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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 21 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 24.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,266 MW (39.7%) too low at 22 Aug 2026, 13:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 24.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,266 MW (39.7%) too low at 22 Aug 2026, 13:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PSCO came 51 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,415 MW, against average demand of 5,670 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026
Average error24.2%
Bias-24.2%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss3,266 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,415 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 3,266 MW (39.7%) too low at 22 Aug 2026, 13:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 4,956 MW, reported 8,222 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 MDT (UTC-06:00)
PSCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 13 Sept, 20:0014 Sept, 20:0015 Sept, 20:0016 Sept, 20:0017 Sept, 20:0018 Sept, 20:0019 Sept, 20:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
PSCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 20:006,926 MW5,188 MW
13 Sept, 21:006,446 MW4,886 MW
13 Sept, 22:005,793 MW4,499 MW
13 Sept, 23:005,341 MW4,036 MW
14 Sept, 00:004,868 MW3,763 MW
14 Sept, 01:004,860 MW3,553 MW
14 Sept, 02:004,637 MW3,433 MW
14 Sept, 03:004,565 MW3,345 MW
14 Sept, 04:004,589 MW3,392 MW
14 Sept, 05:004,695 MW3,561 MW
14 Sept, 06:005,076 MW3,765 MW
14 Sept, 07:005,552 MW3,986 MW
14 Sept, 08:005,781 MW4,019 MW
14 Sept, 09:006,156 MW4,213 MW
14 Sept, 10:006,330 MW4,278 MW
14 Sept, 11:006,545 MW4,416 MW
14 Sept, 12:006,670 MW4,686 MW
14 Sept, 13:006,708 MW4,960 MW
14 Sept, 14:006,575 MW5,226 MW
14 Sept, 15:006,898 MW5,374 MW
14 Sept, 16:006,907 MW5,484 MW
14 Sept, 17:006,640 MW5,424 MW
14 Sept, 18:006,358 MW5,330 MW
14 Sept, 19:006,148 MW5,188 MW
14 Sept, 20:005,900 MW4,887 MW
14 Sept, 21:005,692 MW4,579 MW
14 Sept, 22:005,421 MW4,281 MW
14 Sept, 23:004,919 MW3,866 MW
15 Sept, 00:004,488 MW3,710 MW
15 Sept, 01:004,558 MW3,475 MW
15 Sept, 02:004,383 MW3,365 MW
15 Sept, 03:004,434 MW3,289 MW
15 Sept, 04:004,484 MW3,338 MW
15 Sept, 05:004,657 MW3,462 MW
15 Sept, 06:004,666 MW3,603 MW
15 Sept, 07:004,812 MW3,674 MW
15 Sept, 08:005,122 MW3,636 MW
15 Sept, 09:005,052 MW3,661 MW
15 Sept, 10:004,844 MW3,575 MW
15 Sept, 11:005,052 MW3,653 MW
15 Sept, 12:005,410 MW3,817 MW
15 Sept, 13:005,748 MW4,023 MW
15 Sept, 14:005,675 MW4,321 MW
15 Sept, 15:005,639 MW4,535 MW
15 Sept, 16:005,824 MW4,706 MW
15 Sept, 17:005,844 MW4,755 MW
15 Sept, 18:005,469 MW4,742 MW
15 Sept, 19:005,361 MW4,672 MW
15 Sept, 20:005,281 MW4,488 MW
15 Sept, 21:004,983 MW4,303 MW
15 Sept, 22:004,635 MW4,024 MW
15 Sept, 23:004,357 MW3,673 MW
16 Sept, 00:004,019 MW3,356 MW
16 Sept, 01:003,907 MW3,152 MW
16 Sept, 02:003,844 MW3,015 MW
16 Sept, 03:003,802 MW2,981 MW
16 Sept, 04:003,775 MW3,069 MW
16 Sept, 05:003,962 MW3,213 MW
16 Sept, 06:004,247 MW3,387 MW
16 Sept, 07:004,566 MW3,431 MW
16 Sept, 08:005,001 MW3,428 MW
16 Sept, 09:005,043 MW3,530 MW
16 Sept, 10:005,258 MW3,597 MW
16 Sept, 11:005,484 MW3,732 MW
16 Sept, 12:005,823 MW3,967 MW
16 Sept, 13:006,142 MW4,177 MW
