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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 898 MW (23.9%) too low at 5 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Belgrade).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 898 MW (23.9%) too low at 5 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Serbia came 23 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 129 MW, against average demand of 3,505 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 55% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.6%
Bias+0.9%
Hours within 5%75%
Worst miss898 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+24 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 898 MW (23.9%) too low at 5 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,861 MW, reported 3,759 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Serbia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Serbia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:003,026 MW3,597 MW
13 Sept, 15:003,025 MW3,456 MW
13 Sept, 16:003,064 MW3,444 MW
13 Sept, 17:003,097 MW3,463 MW
13 Sept, 18:003,231 MW3,500 MW
13 Sept, 19:003,491 MW3,679 MW
13 Sept, 20:003,594 MW3,731 MW
13 Sept, 21:003,476 MW3,606 MW
13 Sept, 22:003,307 MW3,433 MW
13 Sept, 23:003,093 MW3,237 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,885 MW2,903 MW
14 Sept, 01:002,665 MW2,679 MW
14 Sept, 02:002,534 MW2,524 MW
14 Sept, 03:002,467 MW2,447 MW
14 Sept, 04:002,505 MW2,484 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,616 MW2,632 MW
14 Sept, 06:002,994 MW2,947 MW
14 Sept, 07:003,336 MW3,348 MW
14 Sept, 08:003,506 MW3,538 MW
14 Sept, 09:003,553 MW3,611 MW
14 Sept, 10:003,470 MW3,599 MW
14 Sept, 11:003,485 MW3,624 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,480 MW3,619 MW
14 Sept, 13:003,490 MW3,600 MW
14 Sept, 14:003,555 MW3,546 MW
14 Sept, 15:003,524 MW3,533 MW
14 Sept, 16:003,561 MW3,519 MW
14 Sept, 17:003,613 MW3,570 MW
14 Sept, 18:003,717 MW3,691 MW
14 Sept, 19:003,890 MW3,845 MW
14 Sept, 20:003,885 MW3,872 MW
14 Sept, 21:003,759 MW3,763 MW
14 Sept, 22:003,510 MW3,535 MW
14 Sept, 23:003,299 MW3,297 MW
15 Sept, 00:003,076 MW3,058 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,842 MW2,821 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,660 MW2,685 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,615 MW2,616 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,632 MW2,644 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,764 MW2,737 MW
15 Sept, 06:003,062 MW3,071 MW
15 Sept, 07:003,453 MW3,412 MW
15 Sept, 08:003,621 MW3,526 MW
15 Sept, 09:003,654 MW3,573 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,486 MW3,547 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,486 MW3,545 MW
15 Sept, 12:003,477 MW3,556 MW
15 Sept, 13:003,451 MW3,541 MW
15 Sept, 14:003,457 MW3,512 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,496 MW3,475 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,458 MW3,500 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,618 MW3,509 MW
15 Sept, 18:003,719 MW3,653 MW
15 Sept, 19:003,939 MW3,865 MW
15 Sept, 20:003,909 MW3,908 MW
15 Sept, 21:003,761 MW3,779 MW
15 Sept, 22:003,522 MW3,550 MW
15 Sept, 23:003,296 MW3,329 MW
16 Sept, 00:003,027 MW3,112 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,781 MW2,873 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,637 MW2,722 MW
16 Sept, 03:002,562 MW2,634 MW
16 Sept, 04:002,592 MW2,657 MW
16 Sept, 05:002,736 MW2,758 MW
16 Sept, 06:003,086 MW3,074 MW
16 Sept, 07:003,394 MW3,381 MW
16 Sept, 08:003,450 MW3,527 MW
16 Sept, 09:003,398 MW3,482 MW
16 Sept, 10:003,296 MW3,450 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,293 MW3,490 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,307 MW3,551 MW
