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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Belgium was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,367 MW (11.3%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Brussels).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Belgium was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 87% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,367 MW (11.3%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Belgium came 18 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 259 MW, against average demand of 9,491 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 28% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias-1.7%
Hours within 5%87%
Worst miss1,367 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-159 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,367 MW (11.3%) too low at 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 10,733 MW, reported 12,100 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Belgium day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Belgium over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,750 7,500 11,250 15,000 29 Oct, 15:0030 Oct, 15:0031 Oct, 15:001 Nov, 15:002 Nov, 15:003 Nov, 15:004 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Belgium over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 15:0010,503 MW11,059 MW
29 Oct, 16:0010,240 MW10,615 MW
29 Oct, 17:0010,517 MW10,693 MW
29 Oct, 18:0010,885 MW10,544 MW
29 Oct, 19:0010,601 MW10,499 MW
29 Oct, 20:0010,125 MW10,216 MW
29 Oct, 21:009,551 MW9,606 MW
29 Oct, 22:009,277 MW9,146 MW
29 Oct, 23:009,034 MW8,755 MW
30 Oct, 00:008,453 MW8,189 MW
30 Oct, 01:008,131 MW8,032 MW
30 Oct, 02:007,906 MW7,839 MW
30 Oct, 03:007,903 MW7,789 MW
30 Oct, 04:008,049 MW7,756 MW
30 Oct, 05:008,346 MW8,088 MW
30 Oct, 06:009,175 MW8,897 MW
30 Oct, 07:0010,002 MW9,791 MW
30 Oct, 08:0010,764 MW10,350 MW
30 Oct, 09:0011,353 MW10,864 MW
30 Oct, 10:0011,582 MW11,097 MW
30 Oct, 11:0012,165 MW11,147 MW
30 Oct, 12:0011,794 MW11,048 MW
30 Oct, 13:0011,554 MW11,284 MW
30 Oct, 14:0011,035 MW10,973 MW
30 Oct, 15:0010,446 MW10,514 MW
30 Oct, 16:0010,029 MW10,320 MW
30 Oct, 17:0010,278 MW10,572 MW
30 Oct, 18:0010,515 MW10,523 MW
30 Oct, 19:0010,175 MW10,367 MW
30 Oct, 20:009,783 MW9,866 MW
30 Oct, 21:009,357 MW9,285 MW
30 Oct, 22:009,165 MW8,897 MW
30 Oct, 23:008,921 MW8,645 MW
31 Oct, 00:008,201 MW8,089 MW
31 Oct, 01:007,812 MW7,788 MW
31 Oct, 02:007,512 MW7,578 MW
31 Oct, 03:007,433 MW7,464 MW
31 Oct, 04:007,475 MW7,428 MW
31 Oct, 05:007,486 MW7,406 MW
31 Oct, 06:007,897 MW7,739 MW
31 Oct, 07:008,188 MW8,148 MW
31 Oct, 08:008,634 MW8,702 MW
31 Oct, 09:009,067 MW9,390 MW
31 Oct, 10:009,524 MW10,073 MW
31 Oct, 11:0010,125 MW10,474 MW
31 Oct, 12:0010,475 MW10,660 MW
31 Oct, 13:0010,214 MW9,996 MW
31 Oct, 14:009,504 MW9,379 MW
31 Oct, 15:009,020 MW9,075 MW
31 Oct, 16:008,936 MW9,045 MW
31 Oct, 17:009,339 MW9,253 MW
31 Oct, 18:009,574 MW9,504 MW
31 Oct, 19:009,422 MW9,531 MW
31 Oct, 20:008,974 MW9,145 MW
31 Oct, 21:008,680 MW8,740 MW
31 Oct, 22:008,553 MW8,480 MW
31 Oct, 23:008,318 MW8,144 MW
1 Nov, 00:007,978 MW7,649 MW
1 Nov, 01:007,824 MW7,437 MW
1 Nov, 02:007,510 MW7,405 MW
1 Nov, 03:007,392 MW7,239 MW
1 Nov, 04:007,420 MW7,145 MW
1 Nov, 05:007,466 MW7,122 MW
1 Nov, 06:007,767 MW7,243 MW
