Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina was off by 58.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 670 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 6% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +57.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,148 MW (356.3%) too high at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Sarajevo).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina was off by 58.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 670 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 6% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +57.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,148 MW (356.3%) too high at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Bosnia and Herzegovina came 47 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 347 MW, against average demand of 786 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 96% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
670 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026Average error58.2%
Bias+57.8%
Hours within 5%6%
Worst miss1,148 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+343 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,148 MW (356.3%) too high at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,470 MW, reported 322 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)Data to 2026-09-20
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept, 14:00 | n/a | 941 MW |
| 13 Sept, 15:00 | 265 MW | 971 MW |
| 13 Sept, 16:00 | 388 MW | 977 MW |
| 13 Sept, 17:00 | 562 MW | 987 MW |
| 13 Sept, 18:00 | 742 MW | 1,113 MW |
| 13 Sept, 19:00 | 906 MW | 1,229 MW |
| 13 Sept, 20:00 | 945 MW | 1,249 MW |
| 13 Sept, 21:00 | 858 MW | 1,169 MW |
| 13 Sept, 22:00 | 741 MW | 1,049 MW |
| 13 Sept, 23:00 | 637 MW | 893 MW |
| 14 Sept, 00:00 | 558 MW | 832 MW |
| 14 Sept, 01:00 | 532 MW | 776 MW |
| 14 Sept, 02:00 | 517 MW | 765 MW |
| 14 Sept, 03:00 | 510 MW | 754 MW |
| 14 Sept, 04:00 | 524 MW | 751 MW |
| 14 Sept, 05:00 | 555 MW | 799 MW |
| 14 Sept, 06:00 | 701 MW | 916 MW |
| 14 Sept, 07:00 | 820 MW | 1,026 MW |
| 14 Sept, 08:00 | 760 MW | 1,144 MW |
| 14 Sept, 09:00 | 699 MW | 1,160 MW |
| 14 Sept, 10:00 | 578 MW | 1,150 MW |
| 14 Sept, 11:00 | 561 MW | 1,159 MW |
| 14 Sept, 12:00 | 589 MW | 1,163 MW |
| 14 Sept, 13:00 | 623 MW | 1,156 MW |
| 14 Sept, 14:00 | 694 MW | 1,213 MW |
| 14 Sept, 15:00 | 673 MW | 1,228 MW |
| 14 Sept, 16:00 | 679 MW | 1,213 MW |
| 14 Sept, 17:00 | 762 MW | 1,226 MW |
| 14 Sept, 18:00 | 815 MW | 1,264 MW |
| 14 Sept, 19:00 | 915 MW | 1,323 MW |
| 14 Sept, 20:00 | 863 MW | 1,337 MW |
| 14 Sept, 21:00 | 784 MW | 1,274 MW |
| 14 Sept, 22:00 | 655 MW | 1,153 MW |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 | 590 MW | 981 MW |
