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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 303 MW (9.1%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 303 MW (9.1%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-East (NO1) came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 74 MW, against average demand of 2,932 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 28% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-1.6%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss303 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-50 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 303 MW (9.1%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,029 MW, reported 3,333 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Norway South-East (NO1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Norway South-East (NO1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:002,658 MW2,733 MW
13 Sept, 15:002,709 MW2,754 MW
13 Sept, 16:002,790 MW2,813 MW
13 Sept, 17:002,881 MW2,887 MW
13 Sept, 18:002,997 MW2,965 MW
13 Sept, 19:003,125 MW3,013 MW
13 Sept, 20:003,244 MW3,095 MW
13 Sept, 21:003,217 MW3,093 MW
13 Sept, 22:003,073 MW2,983 MW
13 Sept, 23:002,862 MW2,858 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,706 MW2,716 MW
14 Sept, 01:002,601 MW2,550 MW
14 Sept, 02:002,555 MW2,471 MW
14 Sept, 03:002,531 MW2,419 MW
14 Sept, 04:002,546 MW2,419 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,680 MW2,538 MW
14 Sept, 06:003,074 MW2,880 MW
14 Sept, 07:003,468 MW3,254 MW
14 Sept, 08:003,570 MW3,348 MW
14 Sept, 09:003,549 MW3,331 MW
14 Sept, 10:003,495 MW3,290 MW
14 Sept, 11:003,444 MW3,220 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,416 MW3,249 MW
14 Sept, 13:003,386 MW3,233 MW
14 Sept, 14:003,392 MW3,276 MW
14 Sept, 15:003,400 MW3,298 MW
14 Sept, 16:003,438 MW3,348 MW
14 Sept, 17:003,424 MW3,372 MW
14 Sept, 18:003,401 MW3,381 MW
14 Sept, 19:003,461 MW3,391 MW
14 Sept, 20:003,509 MW3,374 MW
14 Sept, 21:003,417 MW3,291 MW
14 Sept, 22:003,273 MW3,127 MW
14 Sept, 23:003,017 MW2,923 MW
15 Sept, 00:002,772 MW2,799 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,613 MW2,647 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,525 MW2,554 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,474 MW2,480 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,457 MW2,466 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,553 MW2,576 MW
15 Sept, 06:002,919 MW2,940 MW
15 Sept, 07:003,319 MW3,350 MW
15 Sept, 08:003,426 MW3,466 MW
15 Sept, 09:003,441 MW3,463 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,431 MW3,436 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,459 MW3,371 MW
15 Sept, 12:003,489 MW3,390 MW
15 Sept, 13:003,489 MW3,397 MW
15 Sept, 14:003,491 MW3,412 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,516 MW3,440 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,602 MW3,491 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,611 MW3,529 MW
15 Sept, 18:003,569 MW3,511 MW
15 Sept, 19:003,577 MW3,476 MW
15 Sept, 20:003,554 MW3,429 MW
15 Sept, 21:003,426 MW3,310 MW
15 Sept, 22:003,246 MW3,150 MW
15 Sept, 23:002,988 MW2,915 MW
16 Sept, 00:002,731 MW2,664 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,587 MW2,500 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,516 MW2,425 MW
16 Sept, 03:002,470 MW2,393 MW
16 Sept, 04:002,455 MW2,390 MW
16 Sept, 05:002,577 MW2,518 MW
16 Sept, 06:002,956 MW2,858 MW
16 Sept, 07:003,313 MW3,216 MW
16 Sept, 08:003,372 MW3,343 MW
16 Sept, 09:003,320 MW3,294 MW
16 Sept, 10:003,221 MW3,229 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,143 MW3,162 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,097 MW3,139 MW
