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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,108 MW (10.8%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,108 MW (10.8%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South-Central (SE3) came 8 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 201 MW, against average demand of 9,483 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 51% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.1%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%94%
Worst miss1,108 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,108 MW (10.8%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 9,117 MW, reported 10,225 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden South-Central (SE3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:0010,056 MW9,973 MW
29 Oct, 15:0010,298 MW10,098 MW
29 Oct, 16:0010,477 MW10,375 MW
29 Oct, 17:0010,396 MW10,644 MW
29 Oct, 18:0010,179 MW10,555 MW
29 Oct, 19:0010,008 MW10,279 MW
29 Oct, 20:009,909 MW9,900 MW
29 Oct, 21:009,713 MW9,369 MW
29 Oct, 22:009,234 MW8,980 MW
29 Oct, 23:008,923 MW8,545 MW
30 Oct, 00:008,458 MW8,365 MW
30 Oct, 01:008,429 MW8,218 MW
30 Oct, 02:008,186 MW8,165 MW
30 Oct, 03:008,125 MW8,140 MW
30 Oct, 04:008,038 MW8,285 MW
30 Oct, 05:008,509 MW8,849 MW
30 Oct, 06:009,318 MW9,750 MW
30 Oct, 07:0010,001 MW10,326 MW
30 Oct, 08:0010,116 MW10,489 MW
30 Oct, 09:0010,139 MW10,412 MW
30 Oct, 10:009,974 MW10,235 MW
30 Oct, 11:009,912 MW10,061 MW
30 Oct, 12:009,862 MW9,879 MW
30 Oct, 13:009,640 MW9,726 MW
30 Oct, 14:009,617 MW9,679 MW
30 Oct, 15:009,836 MW9,837 MW
30 Oct, 16:0010,126 MW10,176 MW
30 Oct, 17:0010,138 MW10,457 MW
30 Oct, 18:0010,007 MW10,316 MW
30 Oct, 19:009,845 MW10,000 MW
30 Oct, 20:009,651 MW9,665 MW
30 Oct, 21:009,707 MW9,218 MW
30 Oct, 22:009,323 MW8,926 MW
30 Oct, 23:009,176 MW8,769 MW
31 Oct, 00:008,898 MW8,559 MW
31 Oct, 01:008,707 MW8,454 MW
31 Oct, 02:008,674 MW8,331 MW
31 Oct, 03:008,512 MW8,309 MW
31 Oct, 04:008,617 MW8,393 MW
31 Oct, 05:008,601 MW8,518 MW
31 Oct, 06:008,791 MW8,552 MW
31 Oct, 07:008,891 MW8,852 MW
31 Oct, 08:009,110 MW9,150 MW
31 Oct, 09:009,221 MW9,346 MW
31 Oct, 10:009,355 MW9,340 MW
31 Oct, 11:009,419 MW9,258 MW
31 Oct, 12:009,464 MW9,161 MW
31 Oct, 13:009,356 MW9,153 MW
31 Oct, 14:009,384 MW9,125 MW
31 Oct, 15:009,518 MW9,324 MW
31 Oct, 16:009,791 MW9,887 MW
31 Oct, 17:009,964 MW10,112 MW
31 Oct, 18:009,731 MW9,853 MW
31 Oct, 19:009,549 MW9,500 MW
31 Oct, 20:009,272 MW9,188 MW
31 Oct, 21:008,970 MW8,880 MW
31 Oct, 22:008,749 MW8,655 MW
31 Oct, 23:008,466 MW8,438 MW
1 Nov, 00:008,380 MW8,292 MW
1 Nov, 01:008,388 MW8,192 MW
1 Nov, 02:008,325 MW8,076 MW
1 Nov, 03:008,098 MW7,968 MW
1 Nov, 04:008,193 MW7,950 MW
1 Nov, 05:008,511 MW8,118 MW
1 Nov, 06:008,373 MW8,207 MW
1 Nov, 07:008,336 MW8,440 MW
1 Nov, 08:008,572 MW8,797 MW
1 Nov, 09:008,929 MW9,118 MW
1 Nov, 10:009,166 MW9,348 MW
1 Nov, 11:009,417 MW9,477 MW
1 Nov, 12:009,587 MW9,517 MW
1 Nov, 13:009,718 MW9,568 MW
1 Nov, 14:009,747 MW9,566 MW
1 Nov, 15:009,801 MW9,747 MW