| 15 Sept, 00:00 | 496 MW | 862 MW |
| 15 Sept, 01:00 | 445 MW | 778 MW |
| 15 Sept, 02:00 | 445 MW | 747 MW |
| 15 Sept, 03:00 | 410 MW | 741 MW |
| 15 Sept, 04:00 | 434 MW | 756 MW |
| 15 Sept, 05:00 | 503 MW | 787 MW |
| 15 Sept, 06:00 | 642 MW | 919 MW |
| 15 Sept, 07:00 | 704 MW | 996 MW |
| 15 Sept, 08:00 | 632 MW | 1,098 MW |
| 15 Sept, 09:00 | 515 MW | 1,065 MW |
| 15 Sept, 10:00 | 379 MW | 993 MW |
| 15 Sept, 11:00 | 365 MW | 1,010 MW |
| 15 Sept, 12:00 | 423 MW | 1,022 MW |
| 15 Sept, 13:00 | 434 MW | 1,020 MW |
| 15 Sept, 14:00 | 506 MW | 1,090 MW |
| 15 Sept, 15:00 | 552 MW | 1,098 MW |
| 15 Sept, 16:00 | 680 MW | 1,140 MW |
| 15 Sept, 17:00 | 811 MW | 1,176 MW |
| 15 Sept, 18:00 | 891 MW | 1,202 MW |
| 15 Sept, 19:00 | 1,009 MW | 1,297 MW |
| 15 Sept, 20:00 | 1,024 MW | 1,300 MW |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 | 941 MW | 1,228 MW |
| 15 Sept, 22:00 | 825 MW | 1,067 MW |
| 15 Sept, 23:00 | 723 MW | 940 MW |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 | 700 MW | 862 MW |
| 16 Sept, 01:00 | 664 MW | 796 MW |
| 16 Sept, 02:00 | 637 MW | 777 MW |
| 16 Sept, 03:00 | 634 MW | 774 MW |
| 16 Sept, 04:00 | 653 MW | 781 MW |
| 16 Sept, 05:00 | 723 MW | 822 MW |
| 16 Sept, 06:00 | 809 MW | 975 MW |
| 16 Sept, 07:00 | 899 MW | 1,120 MW |
| 16 Sept, 08:00 | 758 MW | 1,111 MW |
| 16 Sept, 09:00 | 617 MW | 1,102 MW |
| 16 Sept, 10:00 | 435 MW | 1,002 MW |
| 16 Sept, 11:00 | 355 MW | 1,212 MW |
| 16 Sept, 12:00 | 345 MW | 1,218 MW |
| 16 Sept, 13:00 | 366 MW | 1,228 MW |
| 16 Sept, 14:00 | 425 MW | 1,293 MW |
| 16 Sept, 15:00 | 500 MW | 1,108 MW |
| 16 Sept, 16:00 | 631 MW | 1,118 MW |
| 16 Sept, 17:00 | 799 MW | 1,163 MW |
| 16 Sept, 18:00 | 995 MW | 1,259 MW |
| 16 Sept, 19:00 | 1,123 MW | 1,327 MW |
| 16 Sept, 20:00 | 1,140 MW | 1,354 MW |
| 16 Sept, 21:00 | 1,064 MW | 1,251 MW |
| 16 Sept, 22:00 | 914 MW | 1,130 MW |
| 16 Sept, 23:00 | 782 MW | 990 MW |
| 17 Sept, 00:00 | 740 MW | 878 MW |
| 17 Sept, 01:00 | 674 MW | 801 MW |
| 17 Sept, 02:00 | 639 MW | 780 MW |
| 17 Sept, 03:00 | 628 MW | 778 MW |
| 17 Sept, 04:00 | 649 MW | 788 MW |
| 17 Sept, 05:00 | 710 MW | 853 MW |
| 17 Sept, 06:00 | 807 MW | 1,000 MW |
| 17 Sept, 07:00 | 875 MW | 1,148 MW |
| 17 Sept, 08:00 | 741 MW | 1,150 MW |
| 17 Sept, 09:00 | 607 MW | 1,100 MW |
| 17 Sept, 10:00 | 471 MW | 1,024 MW |
| 17 Sept, 11:00 | 584 MW | 930 MW |
| 17 Sept, 12:00 | 623 MW | 1,036 MW |
| 17 Sept, 13:00 | 640 MW | 1,044 MW |
| 17 Sept, 14:00 | 703 MW | 1,104 MW |
| 17 Sept, 15:00 | 795 MW | 1,121 MW |
| 17 Sept, 16:00 | 944 MW | 1,152 MW |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 | 1,085 MW | 1,207 MW |
| 17 Sept, 18:00 | 1,224 MW | 1,215 MW |