16 Sept, 14:006,415 MW4,430 MW
16 Sept, 15:006,669 MW4,726 MW
16 Sept, 16:006,577 MW4,944 MW
16 Sept, 17:005,875 MW4,922 MW
16 Sept, 18:005,373 MW4,834 MW
16 Sept, 19:005,452 MW4,654 MW
16 Sept, 20:005,439 MW4,419 MW
16 Sept, 21:005,242 MW4,192 MW
16 Sept, 22:004,857 MW3,907 MW
16 Sept, 23:004,691 MW3,586 MW
17 Sept, 00:004,246 MW3,431 MW
17 Sept, 01:004,186 MW3,279 MW
17 Sept, 02:003,907 MW3,223 MW
17 Sept, 03:003,905 MW3,205 MW
17 Sept, 04:003,975 MW3,328 MW
17 Sept, 05:004,048 MW3,476 MW
17 Sept, 06:004,358 MW3,659 MW
17 Sept, 07:004,506 MW3,726 MW
17 Sept, 08:004,895 MW3,760 MW
17 Sept, 09:004,956 MW3,838 MW
17 Sept, 10:005,309 MW3,820 MW
17 Sept, 11:005,450 MW3,932 MW
17 Sept, 12:005,488 MW4,073 MW
17 Sept, 13:006,041 MW4,247 MW
17 Sept, 14:006,169 MW4,401 MW
17 Sept, 15:006,510 MW4,564 MW
17 Sept, 16:006,441 MW4,735 MW
17 Sept, 17:006,209 MW4,667 MW
17 Sept, 18:006,050 MW4,697 MW
17 Sept, 19:006,052 MW4,583 MW
17 Sept, 20:005,900 MW4,404 MW
17 Sept, 21:005,626 MW4,223 MW
17 Sept, 22:005,368 MW3,972 MW
17 Sept, 23:004,943 MW3,735 MW
18 Sept, 00:004,714 MW3,404 MW
18 Sept, 01:004,464 MW3,269 MW
18 Sept, 02:004,255 MW3,173 MW
18 Sept, 03:004,080 MW3,054 MW
18 Sept, 04:004,139 MW3,144 MW
18 Sept, 05:004,317 MW3,248 MW
18 Sept, 06:004,593 MW3,424 MW
18 Sept, 07:004,804 MW3,459 MW
18 Sept, 08:004,922 MW3,536 MW
18 Sept, 09:005,065 MW3,691 MW
18 Sept, 10:005,320 MW3,750 MW
18 Sept, 11:005,368 MW3,951 MW
18 Sept, 12:005,588 MW4,183 MW
18 Sept, 13:006,044 MW4,385 MW
18 Sept, 14:006,628 MW4,544 MW
18 Sept, 15:007,219 MW4,627 MW
18 Sept, 16:006,553 MW4,633 MW
18 Sept, 17:006,097 MW4,543 MW
18 Sept, 18:005,876 MW4,425 MW
18 Sept, 19:005,623 MW4,342 MW
18 Sept, 20:005,397 MW4,117 MW
18 Sept, 21:004,906 MW3,921 MW
18 Sept, 22:004,695 MW3,706 MW
18 Sept, 23:004,366 MW3,440 MW
19 Sept, 00:004,162 MW3,238 MW
19 Sept, 01:004,101 MW3,096 MW
19 Sept, 02:003,854 MW2,965 MW
19 Sept, 03:003,770 MW2,903 MW
19 Sept, 04:003,687 MW2,896 MW
19 Sept, 05:003,763 MW2,937 MW
19 Sept, 06:003,925 MW2,978 MW
19 Sept, 07:004,358 MW2,973 MW
19 Sept, 08:004,616 MW2,928 MW
19 Sept, 09:004,786 MW2,982 MW
19 Sept, 10:004,894 MW3,047 MW
19 Sept, 11:004,970 MW3,220 MW
19 Sept, 12:005,358 MW3,420 MW
19 Sept, 13:005,222 MW3,638 MW
19 Sept, 14:005,288 MW3,791 MW
19 Sept, 15:005,670 MW4,017 MW
19 Sept, 16:006,027 MW3,958 MW
19 Sept, 17:006,210 MW4,028 MW
19 Sept, 18:005,517 MW4,061 MW
19 Sept, 19:005,098 MW3,997 MW
19 Sept, 20:004,946 MW3,889 MW
19 Sept, 21:004,909 MW3,682 MW
19 Sept, 22:004,654 MW3,410 MW
19 Sept, 23:004,180 MW3,135 MW
20 Sept, 00:003,493 MW3,085 MW
20 Sept, 01:003,357 MW2,917 MW
20 Sept, 02:003,209 MW2,837 MW
20 Sept, 03:003,124 MW2,789 MW
20 Sept, 04:003,128 MW2,785 MW
20 Sept, 05:003,145 MW2,831 MW
20 Sept, 06:003,226 MW2,869 MW
20 Sept, 07:003,147 MW2,812 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,928 MW2,782 MW
20 Sept, 09:003,037 MW2,799 MW
20 Sept, 10:003,113 MW2,835 MW
20 Sept, 11:003,182 MW2,946 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,345 MW3,051 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,552 MW3,174 MW
20 Sept, 14:003,784 MW3,363 MW
20 Sept, 15:004,131 MW3,570 MW
20 Sept, 16:004,574 MW3,780 MW
20 Sept, 17:004,887 MW3,963 MW
20 Sept, 18:004,798 MW4,051 MW
20 Sept, 19:004,711 MW4,010 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.