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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 21 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,685 MW (17.8%) too high at 5 Sept 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,685 MW (17.8%) too high at 5 Sept 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLE came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 249 MW, against average demand of 8,267 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 37% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.0%
Bias-0.5%
Hours within 5%84%
Worst miss1,685 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-65 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,685 MW (17.8%) too high at 5 Sept 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 11,131 MW, reported 9,446 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 21:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
CPLE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 21:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 13 Sept, 22:0014 Sept, 22:0015 Sept, 22:0016 Sept, 22:0017 Sept, 22:0018 Sept, 22:0019 Sept, 22:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 21:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
CPLE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 22:008,582 MW8,155 MW
13 Sept, 23:007,832 MW7,466 MW
14 Sept, 00:007,236 MW6,960 MW
14 Sept, 01:006,805 MW6,524 MW
14 Sept, 02:006,489 MW6,210 MW
14 Sept, 03:006,322 MW6,026 MW
14 Sept, 04:006,297 MW6,033 MW
14 Sept, 05:006,509 MW6,314 MW
14 Sept, 06:006,931 MW6,735 MW
14 Sept, 07:007,161 MW7,022 MW
14 Sept, 08:007,434 MW7,315 MW
14 Sept, 09:008,048 MW7,816 MW
14 Sept, 10:008,843 MW8,504 MW
14 Sept, 11:009,762 MW9,261 MW
14 Sept, 12:0010,538 MW9,962 MW
14 Sept, 13:0011,163 MW10,532 MW
14 Sept, 14:0011,537 MW10,919 MW
14 Sept, 15:0011,770 MW11,127 MW
14 Sept, 16:0011,891 MW11,199 MW
14 Sept, 17:0011,790 MW11,090 MW
14 Sept, 18:0011,446 MW10,809 MW
14 Sept, 19:0011,004 MW10,327 MW
14 Sept, 20:0010,452 MW9,770 MW
14 Sept, 21:009,675 MW8,996 MW
14 Sept, 22:008,789 MW8,158 MW
14 Sept, 23:007,983 MW7,368 MW
15 Sept, 00:007,265 MW7,098 MW
15 Sept, 01:006,731 MW6,594 MW
15 Sept, 02:006,326 MW6,222 MW
15 Sept, 03:006,083 MW5,998 MW
15 Sept, 04:005,996 MW5,946 MW
15 Sept, 05:006,158 MW6,171 MW
15 Sept, 06:006,531 MW6,518 MW
15 Sept, 07:006,657 MW6,683 MW
15 Sept, 08:006,758 MW6,738 MW
15 Sept, 09:007,024 MW6,907 MW
15 Sept, 10:007,430 MW7,233 MW
15 Sept, 11:007,844 MW7,657 MW
15 Sept, 12:008,333 MW8,118 MW
15 Sept, 13:008,725 MW8,572 MW
15 Sept, 14:009,136 MW8,993 MW
15 Sept, 15:009,510 MW9,314 MW
15 Sept, 16:009,704 MW9,494 MW
15 Sept, 17:009,803 MW9,466 MW
15 Sept, 18:009,523 MW9,263 MW
15 Sept, 19:009,041 MW8,881 MW
15 Sept, 20:008,635 MW8,439 MW
15 Sept, 21:007,937 MW7,815 MW
15 Sept, 22:007,159 MW7,139 MW
15 Sept, 23:006,498 MW6,490 MW
16 Sept, 00:005,951 MW5,987 MW
16 Sept, 01:005,582 MW5,612 MW
16 Sept, 02:005,323 MW5,351 MW
16 Sept, 03:005,194 MW5,209 MW
16 Sept, 04:005,202 MW5,232 MW
16 Sept, 05:005,408 MW5,524 MW
16 Sept, 06:005,857 MW5,927 MW
16 Sept, 07:006,032 MW6,146 MW
16 Sept, 08:006,137 MW6,240 MW
16 Sept, 09:006,472 MW6,469 MW
16 Sept, 10:007,009 MW6,877 MW
16 Sept, 11:007,563 MW7,403 MW
16 Sept, 12:008,155 MW7,958 MW
16 Sept, 13:008,744 MW8,471 MW
