Statistics
Page built 2026-11-05
Data as of 2026-11-05
Search
Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bulgaria was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 677 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 73% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 845 MW (15.4%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Sofia).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Bulgaria was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 677 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 73% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 845 MW (15.4%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 EET (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Bulgaria came 29 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 163 MW, against average demand of 4,205 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

677 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.9%
Bias+0.7%
Hours within 5%73%
Worst miss845 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+17 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 845 MW (15.4%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 EET (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,626 MW, reported 5,471 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Bulgaria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bulgaria over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 29 Oct, 11:0030 Oct, 11:0031 Oct, 11:001 Nov, 11:002 Nov, 11:003 Nov, 11:004 Nov, 11:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bulgaria over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 11:004,919 MW4,940 MW
29 Oct, 12:004,882 MW4,926 MW
29 Oct, 13:004,912 MW4,925 MW
29 Oct, 14:004,850 MW4,917 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,865 MW4,910 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,910 MW4,914 MW
29 Oct, 17:005,093 MW4,995 MW
29 Oct, 18:005,286 MW5,270 MW
29 Oct, 19:005,251 MW5,476 MW
29 Oct, 20:005,052 MW5,282 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,738 MW4,940 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,447 MW4,573 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,152 MW4,215 MW
30 Oct, 00:003,897 MW3,908 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,717 MW3,777 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,667 MW3,716 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,672 MW3,694 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,706 MW3,715 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,815 MW3,835 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,204 MW4,273 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,508 MW4,667 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,870 MW4,967 MW
30 Oct, 09:005,064 MW5,051 MW
30 Oct, 10:005,087 MW4,971 MW
30 Oct, 11:005,112 MW4,926 MW
30 Oct, 12:005,066 MW4,862 MW
30 Oct, 13:005,009 MW4,855 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,931 MW4,818 MW
30 Oct, 15:004,914 MW4,797 MW
30 Oct, 16:004,919 MW4,807 MW
30 Oct, 17:005,117 MW4,883 MW
30 Oct, 18:005,295 MW5,083 MW
30 Oct, 19:005,213 MW5,212 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,974 MW5,043 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,680 MW4,757 MW
30 Oct, 22:004,443 MW4,452 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,184 MW4,151 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,945 MW3,922 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,732 MW3,758 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,623 MW3,675 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,591 MW3,658 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,632 MW3,639 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,670 MW3,685 MW
31 Oct, 06:003,727 MW3,938 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,982 MW4,222 MW
31 Oct, 08:004,377 MW4,645 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,664 MW4,897 MW
31 Oct, 10:004,784 MW4,885 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,855 MW4,866 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,806 MW4,849 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,725 MW4,835 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,658 MW4,818 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,599 MW4,803 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,683 MW4,806 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,975 MW4,890 MW
31 Oct, 18:005,082 MW5,031 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,904 MW5,130 MW
31 Oct, 20:004,672 MW4,933 MW