16 Sept, 13:003,079 MW3,120 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,061 MW3,112 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,125 MW3,163 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,245 MW3,271 MW
16 Sept, 17:003,298 MW3,306 MW
16 Sept, 18:003,299 MW3,309 MW
16 Sept, 19:003,370 MW3,268 MW
16 Sept, 20:003,421 MW3,278 MW
16 Sept, 21:003,368 MW3,235 MW
16 Sept, 22:003,177 MW3,107 MW
16 Sept, 23:002,937 MW2,897 MW
17 Sept, 00:002,726 MW2,728 MW
17 Sept, 01:002,582 MW2,591 MW
17 Sept, 02:002,505 MW2,555 MW
17 Sept, 03:002,455 MW2,521 MW
17 Sept, 04:002,455 MW2,524 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,571 MW2,647 MW
17 Sept, 06:002,955 MW2,998 MW
17 Sept, 07:003,350 MW3,394 MW
17 Sept, 08:003,435 MW3,517 MW
17 Sept, 09:003,403 MW3,463 MW
17 Sept, 10:003,333 MW3,362 MW
17 Sept, 11:003,245 MW3,316 MW
17 Sept, 12:003,202 MW3,304 MW
17 Sept, 13:003,166 MW3,317 MW
17 Sept, 14:003,190 MW3,350 MW
17 Sept, 15:003,283 MW3,376 MW
17 Sept, 16:003,467 MW3,486 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,489 MW3,494 MW
17 Sept, 18:003,484 MW3,514 MW
17 Sept, 19:003,523 MW3,491 MW
17 Sept, 20:003,545 MW3,464 MW
17 Sept, 21:003,425 MW3,383 MW
17 Sept, 22:003,277 MW3,235 MW
17 Sept, 23:003,046 MW3,008 MW
18 Sept, 00:002,843 MW2,749 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,714 MW2,584 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,622 MW2,515 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,553 MW2,461 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,542 MW2,484 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,633 MW2,593 MW
18 Sept, 06:002,969 MW2,919 MW
18 Sept, 07:003,348 MW3,292 MW
18 Sept, 08:00n/a3,423 MW
18 Sept, 09:003,468 MW3,437 MW
18 Sept, 10:003,401 MW3,412 MW
18 Sept, 11:003,367 MW3,339 MW
18 Sept, 12:003,262 MW3,305 MW
18 Sept, 13:003,191 MW3,283 MW
18 Sept, 14:003,183 MW3,269 MW
18 Sept, 15:003,207 MW3,272 MW
18 Sept, 16:003,300 MW3,325 MW
18 Sept, 17:003,341 MW3,361 MW
18 Sept, 18:003,334 MW3,345 MW
18 Sept, 19:003,363 MW3,313 MW
18 Sept, 20:003,345 MW3,262 MW
18 Sept, 21:003,222 MW3,163 MW
18 Sept, 22:003,093 MW3,053 MW
18 Sept, 23:002,951 MW2,869 MW
19 Sept, 00:002,776 MW2,743 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,645 MW2,618 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,544 MW2,507 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,511 MW2,441 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,477 MW2,417 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,505 MW2,399 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,575 MW2,500 MW
19 Sept, 07:002,685 MW2,660 MW
19 Sept, 08:00n/a2,773 MW
19 Sept, 09:003,091 MW2,871 MW
19 Sept, 10:003,176 MW2,938 MW
19 Sept, 11:003,128 MW2,919 MW
19 Sept, 12:003,075 MW2,890 MW
19 Sept, 13:003,025 MW2,850 MW
19 Sept, 14:002,981 MW2,838 MW
19 Sept, 15:002,975 MW2,868 MW
19 Sept, 16:003,056 MW2,952 MW
19 Sept, 17:003,121 MW3,037 MW
19 Sept, 18:003,155 MW3,092 MW
19 Sept, 19:003,200 MW3,104 MW
19 Sept, 20:003,166 MW3,080 MW
19 Sept, 21:003,053 MW2,998 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,967 MW2,903 MW
19 Sept, 23:002,858 MW2,743 MW
20 Sept, 00:002,735 MW2,649 MW
20 Sept, 01:002,624 MW2,529 MW
20 Sept, 02:002,546 MW2,462 MW
20 Sept, 03:002,513 MW2,417 MW
20 Sept, 04:002,492 MW2,402 MW
20 Sept, 05:002,511 MW2,393 MW
20 Sept, 06:002,562 MW2,469 MW
20 Sept, 07:002,615 MW2,596 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,751 MW2,675 MW
20 Sept, 09:002,912 MW2,771 MW
20 Sept, 10:003,063 MW2,837 MW
20 Sept, 11:003,094 MW2,858 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,073 MW2,875 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,088 MW2,849 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.