Statistics
Page built 2026-09-21
Data as of 2026-09-20
Search
Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Norway South-West (NO2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 683 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 249 MW (6.4%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 683 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 249 MW (6.4%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-West (NO2) came 5 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 65 MW, against average demand of 3,660 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 21% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

683 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error1.8%
Bias-1.3%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss249 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-49 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 249 MW (6.4%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,668 MW, reported 3,917 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Norway South-West (NO2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-West (NO2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Norway South-West (NO2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:003,438 MW3,474 MW
13 Sept, 15:003,448 MW3,482 MW
13 Sept, 16:003,476 MW3,512 MW
13 Sept, 17:003,577 MW3,571 MW
13 Sept, 18:003,659 MW3,643 MW
13 Sept, 19:003,751 MW3,688 MW
13 Sept, 20:003,836 MW3,742 MW
13 Sept, 21:003,822 MW3,721 MW
13 Sept, 22:003,744 MW3,664 MW
13 Sept, 23:003,626 MW3,577 MW
14 Sept, 00:003,508 MW3,446 MW
14 Sept, 01:003,427 MW3,387 MW
14 Sept, 02:003,404 MW3,351 MW
14 Sept, 03:003,414 MW3,356 MW
14 Sept, 04:003,444 MW3,370 MW
14 Sept, 05:003,524 MW3,436 MW
14 Sept, 06:003,778 MW3,655 MW
14 Sept, 07:004,008 MW3,895 MW
14 Sept, 08:004,063 MW3,953 MW
14 Sept, 09:004,075 MW3,931 MW
14 Sept, 10:003,981 MW3,875 MW
14 Sept, 11:003,892 MW3,825 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,887 MW3,794 MW
14 Sept, 13:003,837 MW3,791 MW
14 Sept, 14:003,819 MW3,803 MW
14 Sept, 15:003,850 MW3,826 MW
14 Sept, 16:003,907 MW3,864 MW
14 Sept, 17:003,914 MW3,885 MW
14 Sept, 18:003,930 MW3,925 MW
14 Sept, 19:003,967 MW3,959 MW
14 Sept, 20:004,011 MW3,972 MW
14 Sept, 21:003,960 MW3,899 MW
14 Sept, 22:003,837 MW3,797 MW
14 Sept, 23:003,673 MW3,639 MW
15 Sept, 00:003,520 MW3,522 MW
15 Sept, 01:003,423 MW3,458 MW
15 Sept, 02:003,354 MW3,398 MW
15 Sept, 03:003,339 MW3,366 MW
15 Sept, 04:003,344 MW3,367 MW
15 Sept, 05:003,400 MW3,459 MW
15 Sept, 06:003,629 MW3,671 MW
15 Sept, 07:003,853 MW3,880 MW
15 Sept, 08:003,902 MW3,936 MW
15 Sept, 09:003,881 MW3,895 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,850 MW3,842 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,859 MW3,819 MW
15 Sept, 12:003,871 MW3,804 MW
15 Sept, 13:003,892 MW3,804 MW
15 Sept, 14:003,904 MW3,821 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,925 MW3,834 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,942 MW3,867 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,914 MW3,879 MW
15 Sept, 18:003,928 MW3,897 MW
15 Sept, 19:003,947 MW3,921 MW
15 Sept, 20:003,974 MW3,899 MW
15 Sept, 21:003,908 MW3,835 MW
15 Sept, 22:003,786 MW3,736 MW
15 Sept, 23:003,617 MW3,606 MW
16 Sept, 00:003,516 MW3,451 MW
16 Sept, 01:003,435 MW3,363 MW
16 Sept, 02:003,403 MW3,319 MW
16 Sept, 03:003,384 MW3,308 MW
16 Sept, 04:003,394 MW3,314 MW
16 Sept, 05:003,474 MW3,388 MW
16 Sept, 06:003,734 MW3,598 MW
16 Sept, 07:003,952 MW3,835 MW
16 Sept, 08:003,994 MW3,908 MW