31 Oct, 21:004,416 MW4,638 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,234 MW4,372 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,029 MW4,154 MW
1 Nov, 00:003,866 MW3,891 MW
1 Nov, 01:003,683 MW3,736 MW
1 Nov, 02:003,551 MW3,663 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,535 MW3,590 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,543 MW3,591 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,595 MW3,735 MW
1 Nov, 06:003,676 MW4,020 MW
1 Nov, 07:003,895 MW4,319 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,273 MW4,608 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,623 MW4,856 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,865 MW4,911 MW
1 Nov, 11:005,007 MW4,937 MW
1 Nov, 12:005,068 MW4,772 MW
1 Nov, 13:004,974 MW4,772 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,884 MW4,772 MW
1 Nov, 15:004,824 MW4,840 MW
1 Nov, 16:004,854 MW4,953 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,061 MW5,154 MW
1 Nov, 18:005,190 MW5,296 MW
1 Nov, 19:005,068 MW5,215 MW
1 Nov, 20:004,825 MW5,006 MW
1 Nov, 21:004,575 MW4,736 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,341 MW4,470 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,094 MW4,194 MW
2 Nov, 00:003,910 MW3,909 MW
2 Nov, 01:003,718 MW3,736 MW
2 Nov, 02:003,636 MW3,676 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,594 MW3,654 MW
2 Nov, 04:003,575 MW3,684 MW
2 Nov, 05:003,699 MW3,803 MW
2 Nov, 06:004,038 MW4,166 MW
2 Nov, 07:004,401 MW4,532 MW
2 Nov, 08:004,824 MW4,808 MW
2 Nov, 09:005,014 MW4,956 MW
2 Nov, 10:005,044 MW4,966 MW
2 Nov, 11:005,063 MW5,036 MW
2 Nov, 12:004,979 MW5,044 MW
2 Nov, 13:004,973 MW5,098 MW
2 Nov, 14:004,889 MW4,859 MW
2 Nov, 15:004,858 MW4,876 MW
2 Nov, 16:004,933 MW4,878 MW
2 Nov, 17:005,147 MW5,097 MW
2 Nov, 18:005,327 MW5,337 MW
2 Nov, 19:005,288 MW5,242 MW
2 Nov, 20:005,072 MW5,012 MW
2 Nov, 21:004,792 MW4,739 MW
2 Nov, 22:004,519 MW4,473 MW
2 Nov, 23:004,238 MW4,201 MW
3 Nov, 00:003,929 MW3,899 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,794 MW3,678 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,749 MW3,603 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,722 MW3,581 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,746 MW3,595 MW
3 Nov, 05:003,852 MW3,688 MW
3 Nov, 06:004,236 MW4,049 MW
3 Nov, 07:004,660 MW4,369 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,011 MW4,642 MW
3 Nov, 09:005,208 MW4,770 MW
3 Nov, 10:005,247 MW4,749 MW
3 Nov, 11:005,252 MW4,740 MW
3 Nov, 12:005,183 MW4,709 MW
3 Nov, 13:005,134 MW4,710 MW
3 Nov, 14:005,073 MW4,676 MW
3 Nov, 15:005,052 MW4,664 MW
3 Nov, 16:005,076 MW4,698 MW
3 Nov, 17:005,281 MW4,893 MW
3 Nov, 18:005,494 MW5,123 MW
3 Nov, 19:005,434 MW5,152 MW
3 Nov, 20:005,217 MW4,965 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,938 MW4,630 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,672 MW4,310 MW
3 Nov, 23:004,301 MW3,978 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,072 MW3,959 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,919 MW3,724 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,849 MW3,666 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,818 MW3,655 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,847 MW3,666 MW
4 Nov, 05:003,948 MW3,780 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,275 MW4,224 MW
4 Nov, 07:004,680 MW4,616 MW
4 Nov, 08:005,049 MW4,960 MW
4 Nov, 09:005,266 MW5,106 MW
4 Nov, 10:005,258 MW5,042 MW
4 Nov, 11:005,268 MW5,028 MW
4 Nov, 12:005,192 MW4,943 MW
4 Nov, 13:005,212 MW4,944 MW
4 Nov, 14:005,125 MW4,879 MW
4 Nov, 15:005,136 MW4,885 MW
4 Nov, 16:005,183 MW4,923 MW
4 Nov, 17:005,398 MW5,136 MW
4 Nov, 18:005,573 MW5,363 MW
4 Nov, 19:005,514 MW5,325 MW
4 Nov, 20:005,315 MW5,144 MW
4 Nov, 21:005,033 MW4,884 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,777 MW4,637 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,467 MW4,373 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,945 MW4,042 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,810 MW3,888 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,714 MW3,847 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,689 MW3,833 MW
5 Nov, 04:003,757 MW3,847 MW
5 Nov, 05:003,839 MW3,964 MW
5 Nov, 06:004,231 MW4,394 MW
5 Nov, 07:004,539 MW4,805 MW
5 Nov, 08:004,709 MW5,142 MW
5 Nov, 09:004,648 MW5,296 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,465 MW5,250 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (677 of 683 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bg_2026,
  title = {{Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.