Statistics
Page built 2026-09-21
Data as of 2026-09-20
Search
Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,249 MW (16.0%) too high at 16 Sept 2026, 12:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Helsinki).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,249 MW (16.0%) too high at 16 Sept 2026, 12:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Finland came 14 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 214 MW, against average demand of 8,495 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 55% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

688 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.6%
Bias+0.4%
Hours within 5%86%
Worst miss1,249 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+25 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,249 MW (16.0%) too high at 16 Sept 2026, 12:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 9,036 MW, reported 7,787 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00)
Finland day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 13 Sept, 16:0014 Sept, 16:0015 Sept, 16:0016 Sept, 16:0017 Sept, 16:0018 Sept, 16:0019 Sept, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Finland day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 16:008,571 MW8,469 MW
13 Sept, 17:008,597 MW8,432 MW
13 Sept, 18:008,542 MW8,367 MW
13 Sept, 19:008,534 MW8,384 MW
13 Sept, 20:008,922 MW8,458 MW
13 Sept, 21:008,785 MW8,392 MW
13 Sept, 22:008,865 MW8,396 MW
13 Sept, 23:008,728 MW8,204 MW
14 Sept, 00:008,576 MW7,969 MW
14 Sept, 01:008,522 MW8,133 MW
14 Sept, 02:008,235 MW7,993 MW
14 Sept, 03:007,978 MW7,940 MW
14 Sept, 04:007,890 MW7,932 MW
14 Sept, 05:008,278 MW8,153 MW
14 Sept, 06:008,596 MW8,575 MW
14 Sept, 07:008,951 MW8,876 MW
14 Sept, 08:009,091 MW8,989 MW
14 Sept, 09:008,948 MW9,010 MW
14 Sept, 10:008,857 MW9,017 MW
14 Sept, 11:008,844 MW9,066 MW
14 Sept, 12:008,646 MW9,128 MW
14 Sept, 13:008,355 MW9,035 MW
14 Sept, 14:008,255 MW8,964 MW
14 Sept, 15:008,259 MW8,933 MW
14 Sept, 16:008,213 MW8,874 MW
14 Sept, 17:008,217 MW8,813 MW
14 Sept, 18:008,173 MW8,734 MW
14 Sept, 19:008,180 MW8,771 MW
14 Sept, 20:008,395 MW8,880 MW
14 Sept, 21:008,213 MW8,775 MW
14 Sept, 22:008,104 MW8,743 MW
14 Sept, 23:008,040 MW8,510 MW
15 Sept, 00:007,910 MW8,235 MW
15 Sept, 01:007,624 MW7,949 MW
15 Sept, 02:007,456 MW7,912 MW
15 Sept, 03:007,529 MW7,852 MW
15 Sept, 04:007,602 MW7,877 MW
15 Sept, 05:007,682 MW8,156 MW
15 Sept, 06:007,959 MW8,530 MW
15 Sept, 07:008,371 MW8,829 MW
15 Sept, 08:008,642 MW8,995 MW
15 Sept, 09:008,658 MW8,959 MW
15 Sept, 10:008,709 MW8,931 MW
15 Sept, 11:008,701 MW8,964 MW
15 Sept, 12:008,798 MW8,916 MW
15 Sept, 13:008,757 MW8,851 MW
15 Sept, 14:008,623 MW8,791 MW
15 Sept, 15:008,734 MW8,745 MW
15 Sept, 16:008,408 MW8,694 MW
15 Sept, 17:008,346 MW8,643 MW
15 Sept, 18:008,128 MW8,602 MW
15 Sept, 19:008,269 MW8,641 MW
15 Sept, 20:008,218 MW8,752 MW
15 Sept, 21:007,885 MW8,597 MW
15 Sept, 22:007,798 MW8,484 MW
15 Sept, 23:007,597 MW8,304 MW
16 Sept, 00:007,506 MW8,103 MW
16 Sept, 01:007,211 MW7,454 MW
16 Sept, 02:006,978 MW7,437 MW
16 Sept, 03:006,920 MW7,445 MW
16 Sept, 04:007,007 MW7,509 MW
16 Sept, 05:006,957 MW7,711 MW
16 Sept, 06:007,389 MW8,094 MW
16 Sept, 07:007,603 MW8,513 MW
16 Sept, 08:007,779 MW8,715 MW
