Statistics
Page built 2026-11-05
Data as of 2026-11-05
Search
Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 4.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 64% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Helsinki).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 4.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 64% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Finland came 32 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 418 MW, against average demand of 9,845 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

688 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.2%
Bias-0.5%
Hours within 5%64%
Worst miss1,598 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-78 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 10,169 MW, reported 11,767 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Finland day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,750 7,500 11,250 15,000 29 Oct, 16:0030 Oct, 16:0031 Oct, 16:001 Nov, 16:002 Nov, 16:003 Nov, 16:004 Nov, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 16:0010,297 MW10,218 MW
29 Oct, 17:0010,622 MW10,398 MW
29 Oct, 18:0010,572 MW10,545 MW
29 Oct, 19:0010,527 MW10,464 MW
29 Oct, 20:0010,392 MW10,312 MW
29 Oct, 21:0010,124 MW10,039 MW
29 Oct, 22:0010,137 MW9,994 MW
29 Oct, 23:009,845 MW9,784 MW
30 Oct, 00:009,539 MW9,403 MW
30 Oct, 01:009,568 MW9,467 MW
30 Oct, 02:009,227 MW9,308 MW
30 Oct, 03:008,893 MW9,240 MW
30 Oct, 04:008,612 MW9,210 MW
30 Oct, 05:008,514 MW9,248 MW
30 Oct, 06:008,967 MW9,772 MW
30 Oct, 07:009,220 MW10,110 MW
30 Oct, 08:009,291 MW10,179 MW
30 Oct, 09:009,290 MW10,161 MW
30 Oct, 10:009,332 MW10,147 MW
30 Oct, 11:009,307 MW10,194 MW
30 Oct, 12:009,326 MW10,162 MW
30 Oct, 13:009,337 MW10,068 MW
30 Oct, 14:009,505 MW9,986 MW
30 Oct, 15:009,579 MW10,018 MW
30 Oct, 16:009,552 MW10,168 MW
30 Oct, 17:009,739 MW10,321 MW
30 Oct, 18:009,791 MW10,351 MW
30 Oct, 19:009,610 MW10,341 MW
30 Oct, 20:009,317 MW10,236 MW
30 Oct, 21:008,975 MW9,978 MW
30 Oct, 22:008,942 MW9,929 MW
30 Oct, 23:008,662 MW9,721 MW
31 Oct, 00:008,283 MW9,304 MW
31 Oct, 01:008,131 MW8,671 MW
31 Oct, 02:008,047 MW8,630 MW
31 Oct, 03:007,929 MW8,621 MW
31 Oct, 04:007,865 MW8,620 MW
31 Oct, 05:008,031 MW8,664 MW
31 Oct, 06:008,256 MW8,869 MW
31 Oct, 07:008,322 MW9,047 MW
31 Oct, 08:008,394 MW9,141 MW
31 Oct, 09:008,585 MW9,227 MW
31 Oct, 10:008,787 MW9,322 MW
31 Oct, 11:009,047 MW9,367 MW
31 Oct, 12:009,108 MW9,359 MW
31 Oct, 13:009,130 MW9,371 MW
31 Oct, 14:009,296 MW9,394 MW
31 Oct, 15:009,429 MW9,438 MW
31 Oct, 16:009,623 MW9,568 MW
31 Oct, 17:009,774 MW9,744 MW
31 Oct, 18:009,966 MW9,909 MW
31 Oct, 19:0010,164 MW10,032 MW
31 Oct, 20:0010,082 MW9,899 MW
31 Oct, 21:009,813 MW9,720 MW
31 Oct, 22:009,929 MW9,814 MW
31 Oct, 23:009,830 MW9,814 MW
1 Nov, 00:009,550 MW9,373 MW
1 Nov, 01:009,668 MW9,254 MW
1 Nov, 02:009,659 MW8,992 MW
1 Nov, 03:009,678 MW8,839 MW
1 Nov, 04:009,457 MW8,799 MW
1 Nov, 05:009,247 MW8,805 MW
1 Nov, 06:009,434 MW8,965 MW
1 Nov, 07:009,515 MW9,153 MW
1 Nov, 08:009,652 MW9,298 MW
1 Nov, 09:009,888 MW9,401 MW
1 Nov, 10:0010,112 MW9,525 MW
1 Nov, 11:0010,220 MW9,568 MW
