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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BPA was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 469 MW (6.5%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BPA was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 469 MW (6.5%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BPA came 4 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 108 MW, against average demand of 7,005 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 51% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.5%
Bias+0.2%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss469 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+16 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 469 MW (6.5%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 7,700 MW, reported 7,231 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
BPA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BPA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BPA over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:008,129 MW8,296 MW
29 Oct, 08:008,211 MW8,291 MW
29 Oct, 09:008,108 MW8,132 MW
29 Oct, 10:007,951 MW7,923 MW
29 Oct, 11:007,751 MW7,731 MW
29 Oct, 12:007,590 MW7,555 MW
29 Oct, 13:007,438 MW7,436 MW
29 Oct, 14:007,331 MW7,325 MW
29 Oct, 15:007,307 MW7,292 MW
29 Oct, 16:007,435 MW7,391 MW
29 Oct, 17:007,649 MW7,646 MW
29 Oct, 18:007,873 MW7,886 MW
29 Oct, 19:007,876 MW7,889 MW
29 Oct, 20:007,714 MW7,763 MW
29 Oct, 21:007,478 MW7,512 MW
29 Oct, 22:007,116 MW7,158 MW
29 Oct, 23:006,801 MW6,878 MW
30 Oct, 00:006,642 MW6,869 MW
30 Oct, 01:006,522 MW6,739 MW
30 Oct, 02:006,514 MW6,724 MW
30 Oct, 03:006,519 MW6,756 MW
30 Oct, 04:006,741 MW6,936 MW
30 Oct, 05:007,161 MW7,320 MW
30 Oct, 06:007,745 MW7,874 MW
30 Oct, 07:008,065 MW8,249 MW
30 Oct, 08:008,180 MW8,318 MW
30 Oct, 09:008,159 MW8,283 MW
30 Oct, 10:008,069 MW8,144 MW
30 Oct, 11:007,928 MW7,986 MW
30 Oct, 12:007,794 MW7,818 MW
30 Oct, 13:007,680 MW7,680 MW
30 Oct, 14:007,533 MW7,565 MW
30 Oct, 15:007,430 MW7,524 MW
30 Oct, 16:007,484 MW7,593 MW
30 Oct, 17:007,625 MW7,765 MW
30 Oct, 18:007,768 MW7,918 MW
30 Oct, 19:007,723 MW7,862 MW
30 Oct, 20:007,650 MW7,726 MW
30 Oct, 21:007,449 MW7,527 MW
30 Oct, 22:007,197 MW7,247 MW
30 Oct, 23:006,973 MW6,990 MW
31 Oct, 00:006,806 MW6,795 MW
31 Oct, 01:006,770 MW6,698 MW
31 Oct, 02:006,734 MW6,710 MW
31 Oct, 03:006,815 MW6,747 MW
31 Oct, 04:006,922 MW6,896 MW
31 Oct, 05:007,207 MW7,145 MW
31 Oct, 06:007,633 MW7,512 MW
31 Oct, 07:007,973 MW7,908 MW
31 Oct, 08:008,308 MW8,200 MW
31 Oct, 09:008,344 MW8,279 MW
31 Oct, 10:008,163 MW8,111 MW
31 Oct, 11:007,935 MW7,909 MW
31 Oct, 12:007,661 MW7,531 MW
31 Oct, 13:007,436 MW7,366 MW
31 Oct, 14:007,286 MW7,206 MW
31 Oct, 15:007,172 MW7,281 MW
31 Oct, 16:007,177 MW7,412 MW
31 Oct, 17:007,270 MW7,456 MW
31 Oct, 18:007,322 MW7,379 MW
31 Oct, 19:007,309 MW7,230 MW
31 Oct, 20:007,262 MW7,139 MW
31 Oct, 21:007,169 MW7,046 MW
31 Oct, 22:006,995 MW7,012 MW
31 Oct, 23:006,762 MW6,805 MW
1 Nov, 00:006,610 MW6,763 MW
1 Nov, 01:006,559 MW6,710 MW
1 Nov, 01:006,505 MW6,710 MW