16 Sept, 14:009,242 MW8,947 MW
16 Sept, 15:009,648 MW9,339 MW
16 Sept, 16:009,967 MW9,610 MW
16 Sept, 17:0010,030 MW9,625 MW
16 Sept, 18:009,810 MW9,424 MW
16 Sept, 19:009,274 MW9,032 MW
16 Sept, 20:008,796 MW8,573 MW
16 Sept, 21:008,065 MW7,929 MW
16 Sept, 22:007,249 MW7,240 MW
16 Sept, 23:006,564 MW6,560 MW
17 Sept, 00:005,996 MW6,138 MW
17 Sept, 01:005,641 MW5,763 MW
17 Sept, 02:005,357 MW5,496 MW
17 Sept, 03:005,197 MW5,356 MW
17 Sept, 04:005,218 MW5,385 MW
17 Sept, 05:005,435 MW5,671 MW
17 Sept, 06:005,980 MW6,067 MW
17 Sept, 07:006,117 MW6,300 MW
17 Sept, 08:006,317 MW6,450 MW
17 Sept, 09:006,666 MW6,769 MW
17 Sept, 10:007,260 MW7,301 MW
17 Sept, 11:007,872 MW7,936 MW
17 Sept, 12:008,611 MW8,605 MW
17 Sept, 13:009,314 MW9,238 MW
17 Sept, 14:009,893 MW9,793 MW
17 Sept, 15:0010,362 MW10,183 MW
17 Sept, 16:0010,735 MW10,438 MW
17 Sept, 17:0010,803 MW10,450 MW
17 Sept, 18:0010,536 MW10,279 MW
17 Sept, 19:009,982 MW9,877 MW
17 Sept, 20:009,357 MW9,362 MW
17 Sept, 21:008,648 MW8,604 MW
17 Sept, 22:007,905 MW7,805 MW
17 Sept, 23:007,136 MW7,102 MW
18 Sept, 00:006,625 MW6,653 MW
18 Sept, 01:006,270 MW6,241 MW
18 Sept, 02:006,001 MW5,935 MW
18 Sept, 03:005,842 MW5,766 MW
18 Sept, 04:005,860 MW5,768 MW
18 Sept, 05:006,115 MW6,027 MW
18 Sept, 06:006,543 MW6,420 MW
18 Sept, 07:006,728 MW6,712 MW
18 Sept, 08:006,971 MW7,008 MW
18 Sept, 09:007,435 MW7,516 MW
18 Sept, 10:008,144 MW8,220 MW
18 Sept, 11:008,968 MW8,999 MW
18 Sept, 12:009,840 MW9,735 MW
18 Sept, 13:0010,674 MW10,324 MW
18 Sept, 14:0011,258 MW10,763 MW
18 Sept, 15:0011,421 MW11,067 MW
18 Sept, 16:0011,330 MW11,204 MW
18 Sept, 17:0011,039 MW11,098 MW
18 Sept, 18:0010,377 MW10,798 MW
18 Sept, 19:009,804 MW10,322 MW
18 Sept, 20:009,285 MW9,845 MW
18 Sept, 21:008,698 MW9,162 MW
18 Sept, 22:008,137 MW8,451 MW
18 Sept, 23:007,502 MW7,759 MW
19 Sept, 00:006,965 MW7,193 MW
19 Sept, 01:006,533 MW6,709 MW
19 Sept, 02:006,255 MW6,350 MW
19 Sept, 03:006,058 MW6,115 MW
19 Sept, 04:005,962 MW5,997 MW
19 Sept, 05:005,983 MW6,005 MW
19 Sept, 06:006,074 MW6,081 MW
19 Sept, 07:006,236 MW6,279 MW
19 Sept, 08:006,624 MW6,685 MW
19 Sept, 09:007,143 MW7,222 MW
19 Sept, 10:007,801 MW7,780 MW
19 Sept, 11:008,383 MW8,299 MW
19 Sept, 12:008,896 MW8,759 MW
19 Sept, 13:009,366 MW9,148 MW
19 Sept, 14:009,671 MW9,392 MW
19 Sept, 15:009,893 MW9,517 MW
19 Sept, 16:0010,009 MW9,538 MW
19 Sept, 17:009,988 MW9,439 MW
19 Sept, 18:009,693 MW9,188 MW
19 Sept, 19:009,291 MW8,846 MW
19 Sept, 20:008,753 MW8,516 MW
19 Sept, 21:008,224 MW8,014 MW
19 Sept, 22:007,600 MW7,482 MW
19 Sept, 23:006,967 MW6,931 MW
20 Sept, 00:006,495 MW6,425 MW
20 Sept, 01:006,041 MW5,976 MW
20 Sept, 02:005,712 MW5,638 MW
20 Sept, 03:005,487 MW5,423 MW
20 Sept, 04:005,375 MW5,300 MW
20 Sept, 05:005,324 MW5,285 MW
20 Sept, 06:005,388 MW5,333 MW
20 Sept, 07:005,542 MW5,530 MW
20 Sept, 08:005,999 MW5,938 MW
20 Sept, 09:006,528 MW6,481 MW
20 Sept, 10:007,255 MW7,075 MW
20 Sept, 11:008,023 MW7,729 MW
20 Sept, 12:008,796 MW8,397 MW
20 Sept, 13:009,423 MW8,988 MW
20 Sept, 14:009,884 MW9,446 MW
20 Sept, 15:0010,177 MW9,772 MW
20 Sept, 16:0010,379 MW9,945 MW
20 Sept, 17:0010,444 MW9,926 MW
20 Sept, 18:0010,292 MW9,736 MW
20 Sept, 19:009,903 MW9,344 MW
20 Sept, 20:009,383 MW8,900 MW
20 Sept, 21:008,649 MW8,249 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.