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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 995 MW (11.4%) too low at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 995 MW (11.4%) too low at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South-Central (SE3) came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 225 MW, against average demand of 8,180 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 18% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.8%
Bias-2.3%
Hours within 5%86%
Worst miss995 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-182 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 995 MW (11.4%) too low at 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 7,694 MW, reported 8,689 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Sweden South-Central (SE3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Sweden South-Central (SE3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:008,240 MW7,850 MW
13 Sept, 15:008,174 MW7,817 MW
13 Sept, 16:008,228 MW7,937 MW
13 Sept, 17:008,385 MW8,224 MW
13 Sept, 18:008,477 MW8,347 MW
13 Sept, 19:008,577 MW8,452 MW
13 Sept, 20:008,524 MW8,429 MW
13 Sept, 21:008,334 MW8,154 MW
13 Sept, 22:007,941 MW7,770 MW
13 Sept, 23:007,743 MW7,400 MW
14 Sept, 00:007,489 MW7,288 MW
14 Sept, 01:007,260 MW7,184 MW
14 Sept, 02:007,257 MW7,124 MW
14 Sept, 03:007,359 MW7,117 MW
14 Sept, 04:007,261 MW7,218 MW
14 Sept, 05:007,712 MW7,512 MW
14 Sept, 06:008,577 MW8,372 MW
14 Sept, 07:009,178 MW9,064 MW
14 Sept, 08:009,410 MW9,194 MW
14 Sept, 09:009,230 MW9,102 MW
14 Sept, 10:009,222 MW9,043 MW
14 Sept, 11:009,165 MW8,985 MW
14 Sept, 12:009,141 MW8,988 MW
14 Sept, 13:009,141 MW8,941 MW
14 Sept, 14:009,081 MW8,924 MW
14 Sept, 15:009,115 MW8,926 MW
14 Sept, 16:009,181 MW8,950 MW
14 Sept, 17:009,215 MW9,083 MW
14 Sept, 18:009,159 MW9,075 MW
14 Sept, 19:009,273 MW9,080 MW
14 Sept, 20:009,113 MW8,967 MW
14 Sept, 21:008,805 MW8,609 MW
14 Sept, 22:008,486 MW8,148 MW
14 Sept, 23:008,199 MW7,664 MW
15 Sept, 00:007,491 MW7,367 MW
15 Sept, 01:007,353 MW7,179 MW
15 Sept, 02:007,114 MW7,055 MW
15 Sept, 03:007,021 MW7,040 MW
15 Sept, 04:007,031 MW7,047 MW
15 Sept, 05:007,449 MW7,350 MW
15 Sept, 06:008,118 MW8,192 MW
15 Sept, 07:008,738 MW8,868 MW
15 Sept, 08:009,087 MW9,069 MW
15 Sept, 09:009,042 MW9,024 MW
15 Sept, 10:009,172 MW9,084 MW
15 Sept, 11:009,312 MW9,021 MW
15 Sept, 12:009,526 MW9,048 MW
15 Sept, 13:009,595 MW8,994 MW
15 Sept, 14:009,491 MW8,985 MW
15 Sept, 15:009,376 MW8,991 MW
15 Sept, 16:009,294 MW9,000 MW
15 Sept, 17:009,334 MW9,126 MW
15 Sept, 18:009,406 MW9,148 MW
15 Sept, 19:009,359 MW9,138 MW
15 Sept, 20:009,202 MW9,030 MW
15 Sept, 21:008,855 MW8,643 MW
15 Sept, 22:008,230 MW8,116 MW
15 Sept, 23:007,641 MW7,638 MW
16 Sept, 00:007,391 MW7,288 MW
16 Sept, 01:007,418 MW7,073 MW
16 Sept, 02:007,370 MW6,936 MW
16 Sept, 03:007,360 MW6,873 MW
16 Sept, 04:007,278 MW6,938 MW
16 Sept, 05:007,423 MW7,254 MW
16 Sept, 06:008,322 MW8,109 MW
16 Sept, 07:009,150 MW8,830 MW
16 Sept, 08:009,353 MW9,093 MW
16 Sept, 09:009,496 MW9,123 MW
16 Sept, 10:009,424 MW9,191 MW