| 17 Sept, 19:00 | 1,314 MW | 1,325 MW |
| 17 Sept, 20:00 | 1,308 MW | 1,321 MW |
| 17 Sept, 21:00 | 1,231 MW | 1,246 MW |
| 17 Sept, 22:00 | 1,117 MW | 1,082 MW |
| 17 Sept, 23:00 | 1,013 MW | 956 MW |
| 18 Sept, 00:00 | 951 MW | 885 MW |
| 18 Sept, 01:00 | 897 MW | 806 MW |
| 18 Sept, 02:00 | 860 MW | 787 MW |
| 18 Sept, 03:00 | 841 MW | 779 MW |
| 18 Sept, 04:00 | 862 MW | 794 MW |
| 18 Sept, 05:00 | 923 MW | 844 MW |
| 18 Sept, 06:00 | 1,013 MW | 966 MW |
| 18 Sept, 07:00 | 1,122 MW | 1,160 MW |
| 18 Sept, 08:00 | 1,025 MW | 1,172 MW |
| 18 Sept, 09:00 | 870 MW | 1,118 MW |
| 18 Sept, 10:00 | 679 MW | 1,049 MW |
| 18 Sept, 11:00 | 629 MW | 1,061 MW |
| 18 Sept, 12:00 | 674 MW | 1,072 MW |
| 18 Sept, 13:00 | 711 MW | 1,085 MW |
| 18 Sept, 14:00 | 768 MW | 1,135 MW |
| 18 Sept, 15:00 | 886 MW | 1,171 MW |
| 18 Sept, 16:00 | 1,051 MW | 1,183 MW |
| 18 Sept, 17:00 | 1,145 MW | 1,235 MW |
| 18 Sept, 18:00 | 1,224 MW | 1,293 MW |
| 18 Sept, 19:00 | 1,303 MW | 1,349 MW |
| 18 Sept, 20:00 | 1,264 MW | 1,359 MW |
| 18 Sept, 21:00 | 1,228 MW | 1,276 MW |
| 18 Sept, 22:00 | 1,113 MW | 1,125 MW |
| 18 Sept, 23:00 | 1,055 MW | 1,007 MW |
| 19 Sept, 00:00 | 945 MW | 869 MW |
| 19 Sept, 01:00 | 879 MW | 805 MW |
| 19 Sept, 02:00 | 845 MW | 775 MW |
| 19 Sept, 03:00 | 822 MW | 770 MW |
| 19 Sept, 04:00 | 805 MW | 770 MW |
| 19 Sept, 05:00 | 865 MW | 804 MW |
| 19 Sept, 06:00 | 913 MW | 893 MW |
| 19 Sept, 07:00 | 1,005 MW | 1,009 MW |
| 19 Sept, 08:00 | 1,048 MW | 1,084 MW |
| 19 Sept, 09:00 | 1,020 MW | 1,311 MW |
| 19 Sept, 10:00 | 1,067 MW | 1,291 MW |
| 19 Sept, 11:00 | 1,047 MW | 1,262 MW |
| 19 Sept, 12:00 | 1,011 MW | 1,221 MW |
| 19 Sept, 13:00 | 976 MW | 1,216 MW |
| 19 Sept, 14:00 | 907 MW | 1,274 MW |
| 19 Sept, 15:00 | 879 MW | 1,308 MW |
| 19 Sept, 16:00 | 939 MW | 1,116 MW |
| 19 Sept, 17:00 | 1,104 MW | 1,150 MW |
| 19 Sept, 18:00 | 1,154 MW | 1,217 MW |
| 19 Sept, 19:00 | 1,206 MW | 1,275 MW |
| 19 Sept, 20:00 | 1,154 MW | 1,265 MW |
| 19 Sept, 21:00 | 1,097 MW | 1,203 MW |
| 19 Sept, 22:00 | 1,034 MW | 997 MW |
| 19 Sept, 23:00 | 950 MW | 947 MW |
| 20 Sept, 00:00 | 827 MW | 898 MW |
| 20 Sept, 01:00 | 698 MW | 831 MW |
| 20 Sept, 02:00 | 622 MW | 781 MW |
| 20 Sept, 03:00 | 582 MW | 744 MW |
| 20 Sept, 04:00 | 575 MW | 748 MW |
| 20 Sept, 05:00 | 613 MW | 761 MW |
| 20 Sept, 06:00 | 662 MW | 771 MW |
| 20 Sept, 07:00 | 665 MW | 826 MW |
| 20 Sept, 08:00 | 571 MW | 870 MW |
| 20 Sept, 09:00 | 445 MW | 1,098 MW |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 | 352 MW | 1,107 MW |
| 20 Sept, 11:00 | 331 MW | 1,109 MW |
| 20 Sept, 12:00 | 319 MW | 1,114 MW |
| 20 Sept, 13:00 | 326 MW | 1,106 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (670 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.