16 Sept, 09:007,850 MW8,793 MW
16 Sept, 10:007,884 MW8,875 MW
16 Sept, 11:008,022 MW8,982 MW
16 Sept, 12:007,787 MW9,036 MW
16 Sept, 13:008,133 MW9,015 MW
16 Sept, 14:009,487 MW9,000 MW
16 Sept, 15:009,438 MW9,006 MW
16 Sept, 16:009,464 MW8,891 MW
16 Sept, 17:009,508 MW8,787 MW
16 Sept, 18:009,444 MW8,674 MW
16 Sept, 19:009,633 MW8,693 MW
16 Sept, 20:009,426 MW8,741 MW
16 Sept, 21:008,973 MW8,524 MW
16 Sept, 22:008,907 MW8,364 MW
16 Sept, 23:008,440 MW8,121 MW
17 Sept, 00:008,061 MW7,863 MW
17 Sept, 01:008,239 MW7,830 MW
17 Sept, 02:007,824 MW7,599 MW
17 Sept, 03:007,667 MW7,524 MW
17 Sept, 04:007,635 MW7,525 MW
17 Sept, 05:007,853 MW7,665 MW
17 Sept, 06:008,400 MW8,093 MW
17 Sept, 07:008,735 MW8,450 MW
17 Sept, 08:009,180 MW8,588 MW
17 Sept, 09:009,186 MW8,628 MW
17 Sept, 10:009,214 MW8,674 MW
17 Sept, 11:009,391 MW8,755 MW
17 Sept, 12:009,372 MW8,707 MW
17 Sept, 13:009,274 MW8,800 MW
17 Sept, 14:009,145 MW9,019 MW
17 Sept, 15:009,105 MW9,029 MW
17 Sept, 16:008,925 MW9,005 MW
17 Sept, 17:008,976 MW8,996 MW
17 Sept, 18:008,737 MW8,930 MW
17 Sept, 19:008,795 MW8,962 MW
17 Sept, 20:009,184 MW8,895 MW
17 Sept, 21:008,938 MW8,701 MW
17 Sept, 22:008,696 MW8,556 MW
17 Sept, 23:008,353 MW8,224 MW
18 Sept, 00:007,983 MW7,943 MW
18 Sept, 01:007,830 MW8,085 MW
18 Sept, 02:007,681 MW7,906 MW
18 Sept, 03:007,679 MW7,816 MW
18 Sept, 04:007,699 MW7,789 MW
18 Sept, 05:007,807 MW7,976 MW
18 Sept, 06:008,266 MW8,387 MW
18 Sept, 07:008,634 MW8,697 MW
18 Sept, 08:008,703 MW8,918 MW
18 Sept, 09:008,907 MW8,976 MW
18 Sept, 10:008,910 MW9,030 MW
18 Sept, 11:009,021 MW9,089 MW
18 Sept, 12:009,051 MW9,107 MW
18 Sept, 13:009,124 MW9,078 MW
18 Sept, 14:009,142 MW9,054 MW
18 Sept, 15:009,162 MW9,008 MW
18 Sept, 16:009,146 MW8,955 MW
18 Sept, 17:008,998 MW8,907 MW
18 Sept, 18:008,786 MW8,773 MW
18 Sept, 19:008,888 MW8,816 MW
18 Sept, 20:009,115 MW8,915 MW
18 Sept, 21:009,001 MW8,689 MW
18 Sept, 22:008,944 MW8,532 MW
18 Sept, 23:008,612 MW8,333 MW
19 Sept, 00:008,288 MW8,080 MW
19 Sept, 01:008,091 MW8,077 MW
19 Sept, 02:007,925 MW7,875 MW
19 Sept, 03:007,956 MW7,715 MW
19 Sept, 04:007,968 MW7,621 MW
19 Sept, 05:007,855 MW7,636 MW
19 Sept, 06:008,048 MW7,764 MW
19 Sept, 07:008,067 MW7,863 MW
19 Sept, 08:008,318 MW8,060 MW
19 Sept, 09:008,532 MW8,265 MW
19 Sept, 10:008,771 MW8,448 MW
19 Sept, 11:008,898 MW8,548 MW
19 Sept, 12:009,071 MW8,667 MW
19 Sept, 13:009,070 MW8,649 MW
19 Sept, 14:008,997 MW8,634 MW
19 Sept, 15:008,934 MW8,692 MW
19 Sept, 16:008,789 MW8,743 MW
19 Sept, 17:008,905 MW8,748 MW
19 Sept, 18:008,930 MW8,659 MW
19 Sept, 19:009,153 MW8,752 MW
19 Sept, 20:009,071 MW8,854 MW
19 Sept, 21:008,643 MW8,684 MW
19 Sept, 22:008,587 MW8,624 MW
19 Sept, 23:008,349 MW8,435 MW
20 Sept, 00:008,011 MW8,114 MW
20 Sept, 01:007,868 MW7,951 MW
20 Sept, 02:007,763 MW7,822 MW
20 Sept, 03:007,695 MW7,824 MW
20 Sept, 04:007,678 MW7,794 MW
20 Sept, 05:007,677 MW7,744 MW
20 Sept, 06:007,677 MW7,821 MW
20 Sept, 07:007,711 MW7,862 MW
20 Sept, 08:008,048 MW8,090 MW
20 Sept, 09:008,271 MW8,347 MW
20 Sept, 10:008,472 MW8,563 MW
20 Sept, 11:008,538 MW8,656 MW
20 Sept, 12:008,585 MW8,776 MW
20 Sept, 13:008,458 MW8,812 MW
20 Sept, 14:008,358 MW8,789 MW
20 Sept, 15:008,314 MW8,772 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.