1 Nov, 02:006,517 MW6,731 MW
1 Nov, 03:006,557 MW6,775 MW
1 Nov, 04:006,706 MW6,920 MW
1 Nov, 05:007,007 MW7,180 MW
1 Nov, 06:007,345 MW7,518 MW
1 Nov, 07:007,719 MW7,784 MW
1 Nov, 08:007,898 MW7,943 MW
1 Nov, 09:007,888 MW7,807 MW
1 Nov, 10:007,729 MW7,538 MW
1 Nov, 11:007,565 MW7,317 MW
1 Nov, 12:007,452 MW7,203 MW
1 Nov, 13:007,354 MW7,195 MW
1 Nov, 14:007,270 MW7,132 MW
1 Nov, 15:007,326 MW7,204 MW
1 Nov, 16:007,545 MW7,520 MW
1 Nov, 17:007,902 MW7,897 MW
1 Nov, 18:007,893 MW7,923 MW
1 Nov, 19:007,777 MW7,870 MW
1 Nov, 20:007,566 MW7,724 MW
1 Nov, 21:007,266 MW7,473 MW
1 Nov, 22:006,973 MW7,199 MW
1 Nov, 23:006,682 MW6,981 MW
2 Nov, 00:006,587 MW6,973 MW
2 Nov, 01:006,550 MW6,829 MW
2 Nov, 02:006,577 MW6,875 MW
2 Nov, 03:006,710 MW7,002 MW
2 Nov, 04:006,990 MW7,306 MW
2 Nov, 05:007,554 MW7,888 MW
2 Nov, 06:008,210 MW8,547 MW
2 Nov, 07:008,542 MW8,892 MW
2 Nov, 08:008,438 MW8,739 MW
2 Nov, 09:008,193 MW8,480 MW
2 Nov, 10:007,913 MW8,182 MW
2 Nov, 11:007,689 MW7,954 MW
2 Nov, 12:007,515 MW7,741 MW
2 Nov, 13:007,483 MW7,595 MW
2 Nov, 14:007,408 MW7,521 MW
2 Nov, 15:007,469 MW7,555 MW
2 Nov, 16:007,742 MW7,844 MW
2 Nov, 17:008,069 MW8,219 MW
2 Nov, 18:008,020 MW8,247 MW
2 Nov, 19:007,881 MW8,131 MW
2 Nov, 20:007,714 MW7,953 MW
2 Nov, 21:007,397 MW7,629 MW
2 Nov, 22:006,979 MW7,296 MW
2 Nov, 23:006,713 MW7,019 MW
3 Nov, 00:006,522 MW6,797 MW
3 Nov, 01:006,454 MW6,587 MW
3 Nov, 02:006,428 MW6,567 MW
3 Nov, 03:006,481 MW6,648 MW
3 Nov, 04:006,703 MW6,917 MW
3 Nov, 05:007,211 MW7,453 MW
3 Nov, 06:007,792 MW8,086 MW
3 Nov, 07:008,075 MW8,347 MW
3 Nov, 08:008,025 MW8,232 MW
3 Nov, 09:007,885 MW8,006 MW
3 Nov, 10:007,896 MW7,734 MW
3 Nov, 11:007,507 MW7,525 MW
3 Nov, 12:007,342 MW7,371 MW
3 Nov, 13:007,264 MW7,266 MW
3 Nov, 14:007,161 MW7,189 MW
3 Nov, 15:007,236 MW7,249 MW
3 Nov, 16:007,489 MW7,546 MW
3 Nov, 17:007,830 MW7,929 MW
3 Nov, 18:007,874 MW7,957 MW
3 Nov, 19:007,765 MW7,857 MW
3 Nov, 20:007,614 MW7,729 MW
3 Nov, 21:007,359 MW7,424 MW
3 Nov, 22:007,001 MW7,092 MW
3 Nov, 23:006,770 MW6,835 MW
4 Nov, 00:006,617 MW6,664 MW
4 Nov, 01:006,610 MW6,461 MW
4 Nov, 02:006,590 MW6,477 MW
4 Nov, 03:006,686 MW6,565 MW
4 Nov, 04:006,958 MW6,827 MW
4 Nov, 05:007,524 MW7,389 MW
4 Nov, 06:008,251 MW8,015 MW
4 Nov, 07:008,546 MW8,320 MW
4 Nov, 08:008,398 MW8,195 MW
4 Nov, 09:008,101 MW7,912 MW
4 Nov, 10:007,762 MW7,666 MW
4 Nov, 11:007,554 MW7,394 MW
4 Nov, 12:007,415 MW7,239 MW
4 Nov, 13:007,302 MW7,143 MW
4 Nov, 14:007,288 MW7,073 MW
4 Nov, 15:007,340 MW7,146 MW
4 Nov, 16:007,649 MW7,415 MW
4 Nov, 17:007,941 MW7,782 MW
4 Nov, 18:007,919 MW7,781 MW
4 Nov, 19:007,809 MW7,652 MW
4 Nov, 20:007,643 MW7,481 MW
4 Nov, 21:007,333 MW7,213 MW
4 Nov, 22:006,934 MW6,860 MW
4 Nov, 23:006,605 MW6,611 MW
5 Nov, 00:006,476 MW6,451 MW
5 Nov, 01:006,320 MW6,391 MW
5 Nov, 02:006,240 MW6,387 MW
5 Nov, 03:006,306 MW6,438 MW
5 Nov, 04:006,532 MW6,672 MW
5 Nov, 05:007,045 MW7,167 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bpa_2026,
  title = {{BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/}
}

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