 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,976 MW3,136 MW
3 Nov, 14:003,323 MW3,487 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,687 MW3,779 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,883 MW4,118 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,482 MW4,195 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,580 MW4,201 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,735 MW4,145 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,558 MW3,991 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,391 MW3,770 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,100 MW3,581 MW
3 Nov, 23:003,818 MW3,460 MW
4 Nov, 00:003,705 MW3,475 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,792 MW3,411 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,829 MW3,399 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,878 MW3,453 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,972 MW3,630 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,129 MW3,869 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,529 MW3,859 MW
4 Nov, 07:004,414 MW3,608 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,735 MW3,271 MW
4 Nov, 09:003,149 MW2,997 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,996 MW2,870 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,773 MW2,871 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,898 MW3,043 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,135 MW3,251 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,710 MW3,608 MW
4 Nov, 15:003,832 MW3,886 MW
4 Nov, 16:004,001 MW4,166 MW
4 Nov, 17:004,576 MW4,238 MW
4 Nov, 18:004,846 MW4,225 MW
4 Nov, 19:004,891 MW4,142 MW
4 Nov, 20:004,844 MW4,021 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,734 MW3,777 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,465 MW3,604 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,095 MW3,481 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,950 MW3,494 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,827 MW3,473 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,952 MW3,464 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,980 MW3,515 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,136 MW3,693 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,369 MW3,945 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (714 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/azps/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/azps/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_azps_2026,
  title = {{AZPS Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/azps/}
}

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