1 Nov, 12:0010,209 MW9,628 MW
1 Nov, 13:0010,187 MW9,629 MW
1 Nov, 14:0010,155 MW9,621 MW
1 Nov, 15:0010,038 MW9,632 MW
1 Nov, 16:009,944 MW9,727 MW
1 Nov, 17:009,829 MW9,789 MW
1 Nov, 18:009,617 MW9,885 MW
1 Nov, 19:009,512 MW9,917 MW
1 Nov, 20:009,423 MW9,774 MW
1 Nov, 21:009,122 MW9,571 MW
1 Nov, 22:009,276 MW9,691 MW
1 Nov, 23:009,246 MW9,642 MW
2 Nov, 00:009,153 MW9,349 MW
2 Nov, 01:009,157 MW9,035 MW
2 Nov, 02:009,122 MW9,016 MW
2 Nov, 03:008,967 MW9,074 MW
2 Nov, 04:009,015 MW9,104 MW
2 Nov, 05:008,994 MW9,257 MW
2 Nov, 06:009,100 MW9,767 MW
2 Nov, 07:009,361 MW10,125 MW
2 Nov, 08:009,288 MW10,199 MW
2 Nov, 09:009,462 MW10,241 MW
2 Nov, 10:009,443 MW10,271 MW
2 Nov, 11:009,428 MW10,192 MW
2 Nov, 12:009,434 MW10,136 MW
2 Nov, 13:009,319 MW10,067 MW
2 Nov, 14:009,247 MW10,018 MW
2 Nov, 15:009,319 MW10,033 MW
2 Nov, 16:009,595 MW10,038 MW
2 Nov, 17:009,662 MW10,158 MW
2 Nov, 18:009,919 MW10,213 MW
2 Nov, 19:0010,085 MW10,270 MW
2 Nov, 20:0010,221 MW10,165 MW
2 Nov, 21:0010,141 MW9,978 MW
2 Nov, 22:0010,390 MW10,053 MW
2 Nov, 23:0010,497 MW9,928 MW
3 Nov, 00:0010,536 MW9,730 MW
3 Nov, 01:0010,230 MW9,652 MW
3 Nov, 02:0010,181 MW9,549 MW
3 Nov, 03:0010,447 MW9,391 MW
3 Nov, 04:0010,327 MW9,376 MW
3 Nov, 05:0010,543 MW9,488 MW
3 Nov, 06:0010,987 MW9,983 MW
3 Nov, 07:0011,325 MW10,292 MW
3 Nov, 08:0011,524 MW10,367 MW
3 Nov, 09:0011,584 MW10,364 MW
3 Nov, 10:0011,602 MW10,371 MW
3 Nov, 11:0011,367 MW10,396 MW
3 Nov, 12:0011,122 MW10,328 MW
3 Nov, 13:0011,055 MW10,245 MW
3 Nov, 14:0010,892 MW10,100 MW
3 Nov, 15:0010,731 MW10,142 MW
3 Nov, 16:0011,031 MW10,314 MW
3 Nov, 17:0011,013 MW10,369 MW
3 Nov, 18:0010,854 MW10,446 MW
3 Nov, 19:0010,487 MW10,522 MW
3 Nov, 20:009,992 MW10,462 MW
3 Nov, 21:009,512 MW10,312 MW
3 Nov, 22:009,457 MW10,335 MW
3 Nov, 23:009,254 MW10,109 MW
4 Nov, 00:009,328 MW9,736 MW
4 Nov, 01:009,595 MW9,344 MW
4 Nov, 02:0010,024 MW9,490 MW
4 Nov, 03:0010,376 MW9,712 MW
4 Nov, 04:0010,736 MW9,865 MW
4 Nov, 05:0011,013 MW10,090 MW
4 Nov, 06:0011,562 MW10,565 MW
4 Nov, 07:0011,872 MW10,833 MW
4 Nov, 08:0011,907 MW10,912 MW
4 Nov, 09:0012,250 MW10,945 MW
4 Nov, 10:0012,330 MW10,926 MW
4 Nov, 11:0012,307 MW10,874 MW
4 Nov, 12:0012,136 MW10,809 MW
4 Nov, 13:0011,876 MW10,605 MW
4 Nov, 14:0011,665 MW10,508 MW
4 Nov, 15:0011,638 MW10,516 MW
4 Nov, 16:0011,628 MW10,661 MW
4 Nov, 17:0011,938 MW10,705 MW
4 Nov, 18:0011,908 MW10,707 MW
4 Nov, 19:0011,918 MW10,629 MW
4 Nov, 20:0011,660 MW10,437 MW
4 Nov, 21:0011,232 MW10,161 MW
4 Nov, 22:0011,222 MW10,162 MW
4 Nov, 23:0010,989 MW10,131 MW
5 Nov, 00:0010,726 MW9,736 MW
5 Nov, 01:0010,393 MW10,170 MW
5 Nov, 02:0010,108 MW10,022 MW
5 Nov, 03:0010,066 MW9,915 MW
5 Nov, 04:009,928 MW9,852 MW
5 Nov, 05:0010,137 MW10,046 MW
5 Nov, 06:0010,771 MW10,631 MW
5 Nov, 07:0011,215 MW10,989 MW
5 Nov, 08:0011,358 MW11,091 MW
5 Nov, 09:0011,498 MW11,095 MW
5 Nov, 10:0011,446 MW11,130 MW
5 Nov, 11:0011,410 MW11,037 MW
5 Nov, 12:0011,191 MW10,957 MW
5 Nov, 13:0011,138 MW10,900 MW
5 Nov, 14:0011,166 MW10,803 MW
5 Nov, 15:0011,276 MW10,859 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fi_2026,
  title = {{Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.