16 Sept, 13:003,331 MW3,554 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,312 MW3,563 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,471 MW3,556 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,477 MW3,594 MW
16 Sept, 17:003,597 MW3,626 MW
16 Sept, 18:003,773 MW3,730 MW
16 Sept, 19:004,018 MW3,900 MW
16 Sept, 20:004,032 MW3,964 MW
16 Sept, 21:003,891 MW3,849 MW
16 Sept, 22:003,580 MW3,634 MW
16 Sept, 23:003,303 MW3,414 MW
17 Sept, 00:003,066 MW3,140 MW
17 Sept, 01:002,810 MW2,894 MW
17 Sept, 02:002,680 MW2,753 MW
17 Sept, 03:002,623 MW2,688 MW
17 Sept, 04:002,624 MW2,720 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,765 MW2,863 MW
17 Sept, 06:003,069 MW3,141 MW
17 Sept, 07:003,357 MW3,476 MW
17 Sept, 08:003,473 MW3,603 MW
17 Sept, 09:003,408 MW3,571 MW
17 Sept, 10:003,358 MW3,565 MW
17 Sept, 11:003,405 MW3,612 MW
17 Sept, 12:003,433 MW3,666 MW
17 Sept, 13:003,488 MW3,696 MW
17 Sept, 14:003,495 MW3,688 MW
17 Sept, 15:003,551 MW3,700 MW
17 Sept, 16:003,675 MW3,731 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,798 MW3,792 MW
17 Sept, 18:003,876 MW3,875 MW
17 Sept, 19:004,091 MW4,051 MW
17 Sept, 20:004,040 MW4,068 MW
17 Sept, 21:003,847 MW3,899 MW
17 Sept, 22:003,583 MW3,654 MW
17 Sept, 23:003,331 MW3,394 MW
18 Sept, 00:003,102 MW3,157 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,832 MW2,886 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,664 MW2,763 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,640 MW2,706 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,690 MW2,727 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,819 MW2,845 MW
18 Sept, 06:003,128 MW3,207 MW
18 Sept, 07:003,581 MW3,506 MW
18 Sept, 08:003,691 MW3,612 MW
18 Sept, 09:003,561 MW3,603 MW
18 Sept, 10:003,432 MW3,579 MW
18 Sept, 11:003,268 MW3,586 MW
18 Sept, 12:003,421 MW3,633 MW
18 Sept, 13:003,396 MW3,646 MW
18 Sept, 14:003,423 MW3,651 MW
18 Sept, 15:003,482 MW3,675 MW
18 Sept, 16:003,598 MW3,680 MW
18 Sept, 17:003,705 MW3,756 MW
18 Sept, 18:003,833 MW3,839 MW
18 Sept, 19:004,052 MW4,088 MW
18 Sept, 20:004,020 MW4,056 MW
18 Sept, 21:003,795 MW3,882 MW
18 Sept, 22:003,545 MW3,636 MW
18 Sept, 23:003,357 MW3,388 MW
19 Sept, 00:003,159 MW3,125 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,949 MW2,873 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,797 MW2,734 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,704 MW2,641 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,699 MW2,643 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,753 MW2,692 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,849 MW2,787 MW
19 Sept, 07:003,103 MW3,022 MW
19 Sept, 08:003,238 MW3,232 MW
19 Sept, 09:003,338 MW3,326 MW
19 Sept, 10:003,264 MW3,338 MW
19 Sept, 11:003,332 MW3,388 MW
19 Sept, 12:003,350 MW3,423 MW
19 Sept, 13:003,399 MW3,430 MW
19 Sept, 14:003,373 MW3,386 MW
19 Sept, 15:003,353 MW3,360 MW
19 Sept, 16:003,416 MW3,378 MW
19 Sept, 17:003,476 MW3,383 MW
19 Sept, 18:003,550 MW3,446 MW
19 Sept, 19:003,747 MW3,587 MW
19 Sept, 20:003,757 MW3,650 MW
19 Sept, 21:003,549 MW3,532 MW
19 Sept, 22:003,370 MW3,361 MW
19 Sept, 23:003,219 MW3,185 MW
20 Sept, 00:003,068 MW3,049 MW
20 Sept, 01:002,829 MW2,803 MW
20 Sept, 02:002,675 MW2,631 MW
20 Sept, 03:002,582 MW2,515 MW
20 Sept, 04:002,567 MW2,485 MW
20 Sept, 05:002,607 MW2,469 MW
20 Sept, 06:002,630 MW2,544 MW
20 Sept, 07:002,754 MW2,715 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,896 MW2,958 MW
20 Sept, 09:003,048 MW3,126 MW
20 Sept, 10:003,100 MW3,236 MW
20 Sept, 11:003,155 MW3,296 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,176 MW3,318 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,169 MW3,314 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.