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Data as of 2026-11-04
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 4 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 22.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 6 October to 4 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -22.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,498 MW (35.0%) too low at 8 Oct 2026, 16:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 22.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 6 October to 4 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -22.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,498 MW (35.0%) too low at 8 Oct 2026, 16:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PSCO came 48 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,059 MW, against average demand of 4,626 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 6 October to 4 November 2026
Average error22.3%
Bias-22.3%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss2,498 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,059 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 2,498 MW (35.0%) too low at 8 Oct 2026, 16:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 4,647 MW, reported 7,145 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-04. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 4 Nov 2026, 21:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
PSCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 4 Nov 2026, 21:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 28 Oct, 23:0029 Oct, 23:0030 Oct, 23:0031 Oct, 23:001 Nov, 22:002 Nov, 22:003 Nov, 22:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 4 Nov 2026, 21:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-04
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
28 Oct, 23:004,217 MW3,512 MW
29 Oct, 00:004,089 MW3,373 MW
29 Oct, 01:003,969 MW3,231 MW
29 Oct, 02:003,776 MW3,141 MW
29 Oct, 03:003,878 MW3,127 MW
29 Oct, 04:004,027 MW3,160 MW
29 Oct, 05:004,433 MW3,248 MW
29 Oct, 06:004,895 MW3,422 MW
29 Oct, 07:005,008 MW3,657 MW
29 Oct, 08:004,985 MW3,773 MW
29 Oct, 09:004,751 MW3,709 MW
29 Oct, 10:004,596 MW3,599 MW
29 Oct, 11:004,383 MW3,486 MW
29 Oct, 12:004,409 MW3,382 MW
29 Oct, 13:004,558 MW3,355 MW
29 Oct, 14:004,799 MW3,347 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,925 MW3,402 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,782 MW3,537 MW
29 Oct, 17:004,603 MW3,710 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,702 MW3,886 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,768 MW3,949 MW
29 Oct, 20:004,594 MW3,916 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,395 MW3,806 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,180 MW3,720 MW
29 Oct, 23:003,963 MW3,534 MW
30 Oct, 00:003,845 MW3,374 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,712 MW3,232 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,609 MW3,144 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,565 MW3,132 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,611 MW3,149 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,818 MW3,218 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,222 MW3,401 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,526 MW3,666 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,805 MW3,843 MW
30 Oct, 09:004,535 MW3,786 MW
30 Oct, 10:004,478 MW3,759 MW
30 Oct, 11:004,570 MW3,618 MW
30 Oct, 12:004,636 MW3,493 MW
30 Oct, 13:004,666 MW3,456 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,816 MW3,451 MW
30 Oct, 15:005,142 MW3,484 MW
30 Oct, 16:005,230 MW3,612 MW
30 Oct, 17:005,185 MW3,760 MW
30 Oct, 18:005,187 MW3,893 MW
30 Oct, 19:005,033 MW3,937 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,904 MW3,828 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,820 MW3,743 MW
30 Oct, 22:004,531 MW3,694 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,052 MW3,530 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,697 MW3,307 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,453 MW3,194 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,525 MW3,101 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,692 MW3,030 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,840 MW2,983 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,841 MW3,013 MW
31 Oct, 06:003,996 MW3,070 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,379 MW3,245 MW
31 Oct, 08:004,553 MW3,449 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,699 MW3,459 MW
