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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 349 MW (7.6%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 349 MW (7.6%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-West (NO2) came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 101 MW, against average demand of 4,286 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 21% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.3%
Bias-1.8%
Hours within 5%92%
Worst miss349 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-82 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 349 MW (7.6%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 21:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 4,225 MW, reported 4,575 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway South-West (NO2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:004,397 MW4,199 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,467 MW4,207 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,581 MW4,282 MW
29 Oct, 17:004,645 MW4,345 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,628 MW4,366 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,637 MW4,363 MW
29 Oct, 20:004,619 MW4,331 MW
29 Oct, 21:004,575 MW4,225 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,462 MW4,130 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,312 MW4,018 MW
30 Oct, 00:004,202 MW3,958 MW
30 Oct, 01:004,097 MW3,876 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,056 MW3,831 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,022 MW3,809 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,021 MW3,848 MW
30 Oct, 05:004,081 MW3,877 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,331 MW4,096 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,591 MW4,314 MW
30 Oct, 08:004,629 MW4,388 MW
30 Oct, 09:004,591 MW4,312 MW
30 Oct, 10:004,580 MW4,300 MW
30 Oct, 11:004,553 MW4,252 MW
30 Oct, 12:004,527 MW4,209 MW
30 Oct, 13:004,485 MW4,174 MW
30 Oct, 14:004,482 MW4,187 MW
30 Oct, 15:004,492 MW4,207 MW
30 Oct, 16:004,589 MW4,288 MW
30 Oct, 17:004,669 MW4,364 MW
30 Oct, 18:004,672 MW4,360 MW
30 Oct, 19:004,622 MW4,369 MW
30 Oct, 20:004,525 MW4,310 MW
30 Oct, 21:004,438 MW4,238 MW
30 Oct, 22:004,371 MW4,165 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,275 MW4,041 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,189 MW4,044 MW
31 Oct, 01:004,126 MW3,975 MW
31 Oct, 02:004,077 MW3,952 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,039 MW3,911 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,034 MW3,887 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,045 MW3,861 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,115 MW3,967 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,207 MW4,065 MW
31 Oct, 08:004,319 MW4,144 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,393 MW4,190 MW
31 Oct, 10:004,437 MW4,223 MW
31 Oct, 11:004,416 MW4,209 MW
31 Oct, 12:004,423 MW4,199 MW
31 Oct, 13:004,436 MW4,151 MW
31 Oct, 14:004,420 MW4,161 MW
31 Oct, 15:004,438 MW4,189 MW
31 Oct, 16:004,505 MW4,271 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,533 MW4,355 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,480 MW4,384 MW
31 Oct, 19:004,421 MW4,356 MW
31 Oct, 20:004,364 MW4,279 MW
31 Oct, 21:004,301 MW4,183 MW
31 Oct, 22:004,239 MW4,103 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,152 MW3,995 MW
1 Nov, 00:004,067 MW4,080 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,011 MW4,037 MW
1 Nov, 02:003,956 MW3,987 MW
1 Nov, 03:003,925 MW3,950 MW
1 Nov, 04:003,917 MW3,907 MW
1 Nov, 05:003,918 MW3,886 MW
1 Nov, 06:003,971 MW3,940 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,022 MW4,024 MW
1 Nov, 08:004,109 MW4,090 MW
1 Nov, 09:004,223 MW4,144 MW
1 Nov, 10:004,254 MW4,208 MW
1 Nov, 11:004,274 MW4,210 MW
1 Nov, 12:004,284 MW4,195 MW
1 Nov, 13:004,277 MW4,211 MW
1 Nov, 14:004,293 MW4,236 MW
1 Nov, 15:004,337 MW4,274 MW
1 Nov, 16:004,416 MW4,360 MW
1 Nov, 17:004,480 MW4,441 MW
1 Nov, 18:004,489 MW4,491 MW
1 Nov, 19:004,493 MW4,491 MW
1 Nov, 20:004,468 MW4,456 MW
