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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,146 MW (20.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,146 MW (20.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLE came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 199 MW, against average demand of 5,985 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 54% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.5%
Bias+1.3%
Hours within 5%78%
Worst miss1,146 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+62 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,146 MW (20.1%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 6,850 MW, reported 5,704 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
CPLE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:005,782 MW5,768 MW
29 Oct, 11:005,874 MW5,828 MW
29 Oct, 12:006,006 MW5,938 MW
29 Oct, 13:006,187 MW6,076 MW
29 Oct, 14:006,348 MW6,238 MW
29 Oct, 15:006,503 MW6,416 MW
29 Oct, 16:006,691 MW6,575 MW
29 Oct, 17:006,810 MW6,667 MW
29 Oct, 18:006,890 MW6,694 MW
29 Oct, 19:006,923 MW6,663 MW
29 Oct, 20:006,667 MW6,432 MW
29 Oct, 21:006,353 MW6,034 MW
29 Oct, 22:005,881 MW5,599 MW
29 Oct, 23:005,390 MW5,206 MW
30 Oct, 00:005,049 MW4,870 MW
30 Oct, 01:004,803 MW4,677 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,685 MW4,559 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,623 MW4,531 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,724 MW4,654 MW
30 Oct, 05:005,045 MW5,036 MW
30 Oct, 06:005,621 MW5,594 MW
30 Oct, 07:005,927 MW5,922 MW
30 Oct, 08:005,901 MW5,933 MW
30 Oct, 09:005,758 MW5,823 MW
30 Oct, 10:005,757 MW5,809 MW
30 Oct, 11:005,868 MW5,891 MW
30 Oct, 12:006,013 MW6,048 MW
30 Oct, 13:006,214 MW6,252 MW
30 Oct, 14:006,441 MW6,465 MW
30 Oct, 15:006,674 MW6,689 MW
30 Oct, 16:006,924 MW6,838 MW
30 Oct, 17:007,000 MW6,866 MW
30 Oct, 18:006,843 MW6,755 MW
30 Oct, 19:006,640 MW6,572 MW
30 Oct, 20:006,370 MW6,242 MW
30 Oct, 21:006,021 MW5,864 MW
30 Oct, 22:005,670 MW5,464 MW
30 Oct, 23:005,265 MW5,101 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,955 MW4,779 MW
31 Oct, 01:004,738 MW4,542 MW
31 Oct, 02:004,582 MW4,376 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,496 MW4,296 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,499 MW4,310 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,596 MW4,418 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,802 MW4,657 MW
31 Oct, 07:005,039 MW4,955 MW
31 Oct, 08:005,342 MW5,220 MW
31 Oct, 09:005,438 MW5,308 MW
31 Oct, 10:005,433 MW5,304 MW
31 Oct, 11:005,466 MW5,243 MW
31 Oct, 12:005,442 MW5,188 MW
31 Oct, 13:005,445 MW5,125 MW
31 Oct, 14:005,483 MW5,143 MW
31 Oct, 15:005,563 MW5,207 MW
31 Oct, 16:005,692 MW5,346 MW
31 Oct, 17:005,681 MW5,541 MW
31 Oct, 18:005,681 MW5,791 MW
31 Oct, 19:005,670 MW5,937 MW
31 Oct, 20:005,669 MW5,890 MW
31 Oct, 21:005,561 MW5,681 MW
31 Oct, 22:005,364 MW5,453 MW
31 Oct, 23:005,093 MW5,131 MW
1 Nov, 00:005,093 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:004,738 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:004,582 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:004,496 MWn/a
1 Nov, 03:004,499 MWn/a
1 Nov, 04:004,596 MWn/a
1 Nov, 05:004,802 MWn/a
1 Nov, 06:005,039 MWn/a
1 Nov, 07:005,342 MWn/a
1 Nov, 08:005,438 MWn/a
1 Nov, 09:005,433 MWn/a
1 Nov, 10:005,466 MWn/a
1 Nov, 11:005,442 MWn/a
1 Nov, 12:005,445 MWn/a
1 Nov, 13:005,483 MWn/a