31 Oct, 10:004,586 MW3,409 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,613 MW3,321 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,577 MW3,254 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,515 MW3,190 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,590 MW3,144 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,805 MW3,218 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,632 MW3,362 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,566 MW3,568 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,560 MW3,755 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,502 MW3,857 MW
31 Oct, 20:004,456 MW3,776 MW
31 Oct, 21:004,386 MW3,686 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,284 MW3,618 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,023 MW3,458 MW
1 Nov, 00:003,875 MW3,318 MW
1 Nov, 01:003,692 MW3,312 MW
1 Nov, 01:003,625 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:003,550 MW3,216 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,665 MW3,094 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,814 MW3,057 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,897 MW3,025 MW
1 Nov, 06:003,933 MW3,046 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,285 MW3,133 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,629 MW3,261 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,641 MW3,407 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,570 MW3,399 MW
1 Nov, 11:004,410 MW3,357 MW
1 Nov, 12:004,589 MW3,320 MW
1 Nov, 13:004,762 MW3,320 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,988 MW3,292 MW
1 Nov, 15:005,089 MW3,293 MW
1 Nov, 16:005,121 MW3,445 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,124 MW3,619 MW
1 Nov, 18:005,174 MW3,792 MW
1 Nov, 19:005,113 MW3,901 MW
1 Nov, 20:004,622 MW3,956 MW
1 Nov, 21:004,457 MW3,868 MW
1 Nov, 22:00n/a3,692 MW
1 Nov, 23:00n/a3,539 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,318 MWn/a
2 Nov, 01:004,143 MWn/a
2 Nov, 02:003,984 MWn/a
2 Nov, 03:003,999 MWn/a
2 Nov, 04:003,962 MWn/a
2 Nov, 05:004,363 MWn/a
2 Nov, 06:004,555 MWn/a
2 Nov, 07:004,810 MWn/a
2 Nov, 08:005,093 MWn/a
2 Nov, 09:005,531 MWn/a
2 Nov, 10:005,737 MWn/a
2 Nov, 11:005,732 MWn/a
2 Nov, 12:005,771 MWn/a
2 Nov, 13:005,668 MWn/a
2 Nov, 14:005,619 MWn/a
2 Nov, 15:005,558 MWn/a
2 Nov, 16:005,493 MWn/a
2 Nov, 17:005,826 MWn/a
2 Nov, 18:005,830 MWn/a
2 Nov, 19:005,614 MWn/a
2 Nov, 20:005,401 MWn/a
2 Nov, 21:005,194 MWn/a
2 Nov, 22:004,710 MWn/a
2 Nov, 23:004,590 MWn/a
3 Nov, 00:004,649 MW3,384 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,628 MW3,283 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,588 MW3,219 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,590 MW3,195 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,726 MW3,230 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,910 MW3,396 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,342 MW3,546 MW
3 Nov, 07:005,506 MW3,706 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,383 MW3,791 MW
3 Nov, 09:005,076 MW3,693 MW
3 Nov, 10:004,658 MW3,583 MW
3 Nov, 11:004,514 MW3,460 MW
3 Nov, 12:004,600 MW3,353 MW
3 Nov, 13:004,826 MW3,317 MW
3 Nov, 14:004,891 MW3,317 MW
3 Nov, 15:004,885 MW3,433 MW
3 Nov, 16:004,950 MW3,643 MW
3 Nov, 17:005,078 MW3,920 MW
3 Nov, 18:005,169 MW4,065 MW
3 Nov, 19:005,047 MW4,091 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,846 MW3,984 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,662 MW3,865 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,398 MW3,717 MW
3 Nov, 23:004,151 MW3,548 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,042 MW3,441 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,889 MW3,324 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,913 MW3,269 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,910 MW3,279 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,902 MW3,308 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,241 MW3,442 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,679 MW3,587 MW
4 Nov, 07:004,875 MW3,780 MW
4 Nov, 08:004,699 MW3,760 MW
4 Nov, 09:004,443 MW3,635 MW
4 Nov, 10:004,238 MW3,481 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,430 MW3,330 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,665 MW3,301 MW
4 Nov, 13:004,830 MW3,390 MW
4 Nov, 14:004,930 MW3,474 MW
4 Nov, 15:004,606 MW3,636 MW
4 Nov, 16:004,677 MW3,788 MW
4 Nov, 17:005,056 MW3,961 MW
4 Nov, 18:005,070 MW4,116 MW
4 Nov, 19:005,130 MW4,132 MW
4 Nov, 20:004,927 MW4,056 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,731 MW3,980 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-04. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_psco_2026,
  title = {{PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-04. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/}
}

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