1 Nov, 07:008,044 MW7,613 MW
1 Nov, 08:008,452 MW7,800 MW
1 Nov, 09:009,064 MW8,514 MW
1 Nov, 10:009,325 MW9,184 MW
1 Nov, 11:009,840 MW9,439 MW
1 Nov, 12:009,731 MW9,925 MW
1 Nov, 13:009,524 MW9,716 MW
1 Nov, 14:009,524 MW9,364 MW
1 Nov, 15:009,116 MW9,022 MW
1 Nov, 16:008,992 MW8,891 MW
1 Nov, 17:009,415 MW8,874 MW
1 Nov, 18:009,701 MW9,367 MW
1 Nov, 19:009,576 MW9,723 MW
1 Nov, 20:009,247 MW9,611 MW
1 Nov, 21:008,942 MW9,306 MW
1 Nov, 22:008,879 MW9,058 MW
1 Nov, 23:008,706 MW8,716 MW
2 Nov, 00:008,151 MW8,460 MW
2 Nov, 01:007,872 MW7,907 MW
2 Nov, 02:007,754 MW7,754 MW
2 Nov, 03:007,731 MW7,747 MW
2 Nov, 04:007,907 MW7,787 MW
2 Nov, 05:008,243 MW8,218 MW
2 Nov, 06:008,970 MW9,152 MW
2 Nov, 07:009,594 MW9,849 MW
2 Nov, 08:0010,317 MW10,641 MW
2 Nov, 09:0010,981 MW11,326 MW
2 Nov, 10:0011,412 MW11,468 MW
2 Nov, 11:0011,879 MW11,163 MW
2 Nov, 12:0011,436 MW11,071 MW
2 Nov, 13:0011,107 MW11,065 MW
2 Nov, 14:0010,669 MW10,683 MW
2 Nov, 15:0010,717 MW10,306 MW
2 Nov, 16:0010,710 MW10,209 MW
2 Nov, 17:0010,945 MW10,647 MW
2 Nov, 18:0011,186 MW10,834 MW
2 Nov, 19:0010,900 MW10,556 MW
2 Nov, 20:0010,309 MW10,090 MW
2 Nov, 21:009,773 MW9,621 MW
2 Nov, 22:009,516 MW9,318 MW
2 Nov, 23:009,489 MW9,023 MW
3 Nov, 00:008,951 MW8,146 MW
3 Nov, 01:008,568 MW7,740 MW
3 Nov, 02:008,225 MW7,701 MW
3 Nov, 03:008,113 MW7,648 MW
3 Nov, 04:008,210 MW7,775 MW
3 Nov, 05:008,619 MW8,038 MW
3 Nov, 06:009,480 MW8,930 MW
3 Nov, 07:0010,338 MW9,853 MW
3 Nov, 08:0010,918 MW10,801 MW
3 Nov, 09:0011,156 MW11,366 MW
3 Nov, 10:0011,273 MW11,386 MW
3 Nov, 11:0011,466 MW11,459 MW
3 Nov, 12:0011,300 MW11,168 MW
3 Nov, 13:0011,215 MW10,774 MW
3 Nov, 14:0011,050 MW10,317 MW
3 Nov, 15:0010,965 MW10,231 MW
3 Nov, 16:0011,026 MW10,342 MW
3 Nov, 17:0011,373 MW10,602 MW
3 Nov, 18:0011,514 MW10,825 MW
3 Nov, 19:0011,084 MW10,504 MW
3 Nov, 20:0010,516 MW10,013 MW
3 Nov, 21:0010,002 MW9,417 MW
3 Nov, 22:009,727 MW9,109 MW
3 Nov, 23:009,519 MW8,798 MW
4 Nov, 00:009,138 MW8,517 MW
4 Nov, 01:008,656 MW8,128 MW
4 Nov, 02:008,285 MW7,944 MW
4 Nov, 03:008,339 MW7,836 MW
4 Nov, 04:008,432 MW7,897 MW
4 Nov, 05:008,761 MW8,293 MW
4 Nov, 06:009,787 MW9,161 MW
4 Nov, 07:0010,567 MW10,064 MW
4 Nov, 08:0010,889 MW10,875 MW
4 Nov, 09:0011,372 MW11,396 MW
4 Nov, 10:0011,440 MW11,440 MW
4 Nov, 11:0011,620 MW11,684 MW
4 Nov, 12:0011,570 MW11,629 MW
4 Nov, 13:0011,481 MW11,340 MW
4 Nov, 14:0011,034 MW10,912 MW
4 Nov, 15:0010,816 MW10,758 MW
4 Nov, 16:0011,002 MW10,390 MW
4 Nov, 17:0011,495 MW10,707 MW
4 Nov, 18:0011,650 MW10,910 MW
4 Nov, 19:0011,154 MW10,550 MW
4 Nov, 20:0010,657 MW10,043 MW
4 Nov, 21:0010,053 MW9,508 MW
4 Nov, 22:009,820 MW9,265 MW
4 Nov, 23:009,414 MW9,032 MW
5 Nov, 00:009,111 MW8,733 MW
5 Nov, 01:008,792 MW8,349 MW
5 Nov, 02:008,603 MW8,098 MW
5 Nov, 03:008,607 MW8,033 MW
5 Nov, 04:008,697 MW8,115 MW
5 Nov, 05:009,098 MW8,572 MW
5 Nov, 06:009,933 MW9,478 MW
5 Nov, 07:0010,809 MW10,461 MW
5 Nov, 08:0011,576 MW11,180 MW
5 Nov, 09:0012,292 MW11,816 MW
5 Nov, 10:0012,462 MW12,103 MW
5 Nov, 11:0012,713 MW12,326 MW
5 Nov, 12:0012,327 MW11,904 MW
5 Nov, 13:0012,019 MW11,414 MW
5 Nov, 14:0011,499 MW10,932 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_be_2026,
  title = {{Belgium Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/be/}
}

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