1 Nov, 14:005,563 MWn/a
1 Nov, 15:005,692 MWn/a
1 Nov, 16:005,681 MWn/a
1 Nov, 17:005,681 MWn/a
1 Nov, 18:005,670 MWn/a
1 Nov, 19:005,669 MWn/a
1 Nov, 20:005,561 MWn/a
1 Nov, 21:005,364 MWn/a
1 Nov, 22:005,093 MWn/a
1 Nov, 23:00n/an/a
2 Nov, 00:004,825 MW4,993 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,697 MW4,859 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,633 MW4,798 MW
2 Nov, 03:004,678 MW4,828 MW
2 Nov, 04:004,819 MW5,032 MW
2 Nov, 05:005,246 MW5,513 MW
2 Nov, 06:005,894 MW6,081 MW
2 Nov, 07:006,104 MW6,287 MW
2 Nov, 08:006,077 MW6,142 MW
2 Nov, 09:006,047 MW5,922 MW
2 Nov, 10:005,994 MW5,784 MW
2 Nov, 11:005,916 MW5,713 MW
2 Nov, 12:005,889 MW5,692 MW
2 Nov, 13:005,872 MW5,712 MW
2 Nov, 14:005,883 MW5,742 MW
2 Nov, 15:006,003 MW5,855 MW
2 Nov, 16:006,271 MW6,095 MW
2 Nov, 17:006,610 MW6,443 MW
2 Nov, 18:006,766 MW6,630 MW
2 Nov, 19:006,615 MW6,603 MW
2 Nov, 20:006,351 MW6,339 MW
2 Nov, 21:006,010 MW6,052 MW
2 Nov, 22:005,590 MW5,704 MW
2 Nov, 23:005,221 MW5,354 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,987 MW5,178 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,823 MW5,038 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,737 MW4,964 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,730 MW4,968 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,864 MW5,145 MW
3 Nov, 05:005,228 MW5,567 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,766 MW6,080 MW
3 Nov, 07:005,945 MW6,279 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,878 MW6,167 MW
3 Nov, 09:005,888 MW6,027 MW
3 Nov, 10:005,961 MW6,028 MW
3 Nov, 11:006,096 MW6,101 MW
3 Nov, 12:006,239 MW6,210 MW
3 Nov, 13:006,461 MW6,334 MW
3 Nov, 14:006,587 MW6,441 MW
3 Nov, 15:006,670 MW6,543 MW
3 Nov, 16:006,826 MW6,679 MW
3 Nov, 17:006,939 MW6,821 MW
3 Nov, 18:006,975 MW6,773 MW
3 Nov, 19:006,792 MW6,551 MW
3 Nov, 20:006,537 MW6,191 MW
3 Nov, 21:006,151 MW5,859 MW
3 Nov, 22:005,701 MW5,482 MW
3 Nov, 23:005,283 MW5,111 MW
4 Nov, 00:004,987 MW4,804 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,796 MW4,641 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,690 MW4,546 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,670 MW4,517 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,813 MW4,671 MW
4 Nov, 05:005,179 MW5,109 MW
4 Nov, 06:005,766 MW5,654 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,968 MW5,892 MW
4 Nov, 08:006,019 MW5,888 MW
4 Nov, 09:006,057 MW5,932 MW
4 Nov, 10:006,164 MW6,091 MW
4 Nov, 11:006,303 MW6,261 MW
4 Nov, 12:006,520 MW6,466 MW
4 Nov, 13:006,719 MW6,699 MW
4 Nov, 14:006,825 MW6,881 MW
4 Nov, 15:006,967 MW7,007 MW
4 Nov, 16:007,049 MW7,165 MW
4 Nov, 17:007,263 MW7,330 MW
4 Nov, 18:007,329 MW7,296 MW
4 Nov, 19:007,116 MW7,046 MW
4 Nov, 20:006,838 MW6,678 MW
4 Nov, 21:006,464 MW6,278 MW
4 Nov, 22:005,975 MW5,817 MW
4 Nov, 23:005,536 MW5,386 MW
5 Nov, 00:005,289 MW5,129 MW
5 Nov, 01:005,048 MW4,911 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,915 MW4,757 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,859 MW4,707 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,942 MW4,830 MW
5 Nov, 05:005,254 MW5,227 MW
5 Nov, 06:005,904 MW5,744 MW
5 Nov, 07:006,117 MW6,023 MW
5 Nov, 08:006,238 MW6,118 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cple_2026,
  title = {{CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/}
}

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