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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for NEVP was off by 10.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 28% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,672 MW (30.5%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for NEVP was off by 10.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 28% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -9.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,672 MW (30.5%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, NEVP came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 451 MW, against average demand of 4,437 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 6% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error10.0%
Bias-9.8%
Hours within 5%28%
Worst miss1,672 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-439 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,672 MW (30.5%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 3,815 MW, reported 5,487 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
NEVP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NEVP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NEVP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:004,126 MW3,841 MW
29 Oct, 08:004,285 MW3,767 MW
29 Oct, 09:004,673 MW3,623 MW
29 Oct, 10:004,606 MW3,561 MW
29 Oct, 11:004,694 MW3,581 MW
29 Oct, 12:004,453 MW3,563 MW
29 Oct, 13:004,520 MW3,679 MW
29 Oct, 14:004,441 MW3,845 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,764 MW4,031 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,695 MW4,268 MW
29 Oct, 17:004,685 MW4,333 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,749 MW4,475 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,676 MW4,372 MW
29 Oct, 20:004,634 MW4,283 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,401 MW4,149 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,261 MW3,963 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,096 MW3,778 MW
30 Oct, 00:003,975 MW3,636 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,856 MW3,558 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,757 MW3,477 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,707 MW3,459 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,736 MW3,476 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,837 MW3,627 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,002 MW3,778 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,110 MW3,842 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,147 MW3,833 MW
30 Oct, 09:004,441 MW3,837 MW
30 Oct, 10:004,549 MW3,716 MW
30 Oct, 11:004,649 MW3,649 MW
30 Oct, 12:004,705 MW3,653 MW
30 Oct, 13:004,591 MW3,680 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,593 MW3,815 MW
30 Oct, 15:004,896 MW4,009 MW
30 Oct, 16:004,363 MW4,167 MW
30 Oct, 17:004,467 MW4,191 MW
30 Oct, 18:004,546 MW4,274 MW
30 Oct, 19:004,486 MW4,206 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,378 MW4,135 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,265 MW4,056 MW
30 Oct, 22:004,127 MW3,917 MW
30 Oct, 23:003,982 MW3,752 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,881 MW3,617 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,780 MW3,534 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,703 MW3,416 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,649 MW3,394 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,641 MW3,406 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,677 MW3,439 MW
31 Oct, 06:003,763 MW3,578 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,797 MW3,495 MW
31 Oct, 08:004,082 MW3,507 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,420 MW3,535 MW
31 Oct, 10:004,609 MW3,458 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,621 MW3,477 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,597 MW3,513 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,414 MW3,456 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,361 MW3,593 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,208 MW3,689 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,351 MW3,827 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,424 MW3,905 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,427 MW3,959 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,316 MW3,958 MW
31 Oct, 20:004,249 MW3,942 MW
31 Oct, 21:004,181 MW3,877 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,110 MW3,754 MW
31 Oct, 23:003,979 MW3,628 MW
1 Nov, 00:003,829 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:003,737 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 02:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 03:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 04:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 05:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 06:003,709 MWn/a
1 Nov, 07:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 08:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 09:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 10:00n/an/a
1 Nov, 11:004,597 MWn/a
1 Nov, 12:004,414 MWn/a
1 Nov, 13:004,361 MWn/a
1 Nov, 14:004,208 MWn/a
1 Nov, 15:004,351 MWn/a
1 Nov, 16:004,424 MWn/a
1 Nov, 17:004,427 MWn/a
1 Nov, 18:004,316 MWn/a
1 Nov, 19:004,249 MWn/a
1 Nov, 20:004,181 MWn/a
1 Nov, 21:004,110 MWn/a
1 Nov, 22:003,979 MWn/a
1 Nov, 23:003,829 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:003,745 MW2,901 MW
2 Nov, 01:003,670 MW2,896 MW
2 Nov, 02:003,626 MW2,842 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,634 MW2,876 MW
2 Nov, 04:003,701 MW2,895 MW
2 Nov, 05:003,859 MW2,976 MW
2 Nov, 06:003,979 MW3,286 MW
2 Nov, 07:004,162 MW3,215 MW
2 Nov, 08:004,671 MW3,240 MW
2 Nov, 09:004,692 MW3,105 MW
2 Nov, 10:004,571 MW3,126 MW
2 Nov, 11:004,503 MW3,137 MW
2 Nov, 12:004,270 MW3,240 MW
2 Nov, 13:004,276 MW3,338 MW
2 Nov, 14:004,195 MW3,466 MW
2 Nov, 15:004,346 MW3,485 MW
2 Nov, 16:004,441 MW3,684 MW
2 Nov, 17:004,634 MW3,876 MW
2 Nov, 18:004,572 MW3,977 MW
2 Nov, 19:004,468 MW3,857 MW
2 Nov, 20:004,368 MW3,740 MW
2 Nov, 21:004,218 MW3,614 MW
2 Nov, 22:004,045 MW3,444 MW
2 Nov, 23:003,893 MW3,265 MW
3 Nov, 00:003,775 MW3,486 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,696 MW3,436 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,643 MW3,362 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,629 MW3,337 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,695 MW3,337 MW
3 Nov, 05:003,862 MW3,486 MW
3 Nov, 06:003,962 MW3,686 MW
3 Nov, 07:004,201 MW3,634 MW
3 Nov, 08:004,436 MW3,625 MW
3 Nov, 09:004,329 MW3,539 MW
3 Nov, 10:004,206 MW3,516 MW
3 Nov, 11:004,711 MW3,483 MW
3 Nov, 12:004,341 MW3,534 MW
3 Nov, 13:004,649 MW3,553 MW
3 Nov, 14:004,556 MW3,682 MW
3 Nov, 15:004,524 MW3,747 MW
3 Nov, 16:004,739 MW4,007 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,566 MW4,276 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,539 MW4,410 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,472 MW4,328 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,468 MW4,230 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,260 MW4,096 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,078 MW3,898 MW
3 Nov, 23:003,896 MW3,765 MW
4 Nov, 00:003,837 MW3,333 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,736 MW3,220 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,684 MW3,169 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,669 MW3,169 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,720 MW3,192 MW
4 Nov, 05:003,881 MW3,310 MW
4 Nov, 06:003,996 MW3,466 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,992 MW3,485 MW
4 Nov, 08:004,509 MW3,436 MW
4 Nov, 09:004,552 MW3,331 MW
4 Nov, 10:004,527 MW3,323 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,304 MW3,311 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,373 MW3,360 MW
4 Nov, 13:004,308 MW3,386 MW
4 Nov, 14:004,199 MW3,449 MW
4 Nov, 15:004,243 MW3,610 MW
4 Nov, 16:004,321 MW3,872 MW
4 Nov, 17:004,570 MW4,102 MW
4 Nov, 18:004,523 MW4,253 MW
4 Nov, 19:004,456 MW4,146 MW
4 Nov, 20:004,365 MW4,102 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,227 MW3,953 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,041 MW3,797 MW
4 Nov, 23:003,869 MW3,686 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,773 MW3,558 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,698 MW3,501 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,654 MW3,462 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,665 MW3,434 MW
5 Nov, 04:003,732 MW3,471 MW
5 Nov, 05:003,894 MW3,644 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_nevp_2026,
  title = {{NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/}
}

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