1 Nov, 16:0010,069 MW10,063 MW
1 Nov, 17:0010,296 MW10,291 MW
1 Nov, 18:0010,070 MW10,194 MW
1 Nov, 19:009,963 MW9,966 MW
1 Nov, 20:009,646 MW9,657 MW
1 Nov, 21:009,464 MW9,308 MW
1 Nov, 22:009,163 MW8,958 MW
1 Nov, 23:009,039 MW8,678 MW
2 Nov, 00:008,586 MW8,474 MW
2 Nov, 01:008,415 MW8,330 MW
2 Nov, 02:008,197 MW8,286 MW
2 Nov, 03:008,100 MW8,259 MW
2 Nov, 04:008,252 MW8,360 MW
2 Nov, 05:008,713 MW8,851 MW
2 Nov, 06:009,418 MW9,783 MW
2 Nov, 07:0010,443 MW10,520 MW
2 Nov, 08:0010,559 MW10,683 MW
2 Nov, 09:0010,986 MW10,703 MW
2 Nov, 10:0011,086 MW10,726 MW
2 Nov, 11:0011,106 MW10,723 MW
2 Nov, 12:0010,946 MW10,685 MW
2 Nov, 13:0010,857 MW10,647 MW
2 Nov, 14:0010,899 MW10,646 MW
2 Nov, 15:0010,921 MW10,820 MW
2 Nov, 16:0011,068 MW11,136 MW
2 Nov, 17:0011,352 MW11,372 MW
2 Nov, 18:0011,134 MW11,253 MW
2 Nov, 19:0011,073 MW11,058 MW
2 Nov, 20:0010,934 MW10,756 MW
2 Nov, 21:0010,709 MW10,345 MW
2 Nov, 22:0010,249 MW9,977 MW
2 Nov, 23:009,874 MW9,549 MW
3 Nov, 00:009,955 MW9,348 MW
3 Nov, 01:009,790 MW9,267 MW
3 Nov, 02:009,602 MW9,212 MW
3 Nov, 03:009,710 MW9,175 MW
3 Nov, 04:009,719 MW9,261 MW
3 Nov, 05:009,947 MW9,706 MW
3 Nov, 06:0010,906 MW10,564 MW
3 Nov, 07:0011,429 MW11,198 MW
3 Nov, 08:0011,364 MW11,287 MW
3 Nov, 09:0011,069 MW11,143 MW
3 Nov, 10:0010,732 MW11,072 MW
3 Nov, 11:0010,633 MW10,907 MW
3 Nov, 12:0010,503 MW10,708 MW
3 Nov, 13:0010,267 MW10,595 MW
3 Nov, 14:0010,462 MW10,594 MW
3 Nov, 15:0010,704 MW10,740 MW
3 Nov, 16:0011,109 MW11,102 MW
3 Nov, 17:0011,210 MW11,442 MW
3 Nov, 18:0011,024 MW11,270 MW
3 Nov, 19:0010,650 MW11,075 MW
3 Nov, 20:0010,580 MW10,813 MW
3 Nov, 21:0010,330 MW10,505 MW
3 Nov, 22:0010,120 MW10,013 MW
3 Nov, 23:0010,203 MW9,584 MW
4 Nov, 00:009,444 MW9,355 MW
4 Nov, 01:009,203 MW9,205 MW
4 Nov, 02:009,230 MW9,107 MW
4 Nov, 03:009,086 MW9,118 MW
4 Nov, 04:009,269 MW9,278 MW
4 Nov, 05:009,491 MW9,796 MW
4 Nov, 06:0010,439 MW10,689 MW
4 Nov, 07:0011,060 MW11,301 MW
4 Nov, 08:0011,119 MW11,424 MW
4 Nov, 09:0010,644 MW11,283 MW
4 Nov, 10:0010,405 MW11,019 MW
4 Nov, 11:0010,198 MW10,760 MW
4 Nov, 12:0010,295 MW10,589 MW
4 Nov, 13:0010,162 MW10,446 MW
4 Nov, 14:0010,212 MW10,440 MW
4 Nov, 15:0010,451 MW10,604 MW
4 Nov, 16:0010,596 MW11,075 MW
4 Nov, 17:0010,806 MW11,419 MW
4 Nov, 18:0010,660 MW11,296 MW
4 Nov, 19:0010,702 MW11,093 MW
4 Nov, 20:0010,448 MW10,716 MW
4 Nov, 21:0010,233 MW10,256 MW
4 Nov, 22:009,744 MW9,818 MW
4 Nov, 23:009,432 MW9,419 MW
5 Nov, 00:009,286 MW9,116 MW
5 Nov, 01:009,199 MW9,052 MW
5 Nov, 02:008,936 MW8,959 MW
5 Nov, 03:008,810 MW8,915 MW
5 Nov, 04:009,079 MW9,005 MW
5 Nov, 05:009,473 MW9,479 MW
5 Nov, 06:0010,152 MW10,368 MW
5 Nov, 07:0010,666 MW11,060 MW
5 Nov, 08:0010,755 MW11,155 MW
5 Nov, 09:0010,539 MW11,077 MW
5 Nov, 10:0010,315 MW10,957 MW
5 Nov, 11:0010,210 MW10,798 MW
5 Nov, 12:0010,359 MW10,645 MW
5 Nov, 13:0010,247 MW10,590 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se3_2026,
  title = {{Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/}
}

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