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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 356 MW (7.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 356 MW (7.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-East (NO1) came 13 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 100 MW, against average demand of 4,001 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 33% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-1.0%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss356 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-45 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 356 MW (7.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,325 MW, reported 4,681 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway South-East (NO1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:003,887 MW4,041 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,985 MW4,125 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,219 MW4,290 MW
29 Oct, 17:004,338 MW4,343 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,323 MW4,343 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,305 MW4,302 MW
29 Oct, 20:004,270 MW4,250 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,177 MW4,178 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,046 MW4,006 MW
29 Oct, 23:003,825 MW3,805 MW
30 Oct, 00:003,599 MW3,511 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,505 MW3,370 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,414 MW3,311 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,381 MW3,256 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,399 MW3,296 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,550 MW3,449 MW
30 Oct, 06:003,941 MW3,845 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,367 MW4,263 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,447 MW4,381 MW
30 Oct, 09:004,414 MW4,345 MW
30 Oct, 10:004,329 MW4,237 MW
30 Oct, 11:004,195 MW4,149 MW
30 Oct, 12:004,070 MW4,091 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,976 MW4,128 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,004 MW4,146 MW
30 Oct, 15:004,087 MW4,221 MW
30 Oct, 16:004,266 MW4,358 MW
30 Oct, 17:004,396 MW4,440 MW
30 Oct, 18:004,373 MW4,470 MW
30 Oct, 19:004,285 MW4,396 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,156 MW4,325 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,043 MW4,193 MW
30 Oct, 22:003,920 MW4,067 MW
30 Oct, 23:003,768 MW3,877 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,614 MW3,712 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,509 MW3,565 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,429 MW3,456 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,389 MW3,416 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,389 MW3,397 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,418 MW3,442 MW
31 Oct, 06:003,507 MW3,569 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,651 MW3,781 MW
31 Oct, 08:003,837 MW3,899 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,028 MW4,026 MW
31 Oct, 10:004,127 MW4,086 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,158 MW4,091 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,153 MW4,090 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,148 MW4,066 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,176 MW4,129 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,225 MW4,175 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,307 MW4,279 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,300 MW4,366 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,204 MW4,344 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,090 MW4,255 MW
31 Oct, 20:003,967 MW4,121 MW
31 Oct, 21:003,861 MW3,981 MW
31 Oct, 22:003,749 MW3,828 MW
31 Oct, 23:003,600 MW3,660 MW
1 Nov, 00:003,453 MW3,442 MW
1 Nov, 01:003,345 MW3,325 MW
1 Nov, 02:003,248 MW3,251 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,183 MW3,187 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,146 MW3,166 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,151 MW3,138 MW
1 Nov, 06:003,189 MW3,246 MW
1 Nov, 07:003,285 MW3,430 MW
1 Nov, 08:003,422 MW3,566 MW
1 Nov, 09:003,626 MW3,713 MW
1 Nov, 10:003,768 MW3,770 MW
1 Nov, 11:003,830 MW3,797 MW
1 Nov, 12:003,885 MW3,802 MW
1 Nov, 13:003,906 MW3,809 MW
1 Nov, 14:003,943 MW3,848 MW
1 Nov, 15:004,025 MW3,965 MW
1 Nov, 16:004,166 MW4,101 MW
1 Nov, 17:004,242 MW4,199 MW
1 Nov, 18:004,251 MW4,235 MW
1 Nov, 19:004,226 MW4,215 MW
1 Nov, 20:004,171 MW4,162 MW
1 Nov, 21:004,111 MW4,047 MW
1 Nov, 22:003,983 MW3,883 MW
1 Nov, 23:003,788 MW3,699 MW
2 Nov, 00:003,580 MW3,597 MW
2 Nov, 01:003,489 MW3,478 MW
2 Nov, 02:003,459 MW3,440 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,438 MW3,441 MW
2 Nov, 04:003,487 MW3,532 MW
2 Nov, 05:003,633 MW3,720 MW
2 Nov, 06:004,128 MW4,157 MW
2 Nov, 07:004,624 MW4,569 MW
2 Nov, 08:004,748 MW4,647 MW
2 Nov, 09:004,634 MW4,602 MW
2 Nov, 10:004,467 MW4,498 MW
2 Nov, 11:004,335 MW4,382 MW
2 Nov, 12:004,247 MW4,322 MW
2 Nov, 13:004,189 MW4,281 MW
2 Nov, 14:004,199 MW4,349 MW
2 Nov, 15:004,329 MW4,499 MW
2 Nov, 16:004,624 MW4,662 MW
2 Nov, 17:004,761 MW4,777 MW
2 Nov, 18:004,773 MW4,802 MW
2 Nov, 19:004,776 MW4,773 MW
2 Nov, 20:004,738 MW4,739 MW
2 Nov, 21:004,654 MW4,652 MW
2 Nov, 22:004,502 MW4,469 MW
2 Nov, 23:004,263 MW4,245 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,086 MW3,962 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,975 MW3,845 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,910 MW3,764 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,881 MW3,718 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,896 MW3,723 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,027 MW3,877 MW
3 Nov, 06:004,478 MW4,309 MW
3 Nov, 07:004,973 MW4,761 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,070 MW4,839 MW
3 Nov, 09:004,974 MW4,738 MW
3 Nov, 10:004,809 MW4,603 MW
3 Nov, 11:004,648 MW4,467 MW
3 Nov, 12:004,517 MW4,418 MW
3 Nov, 13:004,434 MW4,408 MW
3 Nov, 14:004,462 MW4,521 MW
3 Nov, 15:004,575 MW4,637 MW
3 Nov, 16:004,845 MW4,785 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,972 MW4,863 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,974 MW4,845 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,937 MW4,795 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,898 MW4,727 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,801 MW4,581 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,636 MW4,372 MW
3 Nov, 23:004,410 MW4,121 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,179 MW3,985 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,045 MW3,880 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,979 MW3,821 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,935 MW3,791 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,951 MW3,827 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,115 MW4,000 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,576 MW4,440 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,058 MW4,858 MW
4 Nov, 08:005,165 MW4,935 MW
4 Nov, 09:005,102 MW4,811 MW
4 Nov, 10:004,960 MW4,676 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,810 MW4,569 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,736 MW4,480 MW
4 Nov, 13:004,678 MW4,463 MW
4 Nov, 14:004,674 MW4,477 MW
4 Nov, 15:004,785 MW4,567 MW
4 Nov, 16:005,044 MW4,726 MW
4 Nov, 17:005,154 MW4,822 MW
4 Nov, 18:005,119 MW4,833 MW
4 Nov, 19:005,084 MW4,809 MW
4 Nov, 20:005,036 MW4,729 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,947 MW4,621 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,800 MW4,445 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,538 MW4,199 MW
5 Nov, 00:004,341 MW4,118 MW
5 Nov, 01:004,232 MW3,972 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,079 MW3,893 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,015 MW3,871 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,026 MW3,892 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,182 MW4,034 MW
5 Nov, 06:004,628 MW4,477 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,134 MW4,928 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,224 MW5,035 MW
5 Nov, 09:005,139 MW4,916 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,963 MW4,773 MW
5 Nov, 11:004,776 MW4,638 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,653 MW4,561 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,555 MW4,535 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no1_2026,
  title = {{Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/}
}

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