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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 500 MW (11.9%) too low at 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Belgrade).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 500 MW (11.9%) too low at 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Serbia came 26 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 131 MW, against average demand of 3,925 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 42% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.4%
Bias-0.5%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss500 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-26 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 500 MW (11.9%) too low at 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,696 MW, reported 4,196 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Serbia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:004,453 MW4,447 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,533 MW4,454 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,684 MW4,587 MW
29 Oct, 17:004,899 MW4,717 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,790 MW4,773 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,795 MW4,750 MW
29 Oct, 20:004,821 MW4,680 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,528 MW4,505 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,342 MW4,354 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,174 MW4,266 MW
30 Oct, 00:004,013 MW4,073 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,741 MW3,802 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,494 MW3,576 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,334 MW3,457 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,352 MW3,459 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,553 MW3,718 MW
30 Oct, 06:003,921 MW4,049 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,345 MW4,380 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,524 MW4,460 MW
30 Oct, 09:004,510 MW4,400 MW
30 Oct, 10:004,500 MW4,334 MW
30 Oct, 11:004,514 MW4,340 MW
30 Oct, 12:004,516 MW4,396 MW
30 Oct, 13:004,527 MW4,407 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,510 MW4,393 MW
30 Oct, 15:004,486 MW4,447 MW
30 Oct, 16:004,691 MW4,587 MW
30 Oct, 17:004,777 MW4,747 MW
30 Oct, 18:004,759 MW4,810 MW
30 Oct, 19:004,696 MW4,776 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,579 MW4,719 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,504 MW4,518 MW
30 Oct, 22:004,266 MW4,375 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,144 MW4,267 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,060 MW4,324 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,709 MW4,060 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,527 MW3,829 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,422 MW3,659 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,382 MW3,613 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,407 MW3,670 MW
31 Oct, 06:003,542 MW3,815 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,856 MW4,058 MW
31 Oct, 08:004,094 MW4,325 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,224 MW4,416 MW
31 Oct, 10:004,365 MW4,438 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,411 MW4,389 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,450 MW4,375 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,440 MW4,346 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,346 MW4,270 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,319 MW4,252 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,399 MW4,344 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,467 MW4,495 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,419 MW4,564 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,378 MW4,501 MW
31 Oct, 20:004,393 MW4,433 MW
31 Oct, 21:004,179 MW4,326 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,086 MW4,264 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,053 MW4,229 MW
1 Nov, 00:003,929 MW4,111 MW
1 Nov, 01:003,712 MW3,872 MW
1 Nov, 02:003,519 MW3,613 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,341 MW3,439 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,330 MW3,379 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,386 MW3,365 MW
1 Nov, 06:003,359 MW3,430 MW
1 Nov, 07:003,531 MW3,592 MW
1 Nov, 08:003,886 MW3,875 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,087 MW4,093 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,251 MW4,197 MW
1 Nov, 11:004,364 MW4,258 MW
1 Nov, 12:004,418 MW4,271 MW
1 Nov, 13:004,386 MW4,232 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,335 MW4,119 MW
1 Nov, 15:004,292 MW4,150 MW
1 Nov, 16:004,412 MW4,252 MW
1 Nov, 17:004,478 MW4,352 MW
1 Nov, 18:004,348 MW4,384 MW
1 Nov, 19:004,332 MW4,393 MW
1 Nov, 20:004,381 MW4,401 MW
1 Nov, 21:004,265 MW4,310 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,195 MW4,259 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,127 MW4,179 MW
2 Nov, 00:003,870 MW3,692 MW
2 Nov, 01:003,666 MW3,397 MW
2 Nov, 02:003,410 MW3,192 MW
2 Nov, 03:003,222 MW3,068 MW
2 Nov, 04:003,273 MW3,081 MW
2 Nov, 05:003,461 MW3,248 MW
2 Nov, 06:003,850 MW3,651 MW
2 Nov, 07:004,288 MW4,099 MW
2 Nov, 08:004,496 MW4,287 MW
2 Nov, 09:004,581 MW4,300 MW
2 Nov, 10:004,599 MW4,261 MW
2 Nov, 11:004,575 MW4,263 MW
2 Nov, 12:004,702 MW4,235 MW
2 Nov, 13:004,595 MW4,212 MW
2 Nov, 14:004,544 MW4,172 MW
2 Nov, 15:004,602 MW4,194 MW
2 Nov, 16:004,751 MW4,406 MW
2 Nov, 17:004,820 MW4,543 MW
2 Nov, 18:004,822 MW4,526 MW
2 Nov, 19:004,791 MW4,481 MW
2 Nov, 20:004,706 MW4,433 MW
2 Nov, 21:004,537 MW4,269 MW
2 Nov, 22:004,361 MW4,132 MW
2 Nov, 23:004,203 MW4,037 MW
3 Nov, 00:003,988 MW4,045 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,770 MW3,756 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,562 MW3,544 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,387 MW3,420 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,422 MW3,431 MW
3 Nov, 05:003,607 MW3,600 MW
3 Nov, 06:003,918 MW3,974 MW
3 Nov, 07:004,417 MW4,392 MW
3 Nov, 08:004,658 MW4,560 MW
3 Nov, 09:004,665 MW4,571 MW
3 Nov, 10:004,670 MW4,557 MW
3 Nov, 11:004,673 MW4,485 MW
3 Nov, 12:004,707 MW4,547 MW
3 Nov, 13:004,690 MW4,557 MW
3 Nov, 14:004,547 MW4,545 MW
3 Nov, 15:004,618 MW4,534 MW
3 Nov, 16:004,797 MW4,671 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,813 MW4,794 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,838 MW4,775 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,786 MW4,734 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,772 MW4,673 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,542 MW4,511 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,355 MW4,351 MW
3 Nov, 23:004,224 MW4,223 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,093 MW4,055 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,844 MW3,775 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,592 MW3,551 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,475 MW3,408 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,441 MW3,426 MW
4 Nov, 05:003,626 MW3,602 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,023 MW3,978 MW
4 Nov, 07:004,417 MW4,396 MW
4 Nov, 08:004,605 MW4,574 MW
4 Nov, 09:004,679 MW4,595 MW
4 Nov, 10:004,670 MW4,601 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,657 MW4,509 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,720 MW4,560 MW
4 Nov, 13:004,717 MW4,570 MW
4 Nov, 14:004,683 MW4,552 MW
4 Nov, 15:004,683 MW4,541 MW
4 Nov, 16:004,839 MW4,695 MW
4 Nov, 17:004,944 MW4,789 MW
4 Nov, 18:004,900 MW4,790 MW
4 Nov, 19:004,866 MW4,757 MW
4 Nov, 20:004,810 MW4,697 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,610 MW4,526 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,453 MW4,368 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,294 MW4,239 MW
5 Nov, 00:004,179 MW4,104 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,892 MW3,818 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,669 MW3,589 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,503 MW3,473 MW
5 Nov, 04:003,511 MW3,496 MW
5 Nov, 05:003,683 MW3,667 MW
5 Nov, 06:004,036 MW4,089 MW
5 Nov, 07:004,422 MW4,492 MW
5 Nov, 08:004,581 MW4,637 MW
5 Nov, 09:004,621 MW4,648 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,554 MW4,603 MW
5 Nov, 11:004,520 MW4,554 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,527 MW4,526 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,542 MW4,504 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_rs_2026,
  title = {{Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/}
}

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