1 Nov, 21:004,434 MW4,374 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,366 MW4,299 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,266 MW4,190 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,180 MW4,087 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,131 MW4,073 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,110 MW4,006 MW
2 Nov, 03:004,093 MW4,006 MW
2 Nov, 04:004,121 MW4,039 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,231 MW4,117 MW
2 Nov, 06:004,513 MW4,354 MW
2 Nov, 07:004,787 MW4,603 MW
2 Nov, 08:004,852 MW4,670 MW
2 Nov, 09:004,803 MW4,634 MW
2 Nov, 10:004,423 MW4,563 MW
2 Nov, 11:004,559 MW4,500 MW
2 Nov, 12:004,536 MW4,472 MW
2 Nov, 13:004,505 MW4,455 MW
2 Nov, 14:004,510 MW4,454 MW
2 Nov, 15:004,572 MW4,484 MW
2 Nov, 16:004,698 MW4,560 MW
2 Nov, 17:004,764 MW4,629 MW
2 Nov, 18:004,796 MW4,678 MW
2 Nov, 19:004,824 MW4,667 MW
2 Nov, 20:004,807 MW4,661 MW
2 Nov, 21:004,786 MW4,590 MW
2 Nov, 22:004,700 MW4,495 MW
2 Nov, 23:004,552 MW4,376 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,454 MW4,330 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,402 MW4,288 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,373 MW4,260 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,350 MW4,250 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,367 MW4,280 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,472 MW4,427 MW
3 Nov, 06:004,744 MW4,714 MW
3 Nov, 07:00n/a4,951 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,091 MW4,977 MW
3 Nov, 09:004,973 MW4,890 MW
3 Nov, 10:004,792 MW4,747 MW
3 Nov, 11:004,685 MW4,647 MW
3 Nov, 12:004,638 MW4,601 MW
3 Nov, 13:004,591 MW4,569 MW
3 Nov, 14:004,615 MW4,596 MW
3 Nov, 15:004,716 MW4,643 MW
3 Nov, 16:004,880 MW4,716 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,954 MW4,780 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,973 MW4,810 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,991 MW4,796 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,975 MW4,741 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,912 MW4,663 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,821 MW4,555 MW
3 Nov, 23:004,680 MW4,429 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,574 MW4,441 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,484 MW4,365 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,448 MW4,344 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,437 MW4,338 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,457 MW4,342 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,574 MW4,473 MW
4 Nov, 06:004,846 MW4,728 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,131 MW4,972 MW
4 Nov, 08:005,185 MW5,008 MW
4 Nov, 09:005,113 MW4,913 MW
4 Nov, 10:004,973 MW4,770 MW
4 Nov, 11:004,861 MW4,700 MW
4 Nov, 12:004,785 MW4,652 MW
4 Nov, 13:004,749 MW4,630 MW
4 Nov, 14:004,730 MW4,639 MW
4 Nov, 15:004,828 MW4,693 MW
4 Nov, 16:004,976 MW4,755 MW
4 Nov, 17:005,036 MW4,816 MW
4 Nov, 18:005,033 MW4,813 MW
4 Nov, 19:005,059 MW4,816 MW
4 Nov, 20:005,034 MW4,771 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,969 MW4,686 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,865 MW4,588 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,710 MW4,451 MW
5 Nov, 00:004,606 MW4,440 MW
5 Nov, 01:004,531 MW4,357 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,478 MW4,314 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,447 MW4,296 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,465 MW4,292 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,555 MW4,383 MW
5 Nov, 06:004,828 MW4,652 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,112 MW4,913 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,138 MW4,968 MW
5 Nov, 09:005,061 MW4,870 MW
5 Nov, 10:004,902 MW4,740 MW
5 Nov, 11:004,793 MW4,642 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,716 MW4,603 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,661 MW4,568 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no2/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no2/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no2_2026,
  title = {{Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no2/}
}

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