16 Sept, 09:003,956 MW3,888 MW
16 Sept, 10:003,853 MW3,834 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,705 MW3,779 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,760 MW3,765 MW
16 Sept, 13:003,755 MW3,758 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,720 MW3,774 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,723 MW3,786 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,796 MW3,820 MW
16 Sept, 17:003,808 MW3,849 MW
16 Sept, 18:003,829 MW3,865 MW
16 Sept, 19:003,862 MW3,909 MW
16 Sept, 20:003,929 MW3,917 MW
16 Sept, 21:003,915 MW3,877 MW
16 Sept, 22:003,818 MW3,803 MW
16 Sept, 23:003,653 MW3,672 MW
17 Sept, 00:003,573 MW3,554 MW
17 Sept, 01:003,476 MW3,464 MW
17 Sept, 02:003,467 MW3,421 MW
17 Sept, 03:003,457 MW3,407 MW
17 Sept, 04:003,472 MW3,410 MW
17 Sept, 05:003,546 MW3,473 MW
17 Sept, 06:003,791 MW3,667 MW
17 Sept, 07:004,006 MW3,909 MW
17 Sept, 08:004,046 MW3,976 MW
17 Sept, 09:004,012 MW3,948 MW
17 Sept, 10:003,982 MW3,903 MW
17 Sept, 11:003,987 MW3,880 MW
17 Sept, 12:003,999 MW3,875 MW
17 Sept, 13:004,015 MW3,861 MW
17 Sept, 14:004,015 MW3,897 MW
17 Sept, 15:004,023 MW3,914 MW
17 Sept, 16:004,042 MW3,958 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,994 MW3,971 MW
17 Sept, 18:004,022 MW3,988 MW
17 Sept, 19:004,063 MW3,982 MW
17 Sept, 20:004,079 MW3,966 MW
17 Sept, 21:004,004 MW3,883 MW
17 Sept, 22:003,899 MW3,788 MW
17 Sept, 23:003,747 MW3,654 MW
18 Sept, 00:003,617 MW3,576 MW
18 Sept, 01:003,552 MW3,497 MW
18 Sept, 02:003,513 MW3,446 MW
18 Sept, 03:003,460 MW3,419 MW
18 Sept, 04:003,452 MW3,419 MW
18 Sept, 05:003,514 MW3,497 MW
18 Sept, 06:003,717 MW3,687 MW
18 Sept, 07:003,952 MW3,891 MW
18 Sept, 08:00n/a3,943 MW
18 Sept, 09:003,999 MW3,923 MW
18 Sept, 10:003,995 MW3,903 MW
18 Sept, 11:003,978 MW3,878 MW
18 Sept, 12:003,942 MW3,832 MW
18 Sept, 13:003,912 MW3,812 MW
18 Sept, 14:003,883 MW3,810 MW
18 Sept, 15:003,888 MW3,818 MW
18 Sept, 16:003,924 MW3,828 MW
18 Sept, 17:003,928 MW3,860 MW
18 Sept, 18:003,925 MW3,899 MW
18 Sept, 19:003,940 MW3,912 MW
18 Sept, 20:003,906 MW3,887 MW
18 Sept, 21:003,816 MW3,805 MW
18 Sept, 22:003,699 MW3,733 MW
18 Sept, 23:003,589 MW3,626 MW
19 Sept, 00:003,528 MW3,527 MW
19 Sept, 01:003,473 MW3,465 MW
19 Sept, 02:003,422 MW3,403 MW
19 Sept, 03:003,385 MW3,389 MW
19 Sept, 04:003,371 MW3,358 MW
19 Sept, 05:003,380 MW3,341 MW
19 Sept, 06:003,400 MW3,411 MW
19 Sept, 07:003,444 MW3,486 MW
19 Sept, 08:003,580 MW3,538 MW
19 Sept, 09:003,702 MW3,588 MW
19 Sept, 10:003,752 MW3,630 MW
19 Sept, 11:003,737 MW3,623 MW
19 Sept, 12:003,708 MW3,615 MW
19 Sept, 13:003,674 MW3,588 MW
19 Sept, 14:003,667 MW3,572 MW
19 Sept, 15:003,673 MW3,557 MW
19 Sept, 16:003,706 MW3,570 MW
19 Sept, 17:003,720 MW3,618 MW
19 Sept, 18:003,723 MW3,667 MW
19 Sept, 19:003,743 MW3,688 MW
19 Sept, 20:003,724 MW3,674 MW
19 Sept, 21:003,654 MW3,604 MW
19 Sept, 22:003,606 MW3,533 MW
19 Sept, 23:003,534 MW3,459 MW
20 Sept, 00:003,478 MW3,405 MW
20 Sept, 01:003,436 MW3,390 MW
20 Sept, 02:003,393 MW3,356 MW
20 Sept, 03:003,369 MW3,354 MW
20 Sept, 04:003,362 MW3,328 MW
20 Sept, 05:003,378 MW3,303 MW
20 Sept, 06:003,423 MW3,347 MW
20 Sept, 07:003,460 MW3,400 MW
20 Sept, 08:00n/a3,478 MW
20 Sept, 09:003,662 MW3,532 MW
20 Sept, 10:003,739 MW3,576 MW
20 Sept, 11:003,729 MW3,583 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,712 MW3,568 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,671 MW3,568 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (683 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.