16 Sept, 11:009,383 MW9,181 MW
16 Sept, 12:009,161 MW9,156 MW
16 Sept, 13:009,186 MW9,080 MW
16 Sept, 14:009,070 MW9,013 MW
16 Sept, 15:009,237 MW9,010 MW
16 Sept, 16:009,281 MW9,041 MW
16 Sept, 17:009,486 MW9,230 MW
16 Sept, 18:009,455 MW9,195 MW
16 Sept, 19:009,387 MW9,199 MW
16 Sept, 20:009,393 MW9,108 MW
16 Sept, 21:008,917 MW8,727 MW
16 Sept, 22:008,548 MW8,214 MW
16 Sept, 23:008,470 MW7,767 MW
17 Sept, 00:007,722 MW7,409 MW
17 Sept, 01:007,571 MW7,207 MW
17 Sept, 02:007,430 MW7,127 MW
17 Sept, 03:007,330 MW7,091 MW
17 Sept, 04:007,310 MW7,101 MW
17 Sept, 05:007,547 MW7,382 MW
17 Sept, 06:008,420 MW8,219 MW
17 Sept, 07:008,924 MW8,923 MW
17 Sept, 08:009,155 MW9,129 MW
17 Sept, 09:009,240 MW9,113 MW
17 Sept, 10:009,195 MW9,121 MW
17 Sept, 11:009,260 MW9,076 MW
17 Sept, 12:009,351 MW9,061 MW
17 Sept, 13:009,168 MW8,984 MW
17 Sept, 14:009,177 MW8,939 MW
17 Sept, 15:009,199 MW8,927 MW
17 Sept, 16:009,219 MW8,946 MW
17 Sept, 17:009,405 MW9,132 MW
17 Sept, 18:009,461 MW9,146 MW
17 Sept, 19:009,360 MW9,178 MW
17 Sept, 20:009,394 MW9,085 MW
17 Sept, 21:009,029 MW8,717 MW
17 Sept, 22:008,552 MW8,209 MW
17 Sept, 23:008,035 MW7,738 MW
18 Sept, 00:007,568 MW7,408 MW
18 Sept, 01:007,535 MW7,252 MW
18 Sept, 02:007,416 MW7,098 MW
18 Sept, 03:007,187 MW7,044 MW
18 Sept, 04:007,075 MW7,080 MW
18 Sept, 05:007,414 MW7,365 MW
18 Sept, 06:008,285 MW8,188 MW
18 Sept, 07:008,981 MW8,912 MW
18 Sept, 08:009,114 MW9,146 MW
18 Sept, 09:009,047 MW9,153 MW
18 Sept, 10:009,085 MW9,171 MW
18 Sept, 11:009,013 MW9,111 MW
18 Sept, 12:008,824 MW9,035 MW
18 Sept, 13:008,711 MW8,941 MW
18 Sept, 14:008,418 MW8,830 MW
18 Sept, 15:008,314 MW8,837 MW
18 Sept, 16:008,559 MW8,852 MW
18 Sept, 17:008,713 MW9,034 MW
18 Sept, 18:008,931 MW9,060 MW
18 Sept, 19:009,069 MW8,985 MW
18 Sept, 20:008,612 MW8,751 MW
18 Sept, 21:008,149 MW8,328 MW
18 Sept, 22:007,878 MW7,898 MW
18 Sept, 23:007,567 MW7,607 MW
19 Sept, 00:007,158 MW7,322 MW
19 Sept, 01:007,002 MW7,133 MW
19 Sept, 02:006,861 MW6,962 MW
19 Sept, 03:006,784 MW6,879 MW
19 Sept, 04:006,834 MW6,830 MW
19 Sept, 05:006,814 MW6,857 MW
19 Sept, 06:007,032 MW6,951 MW
19 Sept, 07:007,187 MW7,184 MW
19 Sept, 08:007,466 MW7,555 MW
19 Sept, 09:007,717 MW7,849 MW
19 Sept, 10:007,935 MW8,013 MW
19 Sept, 11:008,185 MW8,090 MW
19 Sept, 12:008,189 MW8,163 MW
19 Sept, 13:008,291 MW8,175 MW
19 Sept, 14:008,300 MW8,120 MW
19 Sept, 15:008,205 MW8,085 MW
19 Sept, 16:008,167 MW8,120 MW
19 Sept, 17:008,290 MW8,255 MW
19 Sept, 18:008,247 MW8,315 MW
19 Sept, 19:008,253 MW8,297 MW
19 Sept, 20:008,200 MW8,142 MW
19 Sept, 21:007,970 MW7,842 MW
19 Sept, 22:007,776 MW7,563 MW
19 Sept, 23:007,435 MW7,288 MW
20 Sept, 00:007,073 MW7,012 MW
20 Sept, 01:006,976 MW6,841 MW
20 Sept, 02:006,936 MW6,753 MW
20 Sept, 03:006,873 MW6,690 MW
20 Sept, 04:006,833 MW6,669 MW
20 Sept, 05:006,902 MW6,697 MW
20 Sept, 06:007,020 MW6,740 MW
20 Sept, 07:007,126 MW6,949 MW
20 Sept, 08:007,437 MW7,327 MW
20 Sept, 09:007,604 MW7,663 MW
20 Sept, 10:007,866 MW7,876 MW
20 Sept, 11:008,087 MW7,989 MW
20 Sept, 12:008,227 MW8,057 MW
20 Sept, 13:008,215 MW8,081 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.